Israel's refusal to withdraw forces from southern Lebanon, despite a US-brokered ceasefire framework tied to the June 15 US-Iran agreement ending broader hostilities, anchors current trader assessments. Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz stated on June 15-16 that troops would remain indefinitely in occupied areas to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting withdrawal as a precondition for any deal. Hezbollah rejected earlier June 3-4 ceasefire terms agreed by Israel and Lebanon, insisting on full Israeli exit south of the Litani River before halting operations. Limited tactical pullbacks have occurred in spots like Dibbine, enabling Lebanese and UNIFIL repositioning, but broader diplomatic extensions of the April truce and US pressure have not altered Israel's security zone policy. Future US-Iran implementation steps or renewed Hezbollah attacks could influence timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLebanese sources report Israeli troop withdrawal from southern pilot zones could begin within hours
Lebanese sources indicated major progress in ceasefire negotiations in Rome, with Israeli troop withdrawal from southern pilot zones expected imminently. Despite this, Israel denied the report, and no official announcement was made, maintaining market skepticism.
Lebanon and Israel take steps toward implementing withdrawal agreement after Rome talks
Following US-mediated talks in Rome, Lebanon and Israel moved toward creating pilot zones in southern Lebanon where Israeli forces would withdraw and hand control to the Lebanese army, but no full withdrawal was announced, keeping market prices low.
Netanyahu reaffirms Israeli military presence in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah disarms
Prime Minister Netanyahu visited troops in southern Lebanon and reaffirmed that Israeli forces will remain in the security zone for as long as Hezbollah remains a threat, effectively ruling out a full withdrawal by the market's resolution dates. This solidified market expectations of a 'No' outcome for withdrawal by the specified deadlines.
Israeli envoy confirms IDF to begin withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones soon
August 31 dips to 2%1%
Israeli envoy Yechiel Leiter stated that Israeli forces would start withdrawing from pilot zones in southern Lebanon in the coming days, contingent on Hezbollah's removal and Lebanese army control. This statement did not indicate full withdrawal, keeping market probabilities near historic lows.
Lebanon and Israel take steps toward implementing withdrawal agreement after Rome talks
September 30 dips to 6%1%
Following two days of US-mediated talks in Rome, Lebanon and Israel agreed on the structure and guidelines for implementing pilot zones in southern Lebanon where Israeli forces would withdraw and Lebanese army would take control. However, no full withdrawal announcement was made, and Hezbollah opposition persisted.
Israeli envoy states withdrawal depends on Hezbollah disarmament
December 31 dips to 12%1%
Israeli envoy Yechiel Leiter emphasized that the withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones depends on Hezbollah being removed and Lebanese forces taking control, signaling conditional and incomplete withdrawal, which suppressed market optimism for full withdrawal by year-end.
US officials confirm steps toward implementing Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones
December 31 dips to 12%1%
Following the Rome talks, US officials confirmed progress toward implementing the withdrawal agreement, with Israeli forces set to pull back from pilot zones and Lebanese forces to take control, but no full withdrawal announcement was made, keeping market prices near lows.
Lebanon and Israel take steps toward implementing withdrawal pilot zones after US-mediated talks in Rome
September 30 dips to 5%2%
Following two days of US-mediated talks, Lebanon and Israel agreed on the structure and guidelines for the pilot zone process, moving toward implementation. However, no immediate withdrawal announcement was made, and market prices remained low.
Lebanon and Israel resume talks in Rome on troop withdrawal and Hezbollah disarmament
December 31 rises to 13%1%
Lebanese and Israeli officials resumed US-mediated talks in Rome to establish a practical sequence for ending the conflict, withdrawing Israeli forces from the south, and expanding Lebanese army control. The talks focused on pilot zones and conditions for withdrawal, but no full withdrawal was announced, keeping market prices low.
Lebanon and Israel hold US-mediated talks in Rome on withdrawal implementation
December 31 drops to 13%5%
Lebanese and Israeli delegations met in Rome for US-mediated talks to implement the pilot zone withdrawals. Lebanon demanded immediate Israeli withdrawal from these zones before further discussions, indicating ongoing negotiation challenges and delaying full withdrawal prospects.
Israel signals readiness to advance withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones as Rome talks begin
July 31 dips to 1%2%
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar stated Israel's preparedness to move forward with withdrawing from two pilot areas in southern Lebanon during US-mediated talks in Rome. This indicated diplomatic progress but no full withdrawal announcement, keeping market prices low.
US and Lebanese delegations meet in Beirut to discuss Israeli withdrawal implementation
July 31 dips to 6%2%
Military delegations from the US and Lebanon met to establish mechanisms for implementing the first phase of the US-brokered framework agreement, focusing on the pilot zones. The lack of a set timetable and Hezbollah's rejection of the deal kept market confidence low.
US and Lebanese delegations meet to discuss implementation of Israeli withdrawal pilot zones
Military delegations from the US and Lebanon met in Beirut to work out mechanisms for implementing the first phase of the US-brokered framework agreement, focusing on pilot zones for Israeli withdrawal, indicating progress but no full withdrawal announcement yet.
US and Lebanese delegations meet to discuss Israeli withdrawal pilot zones
Military delegations from the US and Lebanon met in Beirut to establish mechanisms for implementing the first phase of Israeli withdrawal from designated pilot zones. Hezbollah rejected the agreement, and Israeli officials maintained forces would remain in a security zone as long as Hezbollah is armed, sustaining market doubts about full withdrawal.
US to oversee phased Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon pilot zones
US and Lebanese officials confirmed that Washington would supervise the gradual Israeli military pullback from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon under the June 26 framework agreement. This marked the beginning of a phased withdrawal but fell short of a full withdrawal announcement, keeping market prices low.
US and Lebanese delegations meet in Beirut to discuss Israeli withdrawal pilot zones
August 31 dips to 2%1%
Military delegations from the US and Lebanon met to work out implementation mechanisms for the first phase of the US-brokered framework agreement, focusing on pilot zones but with no set timetable for full Israeli withdrawal, maintaining market doubts.
Israeli army prepares to withdraw from pilot areas in southern Lebanon within days
Reports emerged that the Israeli army intended to withdraw from some pilot areas in southern Lebanon in parallel with ongoing negotiations in Rome. However, no official announcement of full withdrawal was made, and the move was seen as limited and symbolic, causing only minor market price changes.
US to oversee Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones and lead new talks
December 31 drops to 12%5%
The US announced it would guide the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon and lead further negotiations, but no timetable for full withdrawal was set, maintaining market pessimism about a complete withdrawal by the end of 2026.
Israel continues military presence in southern Lebanon amid stalled withdrawal talks
Despite the framework agreement, Israeli officials including Netanyahu reaffirmed that forces will remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed, while Hezbollah rejects the deal, maintaining a stalemate and low market confidence in withdrawal by year-end.
Reports confirm Israel does not intend full withdrawal from Lebanon without Hezbollah disarmament
Reports indicated Israel will maintain a 10-kilometer security zone in southern Lebanon and link any full withdrawal to Hezbollah's disarmament, which is unlikely soon, reducing market expectations for a complete withdrawal by year-end.
Israel publicly states no intention for full withdrawal without Hezbollah disarmament
On July 10, 2026, Israeli government sources publicly declared that Israel does not intend to fully withdraw from Lebanon unless Hezbollah is disarmed, maintaining a security zone. This official position further diminished market expectations for a full withdrawal by the end of 2026.
US delegation to oversee Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones
September 30 rises to 7%2%
A US military delegation was expected to arrive in Lebanon to oversee the implementation of Israel's withdrawal from pilot zones, reinforcing the gradual nature of the withdrawal process and the conditionality on Hezbollah disarmament.
US delegation to oversee Israeli withdrawal implementation in Lebanon
A US military delegation was expected to arrive in Beirut to oversee the implementation of Israel's withdrawal from pilot zones, indicating ongoing but slow progress. The agreement still tied withdrawal to Hezbollah disarmament, limiting market optimism.
US delegation to oversee Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones in Lebanon
December 31 dips to 18%4%
A US military delegation was announced to arrive in Beirut to oversee the implementation of Israel's withdrawal from designated pilot zones, emphasizing the gradual and conditional nature of the withdrawal, which kept market prices low for full withdrawal by year-end.
US to oversee Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones in southern Lebanon
July 31 dips to 1%2%
On July 9, 2026, Lebanese and US officials announced that the United States would oversee the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the two pilot zones in southern Lebanon, with the first withdrawal expected within days. However, no timeline was given for a full withdrawal, keeping market expectations low for complete Israeli exit by the deadlines.
US official says Israeli withdrawal from first pilot zone in southern Lebanon imminent
July 31 plunges to 1%15%
A US official announced that Israel's withdrawal from the first pilot zone in southern Lebanon would begin within days, despite Lebanon's refusal to attend further talks until withdrawal occurs, reflecting ongoing delays and conditional progress.
Lebanon demands Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones before next peace talks
September 30 rises to 7%1%
Lebanese officials demanded Israel fulfill its pledge to withdraw from two pilot zones and hand them over to the Lebanese military before participating in upcoming peace talks, highlighting ongoing disputes and delaying progress toward full withdrawal.
US to oversee Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones; talks to continue in Rome
On July 9, US officials announced that American military delegations would oversee the implementation of Israel's withdrawal from the pilot zones in southern Lebanon, with further technical talks scheduled in Rome. However, no timeline for full withdrawal was set, maintaining market doubts about a complete exit by July 31 or later.
US to oversee Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones; talks to continue
December 31 drops to 12%10%
US officials announced they would oversee gradual Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones in southern Lebanon, but emphasized withdrawal was conditional on Hezbollah disarmament, with no set timetable, maintaining market pessimism about full withdrawal by deadlines.
