**Turkey's ruling AKP-led alliance holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360 votes needed for a referendum or 400 for direct amendment of the constitution.** Official statements from President Erdoğan, Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş, and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek have reiterated the goal of replacing the 1982 charter with a civilian document, with preparatory commissions active and ties to the ongoing PKK peace process and term-limit considerations for 2028. However, no draft has advanced to a parliamentary vote or public referendum process in 2026. Recent legislative focus has instead centered on judicial packages and electoral adjustments, while opposition fragmentation and the absence of cross-party consensus have kept momentum limited. Traders price the "No" outcome at 91.5% in line with these persistent numerical and procedural hurdles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
9% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Turkey's ruling AKP-led alliance holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360 votes needed for a referendum or 400 for direct amendment of the constitution.** Official statements from President Erdoğan, Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş, and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek have reiterated the goal of replacing the 1982 charter with a civilian document, with preparatory commissions active and ties to the ongoing PKK peace process and term-limit considerations for 2028. However, no draft has advanced to a parliamentary vote or public referendum process in 2026. Recent legislative focus has instead centered on judicial packages and electoral adjustments, while opposition fragmentation and the absence of cross-party consensus have kept momentum limited. Traders price the "No" outcome at 91.5% in line with these persistent numerical and procedural hurdles.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$7,475End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Turkey's ruling AKP-led alliance holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360 votes needed for a referendum or 400 for direct amendment of the constitution.** Official statements from President Erdoğan, Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş, and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek have reiterated the goal of replacing the 1982 charter with a civilian document, with preparatory commissions active and ties to the ongoing PKK peace process and term-limit considerations for 2028. However, no draft has advanced to a parliamentary vote or public referendum process in 2026. Recent legislative focus has instead centered on judicial packages and electoral adjustments, while opposition fragmentation and the absence of cross-party consensus have kept momentum limited. Traders price the "No" outcome at 91.5% in line with these persistent numerical and procedural hurdles.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$7,475End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Turkey's ruling AKP-led alliance holds roughly 321 seats in the 600-member parliament, well short of the 360 votes needed for a referendum or 400 for direct amendment of the constitution.** Official statements from President Erdoğan, Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmuş, and Justice Minister Akın Gürlek have reiterated the goal of replacing the 1982 charter with a civilian document, with preparatory commissions active and ties to the ongoing PKK peace process and term-limit considerations for 2028. However, no draft has advanced to a parliamentary vote or public referendum process in 2026. Recent legislative focus has instead centered on judicial packages and electoral adjustments, while opposition fragmentation and the absence of cross-party consensus have kept momentum limited. Traders price the "No" outcome at 91.5% in line with these persistent numerical and procedural hurdles.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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