Turkey's exclusion from the F-35 program since 2019 stems from its acquisition of Russian S-400 systems, which triggered mandatory CAATSA sanctions and NDAA restrictions requiring Ankara to divest the weapons entirely before any reinstatement. Recent developments include optimistic signals from the Trump administration in mid-2026, including engine export approvals for Turkey's KAAN fighter and high-level discussions ahead of NATO events, alongside failed attempts to transfer S-400 batteries to the UAE in August 2026. Congressional opposition remains firm, with lawmakers citing ongoing Russian ties, Hamas financing concerns, and data-security risks. These legal and diplomatic hurdles continue to shape trader assessments of near-term reentry prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$44,976 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31, 2026
8%
June 30, 2027
16%
$44,976 Vol.
December 31, 2026
$32,628 Vol.
8%
June 30, 2027
$12,348 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.Turkey's exclusion from the F-35 program since 2019 stems from its acquisition of Russian S-400 systems, which triggered mandatory CAATSA sanctions and NDAA restrictions requiring Ankara to divest the weapons entirely before any reinstatement. Recent developments include optimistic signals from the Trump administration in mid-2026, including engine export approvals for Turkey's KAAN fighter and high-level discussions ahead of NATO events, alongside failed attempts to transfer S-400 batteries to the UAE in August 2026. Congressional opposition remains firm, with lawmakers citing ongoing Russian ties, Hamas financing concerns, and data-security risks. These legal and diplomatic hurdles continue to shape trader assessments of near-term reentry prospects.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ET
Volume
$44,976End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.Turkey's exclusion from the F-35 program since 2019 stems from its acquisition of Russian S-400 systems, which triggered mandatory CAATSA sanctions and NDAA restrictions requiring Ankara to divest the weapons entirely before any reinstatement. Recent developments include optimistic signals from the Trump administration in mid-2026, including engine export approvals for Turkey's KAAN fighter and high-level discussions ahead of NATO events, alongside failed attempts to transfer S-400 batteries to the UAE in August 2026. Congressional opposition remains firm, with lawmakers citing ongoing Russian ties, Hamas financing concerns, and data-security risks. These legal and diplomatic hurdles continue to shape trader assessments of near-term reentry prospects.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey becomes formally included in the F-35 program between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Turkey will be considered formally included in the F-35 program if any of the following occur:
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Partner;
- Turkey is officially listed by the F-35 Joint Program Office as an F-35 Foreign Military Sales Customer; or
- the United States federal government officially announces that Turkey has signed or accepted a Foreign Military Sales Letter (FMS) of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) for F-35 aircraft or F-35 components.
Statements of intent, negotiations, sanctions relief, waiver or certification of legal restrictions, congressional notification, or general announcements that the United States supports or is considering an F-35 sale to Turkey will not qualify unless one of the above conditions is met.
Once a qualifying action has occurred, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent reversal, suspension, or cancellation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the F-35 Joint Program Office and the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be considered.
Volume
$44,976End Date
Jul 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 14, 2026, 10:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Turkey's exclusion from the F-35 program since 2019 stems from its acquisition of Russian S-400 systems, which triggered mandatory CAATSA sanctions and NDAA restrictions requiring Ankara to divest the weapons entirely before any reinstatement. Recent developments include optimistic signals from the Trump administration in mid-2026, including engine export approvals for Turkey's KAAN fighter and high-level discussions ahead of NATO events, alongside failed attempts to transfer S-400 batteries to the UAE in August 2026. Congressional opposition remains firm, with lawmakers citing ongoing Russian ties, Hamas financing concerns, and data-security risks. These legal and diplomatic hurdles continue to shape trader assessments of near-term reentry prospects.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions