**Recent political developments in Turkey indicate limited momentum for a constitutional referendum announcement before the end of 2026.** Presidential advisor Mehmet Uçum stated on August 27 that completing a new constitution remains unlikely in the current 28th legislative term and would more probably occur under the next parliament, with any major changes requiring broad parliamentary support and a popular vote for legitimacy. Parliament passed a landmark “Terror-Free Türkiye” framework law in mid-August with 467 votes, advancing the Kurdish peace process and PKK disarmament, but this has not translated into draft constitutional amendments or a referendum timeline. The AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 328 seats—short of the 360 needed for a referendum call or snap elections—while recent AKP internal drafts on shifting some presidential powers remain preliminary and unadopted. With the year more than two-thirds complete and official signals deferring action, traders assign an 82.5% probability to no announcement occurring.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated17% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
17% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent political developments in Turkey indicate limited momentum for a constitutional referendum announcement before the end of 2026.** Presidential advisor Mehmet Uçum stated on August 27 that completing a new constitution remains unlikely in the current 28th legislative term and would more probably occur under the next parliament, with any major changes requiring broad parliamentary support and a popular vote for legitimacy.
Parliament passed a landmark “Terror-Free Türkiye” framework law in mid-August with 467 votes, advancing the Kurdish peace process and PKK disarmament, but this has not translated into draft constitutional amendments or a referendum timeline. The AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 328 seats—short of the 360 needed for a referendum call or snap elections—while recent AKP internal drafts on shifting some presidential powers remain preliminary and unadopted.
With the year more than two-thirds complete and official signals deferring action, traders assign an 82.5% probability to no announcement occurring.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ET
Volume
$6,794End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent political developments in Turkey indicate limited momentum for a constitutional referendum announcement before the end of 2026.** Presidential advisor Mehmet Uçum stated on August 27 that completing a new constitution remains unlikely in the current 28th legislative term and would more probably occur under the next parliament, with any major changes requiring broad parliamentary support and a popular vote for legitimacy.
Parliament passed a landmark “Terror-Free Türkiye” framework law in mid-August with 467 votes, advancing the Kurdish peace process and PKK disarmament, but this has not translated into draft constitutional amendments or a referendum timeline. The AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 328 seats—short of the 360 needed for a referendum call or snap elections—while recent AKP internal drafts on shifting some presidential powers remain preliminary and unadopted.
With the year more than two-thirds complete and official signals deferring action, traders assign an 82.5% probability to no announcement occurring.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a constitutional referendum in Turkey is officially announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Constitutional referendum refers to any nationwide vote in Turkey on whether to approve an amendment, or multiple amendments, to the Turkish Constitution.
Officially announced refers to any announcement of a specific date for the referendum, or a definitive announcement that a referendum will be held (e.g. after a constitutional amendment has passed the parliament and been submitted to a referendum by the president).
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Turkey; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$6,794End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent political developments in Turkey indicate limited momentum for a constitutional referendum announcement before the end of 2026.** Presidential advisor Mehmet Uçum stated on August 27 that completing a new constitution remains unlikely in the current 28th legislative term and would more probably occur under the next parliament, with any major changes requiring broad parliamentary support and a popular vote for legitimacy. Parliament passed a landmark “Terror-Free Türkiye” framework law in mid-August with 467 votes, advancing the Kurdish peace process and PKK disarmament, but this has not translated into draft constitutional amendments or a referendum timeline. The AKP-MHP alliance holds roughly 328 seats—short of the 360 needed for a referendum call or snap elections—while recent AKP internal drafts on shifting some presidential powers remain preliminary and unadopted. With the year more than two-thirds complete and official signals deferring action, traders assign an 82.5% probability to no announcement occurring.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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