Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 2026 Knesset election show Otzma Yehudit maintaining independent viability while Noam polls near or below the electoral threshold at under 1%. Netanyahu has pressed Itamar Ben-Gvir to form a joint list with Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party to consolidate right-wing votes, yet Ben-Gvir has rejected any such merger, declaring Otzma Yehudit’s separation final. Noam has rebranded and unveiled its own candidates without reported negotiations for a technical bloc with Otzma Yehudit, continuing the post-2022 pattern of independent factions after prior splits from larger alliances. These developments, including vote fragmentation risks from new entrants like Ofer Winter’s party, underpin trader expectations that the two parties will not appear on the same list.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0% chance
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Sep 7, 2026
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Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 2026 Knesset election show Otzma Yehudit maintaining independent viability while Noam polls near or below the electoral threshold at under 1%. Netanyahu has pressed Itamar Ben-Gvir to form a joint list with Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party to consolidate right-wing votes, yet Ben-Gvir has rejected any such merger, declaring Otzma Yehudit’s separation final. Noam has rebranded and unveiled its own candidates without reported negotiations for a technical bloc with Otzma Yehudit, continuing the post-2022 pattern of independent factions after prior splits from larger alliances. These developments, including vote fragmentation risks from new entrants like Ofer Winter’s party, underpin trader expectations that the two parties will not appear on the same list.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Volume
$30End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 2026 Knesset election show Otzma Yehudit maintaining independent viability while Noam polls near or below the electoral threshold at under 1%. Netanyahu has pressed Itamar Ben-Gvir to form a joint list with Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party to consolidate right-wing votes, yet Ben-Gvir has rejected any such merger, declaring Otzma Yehudit’s separation final. Noam has rebranded and unveiled its own candidates without reported negotiations for a technical bloc with Otzma Yehudit, continuing the post-2022 pattern of independent factions after prior splits from larger alliances. These developments, including vote fragmentation risks from new entrants like Ofer Winter’s party, underpin trader expectations that the two parties will not appear on the same list.
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Otzma Yehudit and Noam contest the 2026 Knesset elections as a combined party list, as submitted to the Central Elections Committee. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which candidates from both parties appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions the candidates occupy on the list.
If candidates of neither party appear on any list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).
Volume
$30End Date
Sep 7, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polls ahead of Israel's October 2026 Knesset election show Otzma Yehudit maintaining independent viability while Noam polls near or below the electoral threshold at under 1%. Netanyahu has pressed Itamar Ben-Gvir to form a joint list with Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party to consolidate right-wing votes, yet Ben-Gvir has rejected any such merger, declaring Otzma Yehudit’s separation final. Noam has rebranded and unveiled its own candidates without reported negotiations for a technical bloc with Otzma Yehudit, continuing the post-2022 pattern of independent factions after prior splits from larger alliances. These developments, including vote fragmentation risks from new entrants like Ofer Winter’s party, underpin trader expectations that the two parties will not appear on the same list.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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