Netanyahu reiterates Israeli forces will remain in Lebanon as long as necessary
Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would stay in the security zone in southern Lebanon for as long as needed to guarantee northern Israeli communities' security, signaling no imminent full withdrawal and maintaining market skepticism.
U.S.-Iran peace deal collapses amid Persian Gulf airstrikes
December 31 dips to 12%2%
The collapse of the U.S.-Iran Islamabad MOU peace deal and subsequent military escalation increased regional instability, reducing the likelihood of Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon by any date.
Israeli and Lebanese military begin US-mediated talks on criteria for Hezbollah-free zones
August 31 plunges to 3%26%
US-mediated talks started between Israeli and Lebanese military officers to define criteria for Hezbollah-free zones ahead of a planned trial Israeli withdrawal from two villages, indicating slow progress and conditional withdrawal plans.
IDF strikes several Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon
The IDF announced another round of strikes on Hezbollah positions, confirming ongoing offensive operations and keeping the market at the lowest observed Yes level (1%).
Israeli strikes continue in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire agreement
Israel continued intermittent military strikes targeting Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon despite a two-week-old ceasefire, indicating ongoing hostilities and undermining confidence in a full withdrawal by the market deadlines.
Israel maintains refusal to fully withdraw from Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
July 31 dips to 1%2%
Reports indicated Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon is conditional and tied to Hezbollah’s disarmament, a condition unlikely to be met quickly. Israel continues military operations and occupation, signaling no imminent full withdrawal, which aligns with the market's very low probability for withdrawal by July 31.
Hezbollah rejects US-brokered withdrawal deal; Netanyahu vows to stay
August 31 drops to 3%6%
Hezbollah rejected the US framework tying Israeli withdrawal to its disarmament, while Netanyahu reaffirmed Israeli forces would remain until the Hezbollah threat is eliminated, further reducing market confidence in withdrawal by deadlines.
Reports of Israeli pre-selling land in occupied southern Lebanon and calls for long-term control
December 31 drops to 13%5%
Reports emerged that Israel was pre-selling land in occupied southern Lebanese areas and officials advocated for maintaining long-term control, signaling a de facto extension of occupation. This diminished market expectations for a full withdrawal by any of the specified dates.
Israel rejects full withdrawal, ties it to Hezbollah disarmament; Hezbollah rejects US deal
Israeli officials, including Defense Minister Katz and Prime Minister Netanyahu, reiterated that Israeli forces would not withdraw fully from southern Lebanon until Hezbollah is disarmed. Hezbollah rejected the US-brokered framework agreement, calling it humiliating and null, signaling no immediate full withdrawal and contributing to market price declines.
Hezbollah rejects Israel-Lebanon talks and withdrawal agreement
Hezbollah, not party to the negotiations, rejected the framework agreement and Israel's partial withdrawal, maintaining opposition to Israeli presence and complicating prospects for full withdrawal, reinforcing market skepticism.
Analysis: Israel’s refusal to fully withdraw from Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
August 31 dips to 2%1%
Reports highlighted Israel’s refusal to fully withdraw from Lebanon, linking withdrawal to Hezbollah disarmament and ongoing military actions, suggesting a protracted conflict and diminishing likelihood of full withdrawal by market dates.
Netanyahu reaffirms Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon security zone
July 31 dips to 1%2%
Prime Minister Netanyahu visited troops and stated that Israeli forces would stay in the security zone as long as Hezbollah remains a threat, effectively ruling out a full withdrawal in the near term. This reinforced market expectations of a prolonged Israeli presence.
Analysis suggests Israel will not fully withdraw from Lebanon soon
August 31 dips to 3%1%
An analysis published on July 5, 2026, indicated that Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon is conditional and not immediate, tied to Hezbollah’s disarmament, which is unlikely to happen quickly. This reinforced market skepticism about a full withdrawal by the near-term deadlines.
Netanyahu vows Israeli forces will remain in Lebanon security zone until Hezbollah threat eliminated
In early July, Netanyahu reaffirmed that Israeli forces would stay in the southern Lebanon security zone "for as long as necessary" to protect northern Israeli communities until Hezbollah is disarmed, signaling no imminent full withdrawal and further depressing market prices.
Netanyahu reiterates Israeli forces will remain in Lebanon security zone as long as Hezbollah is armed
July 31 dips to 1%1%
Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would stay in southern Lebanon to protect northern communities until the Hezbollah threat is eliminated, signaling no immediate full withdrawal and reinforcing market skepticism.
Netanyahu states Israel will maintain occupation in southern Lebanon
July 31 drops to 1%11%
Prime Minister Netanyahu declared that Israel will maintain its occupation in southern Lebanon and will not withdraw until Hezbollah is disarmed, reinforcing the deadlock and diminishing market expectations for withdrawal by July 31 or earlier.
Netanyahu reaffirms Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah disarms
December 31 dips to 17%3%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly stated that Israeli forces would stay in southern Lebanon 'for as long as necessary' until the Hezbollah threat is eliminated, reinforcing the conditional nature of withdrawal and further lowering market confidence in a full withdrawal by any date in 2026.
Netanyahu says some Christian-majority villages in southern Lebanon requested annexation by Israel
July 31 dips to 1%1%
Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that certain Christian-majority villages in southern Lebanon sought annexation by Israel for protection from Hezbollah, indicating ongoing Israeli presence and complicating prospects for full withdrawal, which pressured market prices downward.
Netanyahu insists Israeli troops will stay until Hezbollah is disarmed
Netanyahu reiterated that Israeli forces will remain in the security zone until a comprehensive disarmament of Hezbollah is achieved, cementing the market’s low expectations for any withdrawal before the end‑year deadlines.
Reports confirm Israel will not fully withdraw from Lebanon, tying withdrawal to Hezbollah disarmament
July 31 dips to 1%1%
By early July, reports indicated Israel's withdrawal was conditional on Hezbollah's disarmament, a nearly impossible condition, and Israeli officials reiterated no full withdrawal plans, pushing market prices to near zero for earlier withdrawal dates.
Analysis suggests Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon contingent on Hezbollah disarmament, unlikely soon
July 31 dips to 1%2%
Reports highlighted that Israel’s withdrawal is conditional on Hezbollah’s disarmament and threat elimination, making immediate full withdrawal improbable. This analysis contributed to further market price declines.
Israel refuses full withdrawal from Lebanon, ties exit to Hezbollah disarmament
December 31 drops to 12%6%
Reports highlighted Israel's stance that withdrawal from Lebanon would only occur after Hezbollah is disarmed, making a full and immediate withdrawal unlikely and depressing market confidence in earlier withdrawal dates.
Netanyahu states Israel will maintain occupation and some villages seek annexation
December 31 dips to 17%1%
Netanyahu announced Israel's intention to maintain occupation in southern Lebanon and mentioned some Christian-majority villages requested annexation for protection, signaling no imminent full withdrawal and further reducing market optimism.
Netanyahu affirms Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah threat eliminated
Prime Minister Netanyahu visited IDF troops and reiterated that Israeli forces would stay in southern Lebanon 'for as long as necessary' to protect Israeli communities, conditioning withdrawal on Hezbollah disarmament, which Hezbollah refuses. This hardened stance further reduced market expectations of withdrawal by near-term dates.
Netanyahu states Israeli forces will not withdraw while Hezbollah remains armed
July 31 dips to 1%3%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli troops would stay in Lebanon as long as Hezbollah is armed, further diminishing market expectations for withdrawal by July 31.
Lebanon-Israel deal criticized by rights groups for betraying war victims
Human rights groups criticized the Lebanon-Israel framework agreement for failing to ensure Israeli withdrawal and betraying victims of war crimes. This criticism reflected ongoing doubts about the deal's effectiveness and the likelihood of Israeli withdrawal, keeping market prices low.
Israel delays withdrawal from Lebanon amid trust and verification concerns
Negotiations between Israel and Lebanon faced delays due to mutual distrust and the need for robust verification mechanisms before any troop withdrawals, further reducing market confidence in a timely Israeli exit.
Blinken says new US‑Lebanon talks will not address Israeli pull‑back
Blinken announced a new round of talks in Washington aimed at a cease‑fire but made no commitments on Israeli withdrawal, leaving market sentiment unchanged at low levels.
Negotiations Indicate Delays in Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon
August 31 dips to 7%1%
Recent negotiations backed by international mediators revealed delays in the planned Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon. Concerns over trust, verification, Hezbollah's disarmament, and security guarantees have postponed the phased withdrawal outlined in the June 26 framework, further reducing market confidence in withdrawal by earlier dates.
Reports of delays in Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon due to security and verification concerns
August 31 drops to 4%5%
Negotiations backed by international mediators indicated delays in the planned Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, citing trust and verification issues related to Hezbollah disarmament and Lebanese army deployment, reinforcing market doubts about timely withdrawal.
US official confirms imminent IDF withdrawal from first pilot zone in Lebanon
July 31 dips to 1%1%
A US official indicated that Israeli troops would begin withdrawing from the first pilot zone in southern Lebanon within days, marking the start of the phased withdrawal process but without a full withdrawal timetable.
US official confirms Israel has withdrawn from parts of southern Lebanon pilot zones
July 31 dips to 12%2%
A US State Department official stated that Israel had withdrawn from some parts of the southern Lebanon security zone, marking a concrete step under the framework agreement. However, Israeli officials denied a full pullback, maintaining control over key areas. This partial withdrawal was seen as insufficient for full market optimism.
US official announces imminent IDF withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones
August 31 dips to 7%1%
A US official stated that Israeli troops would begin withdrawing from the first of two pilot zones in southern Lebanon within days, signaling progress on the partial withdrawal agreement but no indication of full withdrawal, leading to further price declines.
