Erdoğan’s second presidential term, secured in the 2023 election, extends through 2028 under Turkey’s constitution, with no scheduled vote or vacancy trigger before then. Recent developments reinforce continuity: as of September 2026, he continues active governance through cabinet meetings, economic announcements, and regional policy statements, while his AKP-MHP alliance explores parliamentary mechanisms for a possible third candidacy in 2028 without advancing early elections. Opposition fragmentation, including court actions against CHP leadership and the imprisonment of figures like Ekrem İmamoğlu, has limited immediate challenges. Trader consensus at 94.5% for “No” reflects the absence of credible near-term pathways for removal amid institutional control and lack of health or political crises forcing an exit by December 31, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedErdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?
6% chance
$635,569 Vol.
$635,569 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Earn 3.25%
6% chance
$635,569 Vol.
$635,569 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
Earn 3.25%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Erdoğan’s second presidential term, secured in the 2023 election, extends through 2028 under Turkey’s constitution, with no scheduled vote or vacancy trigger before then. Recent developments reinforce continuity: as of September 2026, he continues active governance through cabinet meetings, economic announcements, and regional policy statements, while his AKP-MHP alliance explores parliamentary mechanisms for a possible third candidacy in 2028 without advancing early elections. Opposition fragmentation, including court actions against CHP leadership and the imprisonment of figures like Ekrem İmamoğlu, has limited immediate challenges. Trader consensus at 94.5% for “No” reflects the absence of credible near-term pathways for removal amid institutional control and lack of health or political crises forcing an exit by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Volume
$635,569End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Erdoğan’s second presidential term, secured in the 2023 election, extends through 2028 under Turkey’s constitution, with no scheduled vote or vacancy trigger before then. Recent developments reinforce continuity: as of September 2026, he continues active governance through cabinet meetings, economic announcements, and regional policy statements, while his AKP-MHP alliance explores parliamentary mechanisms for a possible third candidacy in 2028 without advancing early elections. Opposition fragmentation, including court actions against CHP leadership and the imprisonment of figures like Ekrem İmamoğlu, has limited immediate challenges. Trader consensus at 94.5% for “No” reflects the absence of credible near-term pathways for removal amid institutional control and lack of health or political crises forcing an exit by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Recep Tayyip Erdoğan ceases to be President of the Republic of Türkiye for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the government of Türkiye; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$635,569End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2025, 7:36 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Erdoğan’s second presidential term, secured in the 2023 election, extends through 2028 under Turkey’s constitution, with no scheduled vote or vacancy trigger before then. Recent developments reinforce continuity: as of September 2026, he continues active governance through cabinet meetings, economic announcements, and regional policy statements, while his AKP-MHP alliance explores parliamentary mechanisms for a possible third candidacy in 2028 without advancing early elections. Opposition fragmentation, including court actions against CHP leadership and the imprisonment of figures like Ekrem İmamoğlu, has limited immediate challenges. Trader consensus at 94.5% for “No” reflects the absence of credible near-term pathways for removal amid institutional control and lack of health or political crises forcing an exit by December 31, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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