Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan holds office under a term scheduled to conclude in 2028, with constitutional provisions that permit a potential third term only in the event of early elections. Recent court rulings have removed the leader of the main opposition CHP, while investigations and arrests have targeted other opposition figures, reducing near-term challenges to the ruling AKP. No verified announcements of resignation, confirmed health issues forcing departure, or institutional pressures indicate an exit before the end of 2026. Traders assign an implied 92.5 percent probability to "No" because these structural and political factors point to continuity through at least the next eighteen months, absent unforeseen developments such as sudden constitutional shifts or external shocks.