Israeli opposition signals foreign policy change but not withdrawal from Lebanon
July 31 plunges to 1%22%
Israeli opposition parties indicated a change in foreign policy style but did not commit to withdrawing ground forces from Lebanon. This maintained market skepticism about a full withdrawal by July 31, contributing to further price declines.
US official announces imminent Israeli withdrawal from first pilot zone in Lebanon
July 31 dips to 1%1%
A US official announced that Israeli troops would begin withdrawing from the first of two pilot zones in southern Lebanon within days, under US supervision. However, no timeline was given for a full withdrawal, and the second pilot zone's withdrawal remained unclear, maintaining market uncertainty.
US official says IDF withdrawal from first Lebanon pilot zone imminent
July 31 dips to 1%1%
A US official indicated that Israeli Defense Forces would begin withdrawing from the first of two pilot zones in southern Lebanon in the coming days, signaling progress on partial withdrawal but not full withdrawal, keeping market prices low.
Netanyahu visits Israeli troops in southern Lebanon, vows to remain until Hezbollah disarmed
July 31 plunges to 1%15%
Prime Minister Netanyahu visited Israeli forces in southern Lebanon and declared that Israel would not withdraw as long as Hezbollah remains a threat, reinforcing the market's view that a full withdrawal is unlikely soon.
Israeli Defence Minister Katz confirms indefinite troop presence in Lebanon
July 31 dips to 1%1%
Israel's Defence Minister reiterated that Israeli forces would remain indefinitely in Lebanon's security zones, reinforcing the market's low confidence in withdrawal by July 31 and beyond.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz vows indefinite military presence in Lebanon
December 31 dips to 21%1%
Israel Katz declared that Israeli forces would remain indefinitely in self-declared security zones in Lebanon, signaling no immediate withdrawal and undermining market expectations for near-term exit.
Katz says Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon even if the US presses it
July 31 dips to 1%1%
Katz, speaking at a conference, again dismissed any US pressure to withdraw, reinforcing market belief that even the earliest July deadline was unattainable, cementing the 1 % price for July‑31 by July 4.
US official says Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones imminent
July 31 drops to 8%6%
A US official announced that Israeli forces would begin withdrawing from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon in the coming days, with the Lebanese army deploying to the vacated areas. This raised hopes for progress but was conditional and partial, limiting market gains.
US official announces imminent Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones
August 31 dips to 7%1%
A US official indicated that Israeli troops would begin withdrawing from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon within days, signaling partial implementation of the framework agreement. However, no timeline was given for full withdrawal, limiting market optimism.
Netanyahu reaffirms Israeli military presence in southern Lebanon until Hezbollah threat eliminated
December 31 drops to 18%7%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visited troops in southern Lebanon and declared that Israeli forces would not leave the area as long as Hezbollah remains a threat. This reinforced the conditional nature of any withdrawal and further reduced market confidence in a full withdrawal by the end of 2026.
US official announces imminent Israeli withdrawal from pilot zones in Lebanon
July 31 drops to 5%6%
A US official stated that Israeli troops would begin withdrawing from the first of two pilot zones in southern Lebanon within days, as part of the framework agreement. This raised market hopes for progress but did not indicate a full withdrawal, leading to modest price movements.
Israel conducts 41 strikes in Lebanon, killing 23
Israel launched a major air‑strike campaign (41 strikes, 23 killed) in southern Lebanon, signaling escalation and further diminishing market expectations for a near‑term withdrawal.
Israeli Defense Minister states forces will remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon security zones
July 31 drops to 2%14%
Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly rejected pressure to withdraw, stating Israeli forces will stay indefinitely in southern Lebanon's security zones, citing ongoing Hezbollah threats. This statement reinforced market expectations of no full withdrawal by the analyzed dates, reflected in low market prices.
Israeli military triggers huge explosion in southern Lebanon
The Israeli military triggered a massive explosion in southern Lebanon, escalating tensions and indicating ongoing military presence. This action further reduced market confidence in a timely Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon.
Partial IDF withdrawal begins under trilateral framework amid Hezbollah protests
July 31 dips to 1%2%
The phased withdrawal of Israeli forces from designated pilot zones in southern Lebanon commenced as per the trilateral agreement, but the majority of Israeli forces remained, and Hezbollah protested the deal, maintaining tensions and uncertainty about full withdrawal timelines.
Iran urges US to set timetable for Israel's unconditional withdrawal from Lebanon
August 31 dips to 8%1%
Iran called on the US to establish a clear schedule for Israel's unconditional withdrawal from Lebanese territories, emphasizing that ending occupation is essential for regional stability, increasing geopolitical pressure but not altering Israel's stance.
Israel destroys Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire framework
December 31 drops to 25%9%
Israel conducted a major military strike destroying a Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon, signaling ongoing hostilities despite the recent ceasefire framework. This action underscored the fragility of the agreement and reduced market confidence in a full withdrawal by the dates.
Israel triggers huge explosion destroying Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon
August 31 drops to 16%13%
Despite the US-mediated ceasefire framework, Israel conducted a massive explosion destroying a Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon, signaling ongoing hostilities and undermining confidence in a swift Israeli withdrawal.
Israel conducts drone strike in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire framework
Israel carried out a drone strike targeting a threat in southern Lebanon, demonstrating ongoing military operations despite the framework agreement, which undermined confidence in a full withdrawal and contributed to market price declines.
Lebanese President urges U.S. to ensure Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon
December 31 dips to 25%1%
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun called on the United States to press Israel to comply with the framework agreement and withdraw from occupied territories to allow Lebanese Armed Forces deployment. This highlighted ongoing concerns about Israel's commitment and contributed to market doubts about timely withdrawal.
Israel conducts drone strike in southern Lebanon after framework agreement
December 31 dips to 21%1%
Despite the framework agreement, Israel carried out a drone strike targeting a threat to its forces in southern Lebanon, signaling ongoing military operations and limiting confidence in a full withdrawal by early dates.
Israeli military continues strikes in Lebanon despite withdrawal agreement
Following the framework agreement, Israeli forces continued military operations in southern Lebanon, including airstrikes, signaling that a full withdrawal was not imminent and maintaining pressure on Hezbollah. This ongoing conflict contributed to the market's low confidence in a complete withdrawal by the near-term dates.
Israel strikes southern Lebanon testing days-old peace deal
Israel conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon shortly after the framework agreement, signaling ongoing military presence and conflict despite the deal, which undermined confidence in a full withdrawal by the end of the year.
UNIFIL notes brief pause in Israeli artillery, troops stay in place
UNIFIL reported a temporary pause in Israeli artillery fire, but Israeli forces remained on the ground, leading to a marginal price dip as traders briefly hoped for de‑escalation.
Lebanon's parliament speaker says Israel-Lebanon deal 'will not pass'
Lebanese political opposition to the framework agreement grew, with the parliament speaker publicly rejecting the deal. This political resistance signaled challenges to the agreement's implementation and diminished prospects for Israeli withdrawal, contributing to market declines.
Lebanese officials and public express skepticism and criticism of partial withdrawal deal
December 31 dips to 22%1%
Following the framework agreement, Lebanese leaders described it as a first step toward restoring sovereignty but critics and protesters, including Hezbollah supporters, criticized the deal for not forcing a full Israeli withdrawal. This ongoing skepticism contributed to further market declines in the probability of full withdrawal by the earlier dates.
Israel conditions further withdrawals on Hezbollah disarmament, IDF demolishes Hezbollah tunnel
December 31 dips to 18%4%
Israeli officials emphasized that future withdrawals depend on verifiable disarmament of Hezbollah. The IDF demolished a major Hezbollah tunnel in southern Lebanon, signaling ongoing military operations and security concerns that limit withdrawal prospects.
Lebanese government commits to implementing framework agreement, calls for full Israeli withdrawal
December 31 dips to 22%2%
Following the June 26 agreement, Lebanese officials including Prime Minister Nawaf Salam and President Joseph Aoun expressed commitment to the agreement as a first step toward restoring sovereignty and called on the US to ensure Israel fulfills its withdrawal commitments. Hezbollah rejected the deal, maintaining demands for unconditional Israeli withdrawal, sustaining tensions and uncertainty about full withdrawal.
Hezbollah rejects disarmament-linked Israeli withdrawal framework agreement
Hezbollah rejected the US-brokered framework agreement linking Israeli withdrawal to Hezbollah disarmament, calling it a humiliation and dangerous, leading to protests and continued tensions, which kept market prices for withdrawal very low.
Iran-linked outlet demands full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
December 31 dips to 21%4%
Iranian media linked ceasefire talks to demands for full Israeli withdrawal, reinforcing regional tensions and reducing market optimism about withdrawal prospects.
Netanyahu confirms IDF will remain in southern Lebanon areas
July 31 plunges to 8%15%
Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would stay in southern Lebanon 'for as long as necessary' to protect northern Israel from Hezbollah, signaling no immediate full withdrawal and reinforcing market skepticism.
Agreement conditions Israeli withdrawal on Hezbollah disarmament
September 30 plunges to 22%21%
The signed framework stipulated that Israeli forces would only withdraw from areas where the Lebanese army had disarmed Hezbollah, making full withdrawal contingent on a difficult condition. This increased market doubts about a complete withdrawal by the deadlines.
Hezbollah rejects disarmament-linked withdrawal framework
September 30 plunges to 13%30%
Hezbollah publicly rejected the framework agreement linking Israeli withdrawal to Hezbollah's disarmament, calling it a humiliation. This rejection maintained the status quo of Israeli military presence, further reducing market confidence in full withdrawal by the specified dates.
Israeli drone strike hits target in southern Lebanon after framework signing
July 31 dips to 9%1%
Despite the framework, Israeli forces conducted a drone strike the same day, signalling that a full withdrawal was not imminent and keeping market sentiment firmly “No”.
