Despite the Justice and Development Party (AKP) submitting an initial draft of a new constitution to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in late February 2026 and outlining a reform roadmap emphasizing broad parliamentary support, no subsequent legislative action—such as a vote in the Grand National Assembly—has materialized in the past month. AKP and allies hold approximately 330 seats, falling short of the 360-vote threshold required to trigger a referendum without presidential initiative, amid strong opposition from the CHP-led bloc wary of potential executive power expansions. Traders' 82.5% consensus on "No" reflects stalled momentum, economic challenges, and focus on 2028 elections over divisive constitutional talks before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedNEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite the Justice and Development Party (AKP) submitting an initial draft of a new constitution to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in late February 2026 and outlining a reform roadmap emphasizing broad parliamentary support, no subsequent legislative action—such as a vote in the Grand National Assembly—has materialized in the past month. AKP and allies hold approximately 330 seats, falling short of the 360-vote threshold required to trigger a referendum without presidential initiative, amid strong opposition from the CHP-led bloc wary of potential executive power expansions. Traders' 82.5% consensus on "No" reflects stalled momentum, economic challenges, and focus on 2028 elections over divisive constitutional talks before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ET
Volume
$32End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Despite the Justice and Development Party (AKP) submitting an initial draft of a new constitution to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in late February 2026 and outlining a reform roadmap emphasizing broad parliamentary support, no subsequent legislative action—such as a vote in the Grand National Assembly—has materialized in the past month. AKP and allies hold approximately 330 seats, falling short of the 360-vote threshold required to trigger a referendum without presidential initiative, amid strong opposition from the CHP-led bloc wary of potential executive power expansions. Traders' 82.5% consensus on "No" reflects stalled momentum, economic challenges, and focus on 2028 elections over divisive constitutional talks before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a referendum to adopt a new constitution in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey to adopt a new constitution. Referenda to approve one or more amendments to the Constitution will not qualify.
Qualifying announcements must specify a date for the referendum or definitively announce that a referendum will be held. An announcement by the specified date will qualify regardless of when the referendum is scheduled to be held.
If a new constitution is officially adopted within the specified timeframe without a referendum (e.g., via the required parliamentary supermajority), this market will immediately resolve this market to “Yes.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$32End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 1, 2026, 4:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite the Justice and Development Party (AKP) submitting an initial draft of a new constitution to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in late February 2026 and outlining a reform roadmap emphasizing broad parliamentary support, no subsequent legislative action—such as a vote in the Grand National Assembly—has materialized in the past month. AKP and allies hold approximately 330 seats, falling short of the 360-vote threshold required to trigger a referendum without presidential initiative, amid strong opposition from the CHP-led bloc wary of potential executive power expansions. Traders' 82.5% consensus on "No" reflects stalled momentum, economic challenges, and focus on 2028 elections over divisive constitutional talks before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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