Hezbollah and Lebanese public criticize framework agreement with Israel
Following the signing of the framework agreement, Hezbollah rejected the deal and protests erupted in Lebanon, reflecting internal opposition and uncertainty about the implementation of Israeli withdrawal, which kept market confidence low.
Israeli officials clarify withdrawal only after Hezbollah disarmament in pilot zones
August 31 plunges to 14%15%
The agreement text revealed Israeli forces would withdraw only from areas where the Lebanese military has disarmed Hezbollah, creating a conditional and phased withdrawal process that dampened market optimism for early full withdrawal.
Israeli officials clarify withdrawal limited to two pilot zones, maintaining broader security presence
December 31 drops to 27%5%
Israeli officials emphasized the withdrawal was symbolic and limited, with security concerns and Hezbollah disarmament as preconditions for further pullback. This reinforced market skepticism about full withdrawal by year-end.
Hezbollah and Lebanese political actors condemn Israel-Lebanon framework agreement
December 31 drops to 22%6%
Hezbollah and many Lebanese political groups rejected the framework agreement, calling it humiliating and a surrender of sovereignty, increasing political tensions and uncertainty about the withdrawal's implementation, negatively impacting market confidence.
Israeli forces to withdraw from Lebanon pilot zones in coming days, US official says
August 31 plunges to 14%15%
A US official indicated that Israeli troops would begin withdrawing from the first of two pilot zones in southern Lebanon soon, though no exact timeline was given. This tentative progress led to modest market adjustments.
Hezbollah rejects US-brokered Israel-Lebanon framework agreement
July 31 plunges to 1%15%
Hezbollah condemned the framework agreement as humiliating and a surrender of sovereignty, rejecting the deal and undermining prospects for a full Israeli withdrawal. This rejection contributed to further market price declines.
Netanyahu presents areas for IDF withdrawal as part of US-mediated agreement
December 31 drops to 24%10%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly pointed to areas where the IDF would withdraw as part of the US-mediated framework agreement, signaling the start of a phased, conditions-based withdrawal process rather than an immediate full withdrawal.
Hezbollah rejects Israel-Lebanon withdrawal framework, protests erupt in Lebanon
December 31 drops to 22%12%
Hezbollah rejected the US-brokered framework linking Israeli withdrawal to its disarmament, leading to protests in Lebanon and casting doubt on the deal's effectiveness in prompting Israeli withdrawal, contributing to market pessimism.
Netanyahu emphasizes Israeli forces will remain in southern Lebanon as long as necessary
December 31 drops to 23%8%
Following the framework agreement, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon 'for as long as necessary' to protect northern Israeli communities until the Hezbollah threat is eliminated. This statement reinforced market skepticism about a full withdrawal by the earlier dates.
Hezbollah rejects Israel-Lebanon framework agreement, calls it a capitulation
December 31 drops to 28%8%
Hezbollah publicly rejected the framework agreement, criticizing it as a surrender of Lebanese sovereignty and opposing the disarmament condition. This rejection raised doubts about the agreement's implementation and the likelihood of Israeli withdrawal.
Israeli forces conduct drone strike in southern Lebanon despite withdrawal agreement
August 31 drops to 16%13%
Following the framework agreement, Israeli forces carried out a drone strike targeting a perceived threat, signaling ongoing military operations and undermining confidence in a full withdrawal. This action contributed to further market declines in withdrawal probabilities.
Netanyahu emphasizes conditional withdrawal tied to Hezbollah disarmament
December 31 drops to 25%6%
Following the agreement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that Israel would maintain a security zone in southern Lebanon and only withdraw fully after Hezbollah is disarmed. This stance indicated that a full withdrawal was unlikely in the near term, further reducing market confidence in a complete withdrawal by the specified dates.
Netanyahu presents map of partial IDF withdrawal areas in Lebanon
December 31 drops to 28%10%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly pointed out the limited areas from which Israeli forces would withdraw, emphasizing that the IDF would remain in other parts of southern Lebanon, reinforcing the partial nature of the withdrawal.
Hezbollah rejects US-brokered Israel-Lebanon withdrawal agreement
December 31 dips to 25%2%
Hezbollah condemned the framework agreement as a surrender and nullified it, opposing the condition linking Israeli withdrawal to Hezbollah's disarmament. This rejection undermined prospects for a full withdrawal and contributed to market price declines.
Netanyahu confirms partial withdrawal from Lebanon pilot zones
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly confirmed the partial withdrawal from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon as part of the US-mediated agreement, emphasizing that Israeli forces would remain in much of southern Lebanon. This reinforced market skepticism about a full withdrawal by the near-term dates.
Netanyahu confirms IDF withdrawal from two areas in Lebanon but maintains security zone
December 31 drops to 24%5%
Prime Minister Netanyahu described the agreement as a major win but emphasized that Israeli forces would remain in much of southern Lebanon as long as Hezbollah remains armed, limiting the scope of withdrawal and dampening market optimism for full withdrawal.
Netanyahu affirms Israeli forces will remain until Hezbollah disarms
December 31 drops to 24%5%
Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon security zones "for as long as necessary" until Hezbollah is disarmed, signaling no immediate full withdrawal. This statement reinforced market skepticism about a swift exit, contributing to price declines.
Lebanese government leaders call framework agreement a first step toward restoring sovereignty amid protests
December 31 dips to 21%2%
Lebanese Prime Minister and President publicly endorsed the framework agreement as a step toward Israeli withdrawal and Lebanese sovereignty, but the deal faced criticism and protests, especially from Hezbollah supporters, reflecting ongoing tensions and uncertainty about full Israeli withdrawal.
Israeli Defense Minister orders forces to prepare for extended stay in southern Lebanon
December 31 drops to 22%6%
Following the framework agreement, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz ordered Israeli forces to prepare for an extended stay in the security zone up to 10 km inside Lebanese territory, reinforcing the message that a full withdrawal was not imminent and depressing market prices for withdrawal by all dates.
Netanyahu details areas of IDF withdrawal in southern Lebanon
December 31 drops to 22%6%
Prime Minister Netanyahu publicly pointed out the specific areas from which the IDF would withdraw as part of the US-mediated agreement, reinforcing that the withdrawal was partial and contingent on Hezbollah disarmament, which tempered market optimism for a full withdrawal.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu confirms IDF withdrawal from two pilot zones in Lebanon
August 31 plunges to 14%15%
Netanyahu stated Israeli forces would leave areas they do not need in Lebanon as part of the agreement, but maintained that IDF would remain in other occupied areas, indicating a partial and conditional withdrawal.
US official announces imminent IDF withdrawal from first pilot zone in southern Lebanon
July 31 drops to 13%10%
A US official indicated that Israeli troops would begin withdrawing from the first pilot zone in the coming days, but no exact timeline was given, reflecting the gradual and uncertain nature of the withdrawal process.
Netanyahu confirms Israeli forces to remain in security zone despite partial withdrawal deal
December 31 dips to 21%4%
Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli forces will remain in the southern Lebanon security zone as long as Hezbollah remains armed, underscoring that the withdrawal is limited and conditional. This reinforced market skepticism about a full withdrawal by the near-term dates.
Israel strikes southern Lebanon as Hezbollah condemns new deal
Following the signing of the framework agreement, Israel conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon, killing at least one person. Hezbollah condemned the new deal, indicating ongoing conflict and reducing confidence in a full Israeli withdrawal, which pressured market prices downward.
Israel and Lebanon sign U.S.-brokered framework agreement for partial withdrawal
December 31 plunges to 26%23%
After four days of talks in Washington, Israel agreed to withdraw from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon, transferring control to the Lebanese Armed Forces. The agreement was hailed as a first step toward restoring Lebanese sovereignty but was conditional and limited, leading to mixed market reactions with some initial price recovery.
Israel and Lebanon sign framework for partial IDF withdrawal from two zones
July 31 plunges to 23%16%
A trilateral framework was signed in Washington, announcing a *partial* IDF pull‑back from two pilot zones. The news produced a brief rally (price rose to 72 % on June 23) but the limited scope quickly dampened optimism, sending the price back down to the low‑teens by June 30.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu calls partial withdrawal a major win, insists forces remain in much territory
September 30 plunges to 22%21%
Netanyahu described the agreement as a major win for Israel, emphasizing that Israeli forces would remain in much of southern Lebanon and that withdrawal was conditional on Hezbollah disarmament, dampening expectations for full withdrawal soon.
Israel, Lebanon sign U.S.-mediated framework agreement
December 31 dips to 25%3%
A trilateral framework agreement was signed aiming to wedge Lebanon away from Iran and set conditions for withdrawal, but doubts about implementation and Hezbollah opposition kept market confidence low.
Israel, Lebanon, and US sign framework agreement for partial IDF withdrawal from Lebanon
July 31 drops to 2%5%
A trilateral agreement was signed in Washington, D.C., outlining a phased, conditional partial withdrawal of Israeli forces from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon, with Lebanese Armed Forces assuming control. The deal did not commit to a full withdrawal, leading to a drop in market prices for earlier withdrawal dates.
Israel and Lebanon sign framework agreement for partial withdrawal
December 31 plunges to 24%25%
Israel and Lebanon signed a US-brokered framework agreement for Israel to withdraw from two areas in southern Lebanon, transferring control to the Lebanese military. This partial withdrawal was seen as a first step but not a full withdrawal, causing market prices for full withdrawal by year-end to drop significantly.
Israel agrees to test military withdrawal from small fraction of southern Lebanon
September 30 plunges to 22%21%
The US-brokered agreement included Israel testing a military withdrawal from limited territory in southern Lebanon, home to Hezbollah, but the deal tied withdrawal to Hezbollah disarmament, limiting expectations for a full withdrawal soon.
Israel and Lebanon sign US-brokered framework agreement for partial IDF withdrawal
On June 26, Israel and Lebanon signed a US-mediated framework agreement for Israel to withdraw from two pilot zones in southern Lebanon, transferring control to the Lebanese Armed Forces. This partial withdrawal was seen as a limited step, not a full withdrawal, causing market prices for all withdrawal dates to drop significantly.
Israel and Lebanon sign US-brokered framework agreement for partial withdrawal
December 31 plunges to 34%15%
Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement in Washington, DC, under US mediation, where Israel agreed to withdraw from two areas in southern Lebanon and transfer control to the Lebanese military. This partial withdrawal was seen as a first step but not a full withdrawal, causing initial market optimism but limited by the conditional nature of the deal.
Israel and Lebanon Sign Framework Agreement for Limited Withdrawal from Southern Lebanon
August 31 drops to 16%13%
Israel agreed to withdraw from two specific locations in Lebanon, one north and one south of the Litani River, marking a partial and limited withdrawal but not a full exit. This agreement was seen as a small step but insufficient for full withdrawal expectations.
Israel to withdraw from two areas in Lebanon under new U.S.‑brokered agreement
Israel announced a limited withdrawal from two areas of southern Lebanon as part of a U.S.‑brokered framework agreement, but the deal left most of the occupied zone in place, reinforcing market pessimism about a full pull‑out by any of the listed dates.
Israeli Defense Minister states no withdrawal without Hezbollah disarmament
December 31 drops to 22%5%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that Israel would not redeploy or withdraw from southern Lebanon unless Hezbollah was disarmed and the safety of northern Israeli residents was guaranteed. This firm stance reduced market confidence in a near-term full withdrawal.
Hezbollah chief Qassem calls for unconditional Israeli withdrawal
Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem demanded unconditional Israeli withdrawal, emphasizing that any partial pull‑back was unacceptable. The hard‑line stance further reduced market optimism.
Israel and Lebanon reach framework agreement for partial IDF withdrawal
On June 26, Israel and Lebanon reached a US-brokered framework agreement for the Israeli Defense Forces to begin partial withdrawal from two areas inside the buffer zone in southern Lebanon, to be replaced by Lebanese forces. This partial withdrawal did not indicate a full withdrawal by the earlier market dates, keeping probabilities low.
Israel and Lebanon sign US-brokered framework agreement for partial withdrawal
July 31 plunges to 1%15%
After four days of talks in Washington, Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement for Israel to withdraw from two areas in southern Lebanon, transferring control to the Lebanese military. This partial withdrawal was seen as insufficient for full withdrawal, causing mixed market reactions with some temporary price increases but overall decline.
Israel and Lebanon sign framework agreement after US-brokered talks
A framework agreement was signed between Israel and Lebanon, brokered by the US, aiming to address border issues but not including a commitment for Israel to withdraw all ground forces from Lebanon. This led to market uncertainty as the agreement did not guarantee a full withdrawal, causing prices to drop.
US Secretary of State announces Israel-Lebanon partial withdrawal deal
September 30 plunges to 24%19%
Marco Rubio announced the framework agreement after five rounds of talks, highlighting a performance-based trilateral framework excluding Iran and Hezbollah. The deal included Israeli withdrawal from two pilot zones but no fixed timetable, causing market prices to fall further.
Israel-Lebanon framework deal includes ceasefire and partial withdrawal but Hezbollah rejects terms
August 31 drops to 16%13%
The US-mediated agreement included a ceasefire and partial withdrawal, but Hezbollah's rejection and insistence on full Israeli withdrawal tempered expectations for a complete pullout, contributing to market declines.
US Secretary of State Rubio announces Israel-Lebanon partial withdrawal deal
September 30 plunges to 22%21%
Marco Rubio announced the framework agreement as a step toward restoring Lebanese sovereignty and security, highlighting the withdrawal from two pilot zones but noting Hezbollah's rejection of the deal. This reinforced market reassessment of withdrawal likelihood.
Hezbollah rejects U.S.-brokered Israel-Lebanon framework agreement
September 30 plunges to 8%35%
Hezbollah condemned the framework agreement as a surrender of Lebanese sovereignty and declared it null and void, undermining prospects for a swift Israeli withdrawal and contributing to market skepticism about near-term resolution.
US Secretary of State announces framework deal for lasting peace including Israeli withdrawal
December 31 plunges to 22%27%
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced a framework deal between Israel and Lebanon for lasting peace involving Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon and Lebanese army deployment. Despite the announcement, Israeli officials emphasized continued military presence, limiting market confidence in full withdrawal by the dates analyzed.
US says Israel pulled back from part of buffer zone; Israel denies
A U.S. State Department official claimed Israel had “pulled back from a part of its buffer zone,” but Israeli officials immediately denied any withdrawal. The mixed messages caused a modest further decline in Yes prices.
Israeli Defence Minister Katz confirms no withdrawal from southern Lebanon despite US pressure
July 31 drops to 11%5%
Katz stated Israeli troops would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the US demanded it, reinforcing the stance against full withdrawal and contributing to further market price declines.
Israeli Defence Minister Katz confirms no withdrawal from southern Lebanon despite US pressure
December 31 dips to 21%2%
Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the United States demanded it, reinforcing Netanyahu's position and further lowering market confidence in a full withdrawal by the end of 2026.
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz denies any withdrawal from southern Lebanon
December 31 plunges to 24%48%
Israel Katz publicly stated that Israeli troops would not withdraw from southern Lebanon and that there was no US demand for such a withdrawal, contradicting earlier US claims and dampening market optimism about near-term Israeli withdrawal.
Israeli Defence Minister says troops will not withdraw from southern Lebanon
December 31 plunges to 24%25%
Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the US demanded it, reinforcing the stance against full withdrawal and contributing to market price declines for withdrawal by earlier dates.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz says troops will not withdraw from southern Lebanon
July 31 dips to 13%1%
Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the US demanded it, reinforcing the stance of maintaining military presence and undermining expectations of a full withdrawal.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz reiterates refusal to withdraw from southern Lebanon
Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the United States demanded it, emphasizing security concerns and rejecting international pressure. This hardened stance reinforced market expectations that a full withdrawal by mid-2026 was unlikely.
Israeli Defence Minister Katz states troops will not withdraw despite US demands
June 30 dips to 5%2%
On June 24, 2026, Israel Katz publicly affirmed that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if pressured by the US, further dampening market expectations for withdrawal by the end of June and beyond.
Israel and Lebanon discuss U.S.-backed troop withdrawal proposal
December 31 plunges to 27%22%
Israeli and Lebanese officials discussed a U.S.-backed plan for partial Israeli troop withdrawal and Lebanese army control, briefly raising market hopes for withdrawal by later dates.
Israeli Defence Minister Declares No Withdrawal from Southern Lebanon
July 31 drops to 18%5%
Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz publicly stated that Israeli troops would not withdraw from southern Lebanon, emphasizing that there was no American demand for such a withdrawal. This statement undermined expectations of a near-term withdrawal and contributed to a drop in market prices for earlier withdrawal dates.
Israeli defense minister states troops will not withdraw from southern Lebanon
July 31 dips to 2%2%
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon for as long as necessary, rejecting US pressure to withdraw and undermining peace talks. This hardened stance contributed to market skepticism about withdrawal by near-term dates.
Israeli Defence Minister says IDF will not withdraw from southern Lebanon
July 31 dips to 3%3%
Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz publicly stated that Israeli troops would not withdraw from southern Lebanon, even if the US demanded it, reinforcing the stance that no full withdrawal was imminent and contributing to market price declines.
Israel’s defence minister says IDF will not withdraw from Lebanon even under U.S. pressure
Katz publicly declared that Israel will maintain its security zone in Lebanon “even if there is an American demand”, signaling no near‑term withdrawal.
Israeli Defence Minister Katz states no withdrawal from southern Lebanon despite US demands
Israel Katz publicly stated that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if the US demanded it, reinforcing the position of continued occupation and reducing market confidence in withdrawal by near-term dates.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz states Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon even under US pressure
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly stated that Israel will maintain its military presence in Lebanon and will not withdraw, even if pressured by the United States, reinforcing the market's low probability of withdrawal by the dates in question.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz states Israel will not withdraw from southern Lebanon even if US demands it
August 31 drops to 4%5%
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly affirmed that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon regardless of U.S. pressure, further diminishing expectations of a near-term full withdrawal and contributing to market price declines.
Israel’s defence minister says Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon even if the US demands it
July 31 plunges to 7%16%
Katz reiterated Israel’s refusal to withdraw even if the United States demanded it, further eroding confidence that any deadline could be met and pushing the July‑31 odds down to a single digit (7 %).
Israeli Defense Minister Katz states Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon even if US demands it
December 31 plunges to 32%17%
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly declared that Israel would maintain its military presence in Lebanon despite US pressure, signaling a firm stance against full withdrawal. This statement likely contributed to early market declines in withdrawal probabilities.
Israel's Defence Minister Katz states Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon even if US demands it
July 31 drops to 18%5%
Defence Minister Israel Katz publicly reinforced Israel's refusal to withdraw from Lebanon despite US pressure, emphasizing operational priorities and security concerns. This statement further reduced market expectations for a full withdrawal by the end of July.
Israeli Defense Minister says troops will not withdraw from southern Lebanon
July 31 drops to 17%6%
Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly stated that Israeli troops would remain in southern Lebanon and that there was no American demand for withdrawal, signaling a firm stance against a full pullout and impacting market expectations negatively for withdrawal by July 31.
Israeli Defence Minister Katz states Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon despite US pressure
December 31 plunges to 38%34%
Defence Minister Israel Katz publicly declared that Israel intends to maintain its military presence in Lebanon and will not withdraw even if pressured by the US, signaling a firm stance against full withdrawal and influencing market skepticism about early withdrawal.
Lebanon and Israel sign US-brokered framework agreement for partial withdrawal
December 31 plunges to 22%27%
Israel, Lebanon, and the US signed a framework agreement calling for Israeli withdrawal from two pilot areas in southern Lebanon with Lebanese army deployment. However, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated forces would remain in the security zone as long as Hezbollah is active, limiting withdrawal scope and market optimism.
Hezbollah leader demands full Israeli withdrawal from all Lebanese territory
July 31 drops to 2%14%
Hezbollah's deputy leader Naim Qassem publicly demanded Israel's full withdrawal from all Lebanese territory, rejecting partial withdrawal frameworks and maintaining a hardline stance. This hardened position contributed to market skepticism about near-term Israeli withdrawal.
Hezbollah chief demands Israel fully withdraw from all Lebanese territory
Hezbollah chief Naim Qassem demanded a full Israeli withdrawal, highlighting the gap between political demands and on‑the‑ground realities, which kept market odds low for any withdrawal date.
US State Department official claims Israel has withdrawn from part of southern Lebanon
December 31 plunges to 24%25%
A US official announced that Israel had withdrawn from some southern Lebanese territory, signaling a potential start to Israeli pullback. However, Israeli and Lebanese authorities denied this claim, creating uncertainty about the extent and reality of any withdrawal.
US official confirms Israel has withdrawn from part of southern Lebanon buffer zone
December 31 drops to 37%12%
A US State Department official stated that Israel had pulled back from some of the southern Lebanese territory it occupied, marking a concrete step toward withdrawal and signaling good faith toward Lebanon's government. This partial withdrawal raised market hopes for further Israeli troop reductions.
US official confirms partial Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon buffer zone
July 31 dips to 2%2%
A US State Department official announced that Israel had withdrawn from some parts of its buffer zone in southern Lebanon, with the Lebanese Armed Forces expected to take over. This partial withdrawal was seen as a goodwill gesture but fell short of full withdrawal, limiting market optimism.
Israeli Foreign Minister Saar confirms no withdrawal from Lebanon's security zone
July 31 dips to 3%3%
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar stated Israel will not withdraw from the security zone in southern Lebanon, citing security concerns and the threat from Hezbollah. This official stance further diminished market confidence in withdrawal by July or August 2026.
Israeli Chief of Staff Rules Out Disarmament, Impacting Lebanon Withdrawal Odds
September 30 plunges to 22%21%
The Israeli Chief of Staff stated there is no disarmament goal or ceasefire on the northern front, emphasizing ongoing military operations against Hezbollah. This hardened Israel's stance and decreased the likelihood of withdrawal by June 30, 2026, reflected in market price drops.
US official claims Israel has withdrawn from part of southern Lebanon buffer zone
A US State Department official stated that Israel had withdrawn from some southern Lebanese territory, with the Lebanese army expected to take over. However, Lebanese officials denied knowledge of any withdrawal, reflecting the ambiguous and limited nature of the pullback, which did not satisfy market expectations for full withdrawal.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz confirms no withdrawal from southern Lebanon
July 31 dips to 13%2%
Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that the Israeli army will not withdraw from territory occupied in southern Lebanon, reinforcing the position that no withdrawal announcement would occur soon, maintaining low market probabilities for withdrawal.
Egypt urges complete Israeli pull‑back from Lebanon
Egypt called for a full Israeli withdrawal, adding regional diplomatic pressure but not changing Israeli policy, which contributed to a continued downward trend in Yes prices.
Israel refuses to withdraw from Lebanon despite US-Iran ceasefire deal
July 31 dips to 13%2%
Despite the US-Iran ceasefire agreement covering Lebanon, Israel stated it would not withdraw its forces from Lebanon, maintaining military presence and operations. This stance confirmed market skepticism about a withdrawal by the end of July.
Israel and Hezbollah renew ceasefire amid ongoing hostilities
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to renew a ceasefire after fighting threatened US-Iran negotiations, but Israeli forces continued operations in southern Lebanon. This fragile ceasefire maintained uncertainty about a full Israeli withdrawal, keeping market prices low for near-term withdrawal outcomes.
Israel and Hezbollah agree to ceasefire amid US-Iran talks
December 31 surges to 72%23%
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire on June 19, 2026, following escalations in Lebanon. While this reduced immediate hostilities, Israel maintained its military presence in southern Lebanon, and ongoing strikes continued, limiting expectations for full withdrawal by near-term dates.
U.S. official says Israel‑Hezbollah truce reached amid ongoing clashes
An American official reported that Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to a new truce mediated by the U.S., Qatar and Iran, but fighting continued on the ground, keeping withdrawal prospects low.
Israel and Hezbollah renew cease‑fire after intense clashes
July 31 dips to 10%2%
A cease‑fire renewal was announced after heavy fighting, but both sides kept launching attacks. The fragile truce failed to improve market odds, which stayed low (≈ 10 %).
Israel and Hezbollah agree to halt fighting amid US-Iran talks
Israel and Hezbollah agreed to halt heavy fighting in southern Lebanon, which temporarily eased tensions but did not lead to Israeli withdrawal, maintaining low market prices for withdrawal by July 31.
Chief of Staff Zamir says no cease‑fire or disarmament on northern front
Chief of Staff Lt‑Gen Eyal Zamir announced that there is no cease‑fire or disarmament goal on the northern front, signalling continued Israeli military presence and pushing the market lower.
Israel announces troops will remain in southern Lebanon, contradicting US-Iran deal
July 31 dips to 12%4%
The Israeli Defense Forces declared they will continue occupying southern Lebanon, directly contradicting the US-Iran agreement and dashing hopes for withdrawal by July 31, causing market prices for withdrawal to fall further.
PM Netanyahu says Israeli forces will remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon
July 31 dips to 23%1%
Netanyahu reaffirmed Katz’s line, stating IDF troops will stay indefinitely in the occupied zone. The twin statements reinforced market expectations of a “No” outcome for all dates, contributing to the slide to 23 % by June 24.
Israeli ambassador to US states Israel will not withdraw from southern Lebanon
September 30 plunges to 11%32%
Israel's ambassador to the US publicly declared that Israel has no plans to withdraw from southern Lebanon, reinforcing the government's position to maintain a security buffer zone. This statement further dampened market expectations for withdrawal by July 31 and beyond.
Israeli ambassador to US confirms no withdrawal from southern Lebanon
Israel's ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, confirmed Israel does not plan to withdraw from southern Lebanon, reinforcing the official stance against withdrawal despite the US-Iran peace deal, further lowering market expectations for withdrawal by July 31.
Iran says Israeli pull‑back from Lebanon is prerequisite for US‑Iran deal
Iran linked any U.S.–Iran cease‑fire agreement to a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, increasing geopolitical pressure but not altering Israel’s stance, nudging the market lower.
Defense Minister Katz rules out any Israeli pull‑back from Lebanon
Defense Minister Yisrael Katz reiterated the government's position that Israeli forces will not withdraw from the so‑called security zone, reinforcing the June 15 statement and further depressing the market.
Iran states Israel must withdraw from Lebanon to end war under US-Iran deal
July 31 drops to 14%5%
Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the tentative US-Iran deal to end the war requires Israel to withdraw from Lebanon, a condition Israel has rejected. This diplomatic impasse indicated no imminent Israeli withdrawal, reinforcing market pessimism about withdrawal by July 31.
Israeli ambassador to U.S. confirms no plans to withdraw from southern Lebanon
On June 16, Israel's ambassador to the U.S., Yechiel Leiter, reiterated Israel's position of not withdrawing from southern Lebanon, confirming the government's stance and solidifying market expectations against withdrawal by July 31.
Israeli defence minister says Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon under any circumstances
July 31 plunges to 24%25%
Defense Minister Israel Katz told U.S. officials that Israel will not withdraw from Lebanon under any circumstances, emphasizing a policy of maintaining a security buffer. The unequivocal refusal pushed market odds sharply lower for any July‑31 withdrawal, dropping the Yes price from 49 % to 24 % the next day.
Netanyahu vows Israel will not withdraw from occupied Lebanese territory
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli forces would remain in Lebanon, rejecting any immediate withdrawal despite ceasefire agreements involving the US and Iran. This stance set a firm baseline against expectations of a full withdrawal, influencing market skepticism.
Israeli leadership reaffirms no withdrawal from occupied Lebanese territory
July 31 dips to 13%1%
Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz publicly declared Israel would maintain its military presence in southern Lebanon indefinitely, opposing any withdrawal despite international pressure and ceasefire agreements, solidifying market pessimism about full withdrawal.
Netanyahu and Katz rule out withdrawal from Lebanon despite US-Iran deal
Israeli leadership explicitly rejected any withdrawal from southern Lebanon, stating that ground forces will remain in the security zones indefinitely.
Netanyahu vows Israeli forces will remain in Lebanon 'as long as necessary'
July 31 dips to 9%4%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon, emphasizing continued occupation for security reasons. This hardened stance significantly reduced market confidence in a full withdrawal by July 31.
Netanyahu rules out immediate withdrawal from Lebanon, vows to maintain forces
December 31 plunges to 49%23%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared victory over Iran and stated that Israeli forces would remain in Lebanon "for as long as necessary," signaling no immediate withdrawal. This hardened stance likely decreased market confidence in a near-term full withdrawal.
Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz affirm no Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon despite US-Iran deal
July 31 dips to 13%1%
Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz publicly declared opposition to withdrawing Israeli forces from Lebanon, emphasizing continued military presence and operations. This official stance solidified market expectations that Israel would not withdraw by July 31, reflected in the market price dropping to 13%.
Iran says US-Iran deal requires Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
July 31 dips to 12%2%
Iran's top diplomat stated that the tentative US-Iran agreement to end the war requires Israel to withdraw from Lebanon, a condition Israel rejects, increasing uncertainty and lowering market confidence in withdrawal by July 31.
Israeli Defence Minister states Israel will stay indefinitely in lands seized in Lebanon
July 31 dips to 12%2%
Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz declared that Israeli ground forces would remain indefinitely in territories held in Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, signaling no planned withdrawal and challenging ceasefire expectations. This statement further reduced market confidence in a withdrawal by July 31.
Netanyahu rules out immediate Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon "for as long as necessary," signaling no immediate plans for full withdrawal and dampening market expectations for near-term exit.
Israeli leaders declare no immediate withdrawal from southern Lebanon
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Katz publicly stated that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely to counter Hezbollah threats, rejecting any immediate withdrawal despite international pressure. This hardened stance decreased market expectations for a full withdrawal by the end of 2026.
Netanyahu declares victory over Iran and rules out withdrawal from Lebanon
December 31 plunges to 24%25%
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon "for as long as necessary," explicitly ruling out any immediate withdrawal despite ceasefire agreements. This statement reinforced market doubts about a full withdrawal by the end of the year.
Israel signals refusal to withdraw troops from southern Lebanon
July 31 drops to 18%9%
Israeli officials publicly stated they would maintain security zones in southern Lebanon, rejecting withdrawal demands and reducing market confidence in a near-term withdrawal.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz states forces will remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon
August 31 plunges to 14%15%
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly declared that Israeli troops would remain indefinitely in the security zones across Lebanon, Syria, and Gaza, rejecting withdrawal despite the US-Iran agreement to end broader hostilities. This reinforced market expectations of no near-term withdrawal.
Lebanese Culture Minister calls for Israeli withdrawal timetable for sustainable peace
September 30 dips to 39%4%
Lebanese Culture Minister Ghassan Salameh urged a clear timetable for Israeli withdrawal from occupied areas to enable a durable ceasefire, highlighting ongoing tensions and the need for concrete steps despite pilot zones. This underscored the diplomatic impasse affecting withdrawal timelines.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announces continued occupation of southern Lebanon
June 30 dips to 7%3%
On June 15, 2026, Netanyahu declared Israeli forces would remain in the Lebanon security buffer zone as long as necessary, signaling no imminent full withdrawal. This statement reinforced market skepticism about withdrawal by upcoming dates, contributing to price declines.
Netanyahu rules out immediate withdrawal from Lebanon, vows to stay as long as necessary
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that Israeli forces would remain in Lebanon for as long as necessary, citing security concerns and a victory over Iran, which dampened market expectations for withdrawal by any near-term date.
Netanyahu vows Israeli forces will remain in Lebanon 'as long as necessary'
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israeli forces would continue to occupy southern Lebanon indefinitely, rejecting any immediate withdrawal despite ceasefire agreements. This statement significantly lowered market confidence in a near-term full withdrawal.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announces continued occupation of southern Lebanon
Netanyahu declared that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon as long as necessary, signaling no immediate full withdrawal and dampening market expectations for a quick exit.
Israel's Defense Minister Katz declares no withdrawal from southern Lebanon
Defense Minister Israel Katz publicly stated that Israeli forces would remain indefinitely in southern Lebanon's security zones, rejecting any withdrawal despite the US-Iran ceasefire agreement. This firm stance reinforced market skepticism about a near-term withdrawal, causing prices for earlier withdrawal dates to drop.
Lebanese Culture Minister calls for clear timetable for Israeli withdrawal
Lebanese Culture Minister Ghassan Salameh urged for a clear calendar of Israeli withdrawal from occupied southern Lebanon to enable a durable ceasefire, highlighting ongoing tensions and the need for concrete steps. This underscored the political complexity and contributed to market doubts about imminent withdrawal.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rules out immediate withdrawal from Lebanon
June 30 dips to 6%4%
On June 15, 2026, Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli forces would remain in the Lebanon security buffer zone for as long as necessary, rejecting any immediate withdrawal despite ongoing peace talks and ceasefire agreements, reinforcing market skepticism about a full withdrawal.
Netanyahu declares victory over Iran and rules out withdrawal from Lebanon
July 31 dips to 13%1%
Prime Minister Netanyahu hailed victory over Iran and explicitly ruled out any immediate withdrawal from Lebanon, stating Israeli forces would remain as long as necessary, reinforcing market skepticism about withdrawal by July 31.
Israeli Defense Minister vows to remain in southern Lebanon despite Iran deal
July 31 jumps to 18%6%
Defense Minister Israel Katz vowed that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon and resist any pressure to withdraw, reinforcing the stance against withdrawal and contributing to low market prices for a July 31 withdrawal.
US and Iran announce ceasefire including Lebanon, but Israel to remain in Lebanon
July 31 dips to 6%3%
A US-Iran memorandum of understanding declared an immediate and permanent end to military operations on all fronts including Lebanon. However, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced Israeli forces would remain in Lebanon, dampening expectations of a full withdrawal.
Netanyahu says Israeli troops will stay in Lebanon indefinitely
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli ground forces would remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely, rejecting any pre‑condition of withdrawal. The announcement sharply reduced market confidence in a withdrawal by any of the listed dates, coinciding with the steep price drop on 23 June.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu vows to maintain occupation in southern Lebanon
July 31 dips to 4%2%
Netanyahu publicly declared that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely, rejecting withdrawal despite ceasefire agreements, which strongly influenced market expectations toward a 'No' outcome for withdrawal by July 31.
Israeli Defense Minister Katz rules out withdrawal from Lebanon despite US-Iran deal
July 31 drops to 14%5%
Israel Katz publicly declared that Israel would not withdraw from southern Lebanon despite the emerging US-Iran peace agreement, emphasizing continued military presence and readiness to respond forcefully to Iranian attacks. This statement significantly lowered market expectations for withdrawal by July 31.
Lebanese minister calls for withdrawal timetable; Israel says security zone will stay
Lebanese Culture Minister Ghassan Salameh called for a clear timetable for Israeli withdrawal, but Israeli officials reiterated that they would retain the security zone, reinforcing market pessimism.
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu rules out immediate withdrawal from Lebanon
July 31 drops to 16%7%
Netanyahu announced Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon "for as long as necessary," signaling no imminent full withdrawal and dampening market expectations for early withdrawal dates.
Israeli forces advance deeper into southern Lebanon beyond Litani River
August 31 plunges to 7%22%
Israeli ground forces expanded operations deeper into southern Lebanon, capturing strategic positions such as Beaufort Castle and advancing near Nabatieh. This military escalation reduced market confidence in a near-term withdrawal, reflected in falling prices for withdrawal by June 30 and later dates.
Israeli forces cross Litani River, intensifying ground incursion
IDF announced it had crossed the Litani River and was advancing toward Nabatieh, showing a deepening ground incursion and reducing the probability of a withdrawal by any of the forecast dates.
Lebanese army withdraws from southern village after Israeli advance
July 31 dips to 12%2%
The Lebanese army withdrew from a southern village following Israeli troop advances nearby, indicating Israel's ongoing military presence and expansion in Lebanon, reducing confidence in a withdrawal by July 31.
Report claims US-Iran deal would require complete Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
July 31 rises to 15%3%
A report emerged stating that an ostensibly finalized US-Iran deal would require Israel to completely halt its offensive and rapidly withdraw from southern Lebanon.
Former Israeli leader warns against withdrawal from Lebanon
July 31 dips to 13%1%
Ehud Barak, former Israeli Prime Minister who oversaw the 2000 withdrawal, cautioned against getting stuck again in Lebanon, reflecting internal Israeli debate. The ongoing conflict and lack of consensus on withdrawal contributed to market doubts about a near-term Israeli withdrawal announcement.
Israeli airstrike kills civilians in Beirut’s southern suburbs amid ongoing conflict
July 31 dips to 13%2%
An Israeli raid on the town of Saksakiyeh killed at least two civilians, highlighting continued hostilities despite ceasefire talks. This underscored Israel's ongoing military presence and operations in Lebanon, reducing market confidence in withdrawal by July 31.
Israeli military strikes southern Lebanon amid evacuation orders
July 31 dips to 7%4%
Despite ceasefire talks, Israeli forces conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon and issued evacuation orders for several villages, indicating ongoing conflict and reducing confidence in a full withdrawal by July 31.
Hezbollah rejects ceasefire deal as Israel vows to continue operations
July 31 dips to 14%1%
Hezbollah rejected the US-brokered ceasefire, demanding a full Israeli withdrawal first, while Israel's defense minister stated ground forces would not withdraw.
Hezbollah rejects partial withdrawal deal, demands full Israeli withdrawal
Hezbollah rejected the deal reached between Lebanon and Israel, demanding a full Israeli withdrawal and a full ceasefire. This rejection diminished prospects for a complete Israeli withdrawal, reflected in declining market prices for withdrawal by all dates.
Israel and Lebanon announce ceasefire agreement
July 31 rises to 27%4%
Israel and Lebanon announced a ceasefire, raising hopes for de-escalation and a possible withdrawal, which initially increased market optimism about withdrawal prospects.
Israel and Lebanon agree to conditional ceasefire but Israel continues operations
Israel and Lebanon agreed to a conditional ceasefire requiring Hezbollah to cease fire and withdraw operatives, with further talks planned. However, Israeli Defense Minister Katz stated Israel would continue military operations and not withdraw, dampening prospects for withdrawal by July 31.
Israel announces it will continue ground operations in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire
July 31 dips to 14%2%
Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that Israeli forces would not withdraw from southern Lebanon and would continue military operations despite the ceasefire agreement. This official stance strongly signaled no withdrawal announcement, pushing market prices lower.
Lebanese government announces pilot zones for Lebanese army control in southern Lebanon
July 31 dips to 9%4%
Lebanese officials declared plans to deploy the Lebanese Armed Forces in pilot zones in southern Lebanon as a first step toward Israeli withdrawal, but Hezbollah rejected the deal. This partial progress raised hopes but also highlighted challenges, causing moderate market price declines for near-term withdrawal outcomes.
Israeli Defense Minister says military will continue operations, no withdrawal
July 31 drops to 17%13%
Despite the ceasefire agreement, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israel would continue military operations in Lebanon and would not withdraw its forces, dampening market expectations for a full withdrawal and causing prices to fall.
Israeli Defense Minister vows to maintain military presence in southern Lebanon
July 31 dips to 13%2%
Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that Israeli forces would remain in southern Lebanon indefinitely despite pressures, signaling no imminent withdrawal. This official stance reinforced market skepticism about a withdrawal announcement by July 31, contributing to price declines.
Hezbollah rejects ceasefire deal, demands Israeli withdrawal as precondition
July 31 dips to 16%3%
Hezbollah publicly rejected the ceasefire agreement reached by Israel and Lebanon, insisting that any ceasefire must begin with the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanese territory. This rejection undermined prospects for a full Israeli withdrawal and contributed to market decline.
Israeli forces begin limited withdrawal from some southern Lebanese villages
July 31 dips to 15%2%
Reports indicated Israeli troops began withdrawing from villages such as Debbine and Marjayoun, replaced by Lebanese army units, signaling a limited Israeli pullback but not a full withdrawal, which was insufficient for market optimism.
Hezbollah rejects ceasefire deal agreed by Israel and Lebanon
July 31 dips to 14%3%
Hezbollah officially rejected a ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon, demanding a complete Israeli withdrawal. The rejection and continued fighting despite ceasefire announcements contributed to market doubts about Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon by early dates.
Hezbollah rejects ceasefire deal without Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
July 31 dips to 14%2%
Hezbollah rejected any ceasefire that did not start with Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory, while Israel launched fresh attacks, indicating ongoing conflict and no imminent withdrawal, further lowering market expectations.
Hezbollah rejects ceasefire deal agreed by Israel and Lebanon
December 31 plunges to 27%22%
Hezbollah officially rejected a ceasefire deal provisionally agreed upon by Lebanon and Israel, demanding a full Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory. This rejection led to renewed Israeli strikes and diminished prospects for an immediate ceasefire, negatively impacting market expectations for Israeli withdrawal.
Hezbollah rejects US-backed Israel-Lebanon ceasefire deal
July 31 dips to 2%2%
Hezbollah officially rejected the ceasefire deal agreed upon by Israel and Lebanon, calling it humiliating and insisting on full Israeli withdrawal. This rejection undermined prospects for a comprehensive ceasefire and contributed to continued hostilities.
Hezbollah rejects ceasefire without Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon
July 31 dips to 16%2%
Hezbollah publicly rejected any ceasefire that did not begin with Israeli withdrawal from Lebanese territory, reinforcing the impasse and reducing market confidence in a near-term Israeli withdrawal.
Hezbollah rejects U.S‑brokered Israel‑Lebanon ceasefire
Hezbollah rejected the U.S‑brokered ceasefire announced on 3 June, calling it a “partial” deal. The rejection undermined expectations of a rapid Israeli pull‑out and pushed market odds for any withdrawal date sharply lower.
Israeli strikes kill civilians as ceasefire is violated on day of announcement
Israeli air‑strikes killed at least ten people in southern Lebanon on the day the ceasefire was announced, and fighting continued the next day, signalling that ground forces were not withdrawing.
Israel and Lebanon agree to full ceasefire, Hezbollah rejects it
July 31 dips to 14%2%
Israel and Lebanon agreed to a ceasefire contingent on Hezbollah halting attacks and withdrawing, with plans for Israeli withdrawal from some areas. Hezbollah's rejection and Israel's continued operations cast doubt on a full withdrawal by July 31.
Israel and Lebanon agree to conditional ceasefire with further talks planned
July 31 dips to 16%4%
Israel and Lebanon agreed to implement a ceasefire contingent on Hezbollah ceasing fire and withdrawing operatives, with plans to reconvene talks the week of June 22. However, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that Israeli forces would continue operations and not withdraw immediately, signaling ongoing military presence and reducing withdrawal expectations.
Israel deepens ground incursion in Lebanon, threatens Beirut
Reports of Israeli troops advancing near the Qalaat al‑Shqif fortress and threatening Beirut signalled deeper ground operations, further lowering withdrawal probabilities.
Israel closes beaches and suspends schools near Lebanon border amid rising tensions
The Israeli military suspended educational activities and closed beaches near the Lebanese border as ground operations deepened and cross-border exchanges intensified, reflecting ongoing conflict and reducing expectations of imminent withdrawal.
IDF chief hints at possible symbolic withdrawals from non‑essential sites
December 31 dips to 49%3%
A minor comment from the Defence Ministry hinted at a “symbolic” withdrawal from areas that “the IDF does not need,” briefly nudging odds upward for the December‑31 market before the overall downward trend resumed.
Israeli forces advance north of Lebanon's Litani River amid ongoing conflict
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that Israeli forces had crossed the Litani River and taken control of positions in southern Lebanon, escalating the conflict and reducing market confidence in a near-term withdrawal.
Israel intensifies attacks on southern Lebanon, causing civilian casualties
July 31 drops to 18%7%
Israeli military escalated ground and air operations in southern Lebanon, including capturing strategic positions, signaling no imminent withdrawal and increasing conflict intensity. This military escalation reduced market confidence in a near-term Israeli withdrawal, contributing to price decline.
Israel expands military ground operations in southern Lebanon amid clashes with Hezbollah
July 31 drops to 25%11%
Israel intensified ground operations in southern Lebanon, aiming to secure strategic areas and protect northern towns from Hezbollah attacks. This expansion indicated no imminent withdrawal, causing market confidence in a near-term withdrawal to drop.
Israel steps up Lebanon offensive amid US push for Iran peace deal
July 31 jumps to 37%14%
Israeli military officials announced operations beyond the forward defense line in southern Lebanon, signaling an escalation despite ongoing US efforts to broker peace with Iran. This increased military activity reduced market confidence in a near-term Israeli withdrawal.
Israel intensifies strikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon
July 31 drops to 18%5%
Israel conducted extensive airstrikes on Hezbollah-linked sites in southern Lebanon, escalating conflict and signaling no imminent withdrawal, which pressured market prices downward for near-term withdrawal outcomes.
Israel expands ground operations beyond security zone in southern Lebanon
July 31 drops to 18%6%
Israeli military intensified attacks and expanded ground operations in southern Lebanon, killing soldiers and civilians, signaling no imminent withdrawal and increasing market doubts about a quick exit.
Israel expands ground operations in southern Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
July 31 dips to 28%2%
Israel intensified its ground military operations in southern Lebanon, seizing strategic areas and fortifying positions to protect northern towns from Hezbollah attacks. This escalation reduced market confidence in a near-term withdrawal by July 31.
Israeli National Security Minister vows no withdrawal from captured Lebanese territory
July 31 dips to 27%3%
On May 25, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir declared Israel would not withdraw from any territory captured in Lebanon, signaling a hardline stance that dampened market optimism for a near-term withdrawal by July 31.
Ceasefire talks begin but conflict continues in Lebanon
Despite a formal ceasefire announced in April, fighting between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon continued, with Lebanon demanding Israeli withdrawal to halt the conflict's impact on civilians. This ongoing conflict kept market uncertainty high about a withdrawal.
Israeli strikes kill 14 in Lebanon as Israel warns residents to leave towns beyond 'buffer zone'
June 30 dips to 11%3%
Israeli military strikes killed civilians in southern Lebanon and warned residents to evacuate towns beyond the buffer zone it occupied. Israel maintained military operations inside Lebanon despite the ceasefire, indicating ongoing control and conflict rather than withdrawal, which further decreased market confidence in withdrawal by June 30.
Netanyahu orders army to 'vigorously attack' Hezbollah in Lebanon amid ceasefire breaches
June 30 dips to 7%4%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered intensified military attacks against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon following ceasefire violations. This escalation and continued military presence inside Lebanon signaled no imminent withdrawal, contributing to the market's decline in the probability of withdrawal by June 30.
Israel-Lebanon ceasefire extended by three weeks after Oval Office meeting
June 30 dips to 16%2%
Following talks hosted by U.S. President Trump, Israel and Lebanon agreed to extend the ceasefire for three more weeks. Despite the extension, Israeli strikes and Hezbollah attacks continued, and Israeli forces maintained their positions inside Lebanon, signaling no imminent withdrawal and pushing market prices lower.
Israeli military publishes map showing control of new deployment line inside southern Lebanon
June 30 dips to 17%2%
Israel publicly revealed a map of its forward defense line extending 5-10 km into southern Lebanon, controlling dozens of mostly abandoned Lebanese villages. This demonstrated Israel's continued military presence and control inside Lebanon despite the ceasefire, reducing confidence in a near-term withdrawal.
Israel and Lebanon agree to U.S.-brokered 10-day ceasefire with Israeli forces remaining in southern Lebanon
June 30 plunges to 19%25%
A U.S.-mediated ceasefire took effect on April 16-17, intended to pause hostilities and enable peace talks. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that Israeli ground forces would remain in a 10-kilometer security zone inside southern Lebanon, signaling no immediate withdrawal. This initial ceasefire raised hopes but did not indicate withdrawal, causing market prices for near-term withdrawal to fall from 44%.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions