Israeli military operations in 2026 have centered on sustained airstrikes and ground actions against Iran since the February 28 outbreak of direct conflict, alongside expanded targeting of Hezbollah infrastructure across Lebanon. These actions, including strikes on leadership and military sites in both countries, form the core of recent activity amid ongoing proxy confrontations involving groups such as the Houthis and Iraqi militias. Renewed Israel-Iran exchanges in early June, following the April ceasefire, have reinforced trader focus on these two primary fronts without clear expansion to additional sovereign states. With half the year elapsed and diplomatic efforts ongoing, the market's emphasis on four or five countries reflects the current concentration of verified strikes and limited evidence of broader escalation to new targets like Syria or Yemen in the resolution window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsraeli drone strike kills three Palestinians in Gaza despite ceasefire
4 surges to 60%32%
On July 1, 2026, an Israeli drone strike near a Gaza hospital killed at least three Palestinians despite an ongoing ceasefire. This confirmed continued Israeli strikes limited to Gaza, supporting the market's view of a low number of countries struck by Israel.
Israel validates new Iron Dome upgrade to counter missile and drone attacks
On June 30, Israel announced successful validation of upgrades to its Iron Dome air defense system, enhancing its ability to counter mass missile and drone attacks. This development suggests Israel's focus on defense and precision strikes, with no indication of expanding strikes to additional countries.
Israel validates upgraded Iron Dome air defense system
4 drops to 47%6%
On June 30, Israel announced successful validation of an upgraded Iron Dome system to counter mass missile and drone attacks, reinforcing Israel's defensive capabilities. This development likely reduced market fears of Israeli strikes spreading to multiple countries, supporting lower strike count outcomes.
Israel strikes southern Lebanon despite US-brokered security deal
4 surges to 41%17%
On June 28, 2026, Israel conducted drone strikes in southern Lebanon despite a US-brokered security agreement signed days earlier. This demonstrated ongoing Israeli military operations confined to Lebanon, reinforcing market confidence in a low number of countries struck.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
Iran's IRGC launched missile and drone strikes on US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain on June 28, 2026, escalating regional tensions. However, these strikes were by Iran, not Israel, and thus did not affect the market's resolution regarding Israeli strikes on other countries.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan
4 jumps to 50%10%
Following US strikes on Iranian targets, Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US military installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan on June 28, 2026. This expanded the conflict to multiple countries in the Gulf region, influencing market expectations of strikes in these countries.
Israel strikes southern Lebanon amid new framework agreement
4 jumps to 53%10%
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed at least one person a day after Lebanon and Israel signed a framework agreement. This confirmed Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil, adding a second country to the count of countries struck by Israel in 2026.
Israel renews strikes in southern Lebanon despite peace framework
4 drops to 40%9%
Despite the June 26 framework agreement, Israel conducted drone and air strikes in southern Lebanon on June 27, escalating tensions and demonstrating ongoing military operations in Lebanese territory. Hezbollah rejected the deal, and clashes continued, reinforcing market expectations of Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
Iranian drone strikes tanker in Strait of Hormuz, US retaliates with strikes on Iran
4 jumps to 50%12%
On June 27, 2026, an Iranian drone struck the Panama-flagged tanker M/T Kiku in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting US retaliatory strikes on Iranian military targets. This incident underscored the ongoing conflict in the strategic maritime chokepoint, affecting market perceptions of regional instability and potential strikes in countries bordering the strait.
U.S. launches strikes against Iran; Iran retaliates targeting U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
7 rises to 30%3%
U.S. airstrikes on Iranian military sites and Iran's retaliatory missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain escalated regional conflict, increasing the risk of Israeli strikes on multiple countries' soil allied with Iran.
Israel, Lebanon, and US sign framework agreement for Israeli withdrawal
4 surges to 49%25%
On June 26, 2026, Israel and Lebanon signed a US-brokered framework agreement outlining a path for Israeli withdrawal contingent on Hezbollah disarmament. This agreement was significant for the conflict dynamics in Lebanon, where Israeli strikes continued despite the deal, affecting market perceptions of strikes in Lebanon and related countries.
Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz Over Renewed Israeli Strikes in Lebanon
4 rises to 53%4%
Iran announced the closure of the strategic waterway in response to intense Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon, threatening the fragile peace deal and raising the likelihood of wider regional strikes.
Israel hits oil installation in Iraq’s Kurdish region
11 rises to 11%1%
Israel carried out an air‑strike on an oil installation in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, the first reported Israeli attack on Kurdish territory, adding the Kurdistan Region as a distinct country‑level entity for market purposes.
Israeli airstrikes hit Lebanon minutes after new ceasefire
Minutes after a new ceasefire came into force between Israel and Hezbollah, Israeli airstrikes hit southern Lebanon, indicating the fragility of the ceasefire and ongoing hostilities. This event sustained market confidence in Lebanon being a strike target.
Islamabad Memorandum signed to de-escalate regional conflict
4 rises to 54%4%
The Islamabad Memorandum, mediated by Pakistan, aimed to reduce hostilities following joint U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, impacting market expectations by potentially limiting the number of countries Israel would strike in 2026.
Israeli air strikes continue targeting southern Lebanon despite US-Iran deal
4 plunges to 1%15%
On 17 June 2026, Israeli air strikes persisted in southern Lebanon despite a US-Iran agreement to end the war, threatening the framework deal. This ongoing military activity in Lebanon reinforced market expectations that Israel would strike Lebanon but not expand to many other countries.
Israeli airstrikes continue targeting southern Lebanon despite US-Iran deal
4 plunges to 15%19%
Israeli airstrikes targeted towns in southern Lebanon despite a US-Iran agreement to end the war on all fronts. This ongoing conflict in Lebanon influenced market perceptions of Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil.
Israeli airstrikes continue in southern Lebanon despite US-Iran ceasefire deal
Despite a formal ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, Israeli airstrikes persisted in southern Lebanon, targeting towns such as Kfar Tebnit. This ongoing conflict threatened the stability of the ceasefire and underscored Israel's continued military operations on Lebanese soil.
Turkey warns Israeli strikes on Syria and Lebanon threaten its security
5 rises to 5%4%
Turkish President Erdogan publicly warned that Israeli military strikes in Syria and Lebanon have escalated to a level that threatens Turkey's security, indicating regional spillover risks and potential future conflict involving Turkey.
Report Reveals Israel Launched Airstrikes Against Iran From Jordanian Airspace
4 surges to 51%17%
A military intelligence report revealed that Israel used Jordanian airspace to launch its airstrikes against Iran. While Jordan assisted defensively, the lack of direct Israeli strikes on Jordanian soil kept the country count from rising further.
Iran launches missile strike on Israel, intercepted by Israeli air defenses
6 rises to 5%2%
Iran launched missile strikes on Israel, which were intercepted, signaling ongoing hostilities and the likelihood of Israeli strikes on Iranian or allied territories, influencing market expectations of strikes on multiple countries.
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iranian cities Tehran, Tabriz, and Isfahan
4 surges to 38%20%
On June 8, 2026, Israel carried out airstrikes targeting IRGC missile infrastructure and nuclear-linked facilities in Iranian cities, marking the first Israeli strikes on Iranian mainland since the April ceasefire. This escalation increased tensions and confirmed Israel's willingness to strike Iranian territory, impacting market expectations for strikes in multiple countries.
Israel Strikes Iranian Military and Fuel Targets Following Missile Exchanges
4 surges to 48%19%
Israel launched fresh airstrikes on southwestern Iran, hitting a petrochemical complex in Mahshahr, while the Houthis fired missiles at Israel, keeping the conflict active across multiple fronts.
Iran‑Israel missile and drone attacks intensify after cease‑fire
4 jumps to 52%6%
A Chosun article noted a post‑ceasefire escalation of missile and drone attacks between Iran and Israel, suggesting the conflict could spill over to other regional actors, causing a modest uptick in market odds for higher strike counts.
Israel resumes airstrikes on Iran after Iranian missile attacks
4 jumps to 33%8%
On June 8, 2026, Israel launched airstrikes on Iran following Iranian missile attacks on northern Israel, signaling renewed hostilities and reinforcing the ongoing conflict with Iran as a primary target country.
Israel strikes police post in southern Beirut after Hezbollah attack
Israel hit a police post in the Dahiyeh district of Beirut, Lebanon, after a Hezbollah attack. The strike was reported as a targeted Israeli attack on a specific urban area, reinforcing Lebanon’s role in the country tally.
Israel conducts airstrikes in southern Lebanon amid ceasefire tensions
5 rises to 30%3%
On June 7, 2026, Israel carried out airstrikes in southern Lebanon after ordering evacuations, despite ongoing ceasefire talks. This continued military activity in Lebanon reinforced the market's view of Lebanon as a distinct country struck by Israel in 2026.
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iran after Iranian missile attacks
In early June 2026, Israel launched airstrikes on Iranian military sites in response to Iranian missile attacks on northern Israel, marking a renewed escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict within the year.
Israel renews airstrikes on southern Beirut amid ceasefire tensions
4 rises to 28%3%
On 6 June 2026, Israel launched airstrikes on southern Beirut in retaliation against Hezbollah drone attacks, despite a renewed ceasefire. This continued military activity in Lebanon reinforced the market's expectation of strikes limited to Lebanon and Iran.
Israel strikes Beirut suburbs in retaliation against Hezbollah
On June 6, 2026, Israel conducted airstrikes in the Dahieh district of Beirut, marking the first such attack on the Lebanese capital since a US-brokered ceasefire was renewed. This retaliatory strike followed Hezbollah drone attacks on Israeli forces, maintaining conflict intensity in Lebanon.
Israeli airstrikes kill Lebanese army officers after ceasefire deal
4 jumps to 18%8%
On June 6, 2026, Israeli airstrikes killed multiple Lebanese army officers, violating a recent ceasefire deal and threatening the fragile truce. This event underscored continued Israeli military activity in Lebanon, supporting market expectations of strikes limited to Lebanon and Gaza.
Hezbollah rejects US-brokered ceasefire as Israeli strikes continue in Lebanon
4 plunges to 28%19%
On June 5, 2026, Hezbollah formally rejected a US-brokered ceasefire agreement with Israel, while Israeli airstrikes persisted in southern Lebanon. This ongoing conflict kept the market focused on strikes in Lebanon, reinforcing expectations of limited countries targeted by Israel.
Israeli drone strikes hit vehicles near Beirut, testing US-mediated ceasefire
4 surges to 44%27%
On June 3, Israeli drone strikes targeted vehicles near Beirut, Lebanon, wounding civilians and testing the fragile US-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, showing ongoing Israeli military activity in Lebanon.
Israel expands strikes and ground operations in southern Lebanon
5 jumps to 39%8%
Israel intensified airstrikes and expanded ground operations beyond its declared security zone in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah and increasing military pressure in the region, contributing to the count of countries struck by Israel.
WSJ Exposes Secret Israeli Military Base and Airstrikes in Iraq
4 jumps to 32%14%
The Wall Street Journal revealed that Israel had built a secret base in Iraq and used airstrikes to defend it. This public confirmation of direct Israeli strikes on Iraqi soil solidified the count of struck countries.
Israel conducts drone strike on Lebanese village of Manara, targeting alleged Hamas commander’s home
5 drops to 11%12%
The strike on Manara, claimed by Israel to target a Hamas commander’s residence, marked another confirmed Israeli operation on Lebanese soil, reinforcing the market’s expectation of a low total country count.
Israel strikes Beirut suburbs targeting Hezbollah commander
4 dips to 1%2%
Israel conducted airstrikes on Beirut's suburbs, the first since the April ceasefire, targeting a senior Hezbollah commander. This confirmed ongoing Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory despite ceasefire agreements.
Israel strikes Beirut for first time since Lebanon ceasefire
4 jumps to 38%8%
On 6 May 2026, Israel conducted an airstrike targeting a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut, marking the first strike on the Lebanese capital since the April ceasefire. This event maintained market focus on Lebanon as a strike location.
U.S.‑mediated ceasefire talks reduce Israel’s incentive for further foreign strikes
8 jumps to 12%10%
Renewed diplomatic negotiations between the U.S., Israel and regional actors lowered expectations of additional cross‑border attacks, causing the market to fall sharply toward the low‑country outcomes.
Israeli air strikes kill at least 10 in southern Lebanon violating ceasefire
4 dips to 16%3%
On 2 May 2026, Israel launched multiple air strikes across southern Lebanon, killing at least 10 people and violating the ceasefire declared two weeks prior. Continued strikes in Lebanon maintained market focus on Lebanon as a key country struck by Israel.
Israeli drone strike hits Iraqi border outpost
10 rises to 10%1%
Israeli drones hit an Iraqi border outpost in the Kurdish region, marking the first Israeli strike on Iraqi soil and raising the total country count.
Israeli airstrikes kill 10 in southern Lebanon amid Hezbollah rocket fire
Israel conducted several airstrikes in southern Lebanon killing at least 10 people, while Hezbollah fired rockets and drones at northern Israel. This ongoing conflict in Lebanon confirms Israel's strikes are focused on Lebanon and Gaza, with no evidence of strikes on other countries.
Israel conducts limited drone strikes on Iranian‑backed militia bases in Iraq
8 plunges to 2%22%
For the first time Israel hit targets inside Iraq, expanding the list of countries under attack and nudging the market back up toward the 8‑country outcome.
Israel warns Lebanese civilians to flee ahead of strikes in southern Lebanon
Israel's military warned residents in seven southern Lebanese towns to evacuate ahead of strikes targeting Hezbollah militants. This continued Israeli military activity in Lebanon reinforced the expectation of strikes limited to Lebanon and Gaza.
10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah takes effect in Lebanon
A ceasefire was agreed between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, temporarily halting hostilities. Despite this, Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket fire continued sporadically, indicating ongoing conflict primarily limited to Lebanon and Gaza.
Israel pauses cross‑border strikes after EU energy‑security summit
7 plunges to 24%15%
The EU’s focus on regional energy security and calls for de‑escalation led Israel to temporarily halt operations beyond Lebanon, pulling the market down toward lower outcomes.
Israel launches airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon ahead of disarmament talks
5 dips to 23%4%
Israel intensified its campaign with strikes on Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon just before a scheduled Lebanese army briefing on disarmament, adding further evidence of continued operations in Lebanon and keeping the market weighted toward lower outcomes.
Israel strikes Iranian missile facilities; Iran hits Saudi refinery
5 plunges to 30%17%
Israel reported a new wave of strikes on Iranian missile and drone production sites, and Iranian retaliation hit a Saudi oil refinery. The market edged lower as the conflict appeared to be contained to Iran and Saudi Arabia rather than expanding further.
Israel launches powerful air strikes across Lebanon despite Iran ceasefire
4 drops to 20%14%
On 8 April 2026, Israel launched its most powerful attacks on Lebanon, killing at least 357 people shortly after a ceasefire announcement in the Iran war. This marked a significant strike on Lebanese soil, impacting market expectations about the number of countries struck.
Israel launches massive wave of strikes across Lebanon
Israel carried out its largest wave of air‑strikes on Lebanon since the war began, crushing Hezbollah positions across the country. Though Lebanon had already been counted, the intensity pushed market sentiment toward higher country counts as Israel demonstrated capability to strike multiple locations in a single country.
Israel launches powerful airstrikes on Lebanon despite ceasefire
5 jumps to 20%14%
Shortly after a ceasefire announcement in the 2026 Iran war, Israel launched its most powerful airstrikes on Lebanon, killing hundreds and targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, escalating the conflict in Lebanon and expanding the number of countries struck by Israel.
Israel Launches Massive Wave of Airstrikes Across Lebanon Despite Ceasefire
4 drops to 15%12%
Shortly after a ceasefire was announced, Israel launched its most powerful attacks on Lebanon, striking central Beirut and killing hundreds, solidifying Lebanon as a primary target country.
Israel launches powerful airstrikes across Lebanon despite ceasefire
On 8 April 2026, Israel conducted its most powerful airstrikes on Lebanon, killing hundreds and targeting Hezbollah militants, disrupting the ceasefire and intensifying the conflict in Lebanon.
Israel launches powerful airstrikes on Lebanon amid ceasefire
4 drops to 17%8%
Despite a ceasefire announcement, Israel launched its most powerful airstrikes on Lebanon on April 8, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and killing hundreds, indicating continued Israeli military action focused on Lebanon alongside Iran.
Israel conducts major airstrike on Iranian airbases in Tehran
Israel carried out a significant overnight strike targeting Iranian Air Force and IRGC air units in Tehran, disrupting missile launch capabilities. This demonstrated Israel's direct military action on Iranian soil, reinforcing the market's expectation of strikes in multiple countries.
Israel strikes Iranian airbases in Tehran
6 rises to 7%2%
Israel carried out a major overnight strike on Iranian air facilities in Tehran, targeting both the Iranian Air Force and IRGC air units. This confirmed continued Israeli strikes on Iranian territory, reinforcing the market's assessment of strikes on Iran.
Israel conducts major overnight air strikes on Iranian airbases in Tehran
5 jumps to 39%8%
On 6 April 2026, Israel carried out a significant air strike targeting Iranian Air Force and IRGC air units in Tehran, disrupting missile launch capabilities. This escalation reinforced the market's view of Israel striking Iranian territory.
Hezbollah fires drone at northern Israel amid ongoing conflict
4 jumps to 40%5%
Hezbollah launched a drone attack on northern Israel, prompting Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. This continued the pattern of Israeli strikes on Lebanon, reinforcing the market's expectation of strikes in at least two countries outside Israel's borders.
Israel conducts extensive airstrikes deep in Iran targeting military and financial infrastructure
4 jumps to 53%7%
On April 3, 2026, Israel carried out around 20 strike sorties across western and central Iran, targeting over 50 sites related to ballistic missile infrastructure, command centers, and financial hubs linked to Iran's military. This large-scale operation confirmed Israeli strikes on Iranian soil, reinforcing the market's expectation of Israel striking multiple countries, including Iran.
Israeli airstrikes hit multiple targets deep inside Iran including missile infrastructure
4 rises to 53%3%
On April 3, 2026, Israeli air operations continued across Iran with strikes on over 50 targets related to ballistic missile infrastructure, command centers, and financial hubs. This confirmed Israel's active strikes on Iranian soil, reinforcing the market's expectation of strikes in Iran and Lebanon only.
Israel intercepts Iranian missile attacks; Hezbollah claims retaliatory strikes from Lebanon
4 jumps to 50%12%
On April 2, 2026, Israeli air defenses intercepted multiple missile waves launched from Iran. Hezbollah claimed missile and drone attacks targeting Israeli border areas, prompting Israeli strikes in Lebanon. These events confirmed ongoing conflict involving Israel, Iran, and Lebanon but no new countries were reported as strike targets by Israel.
Iranian missile strikes hit southern Israeli cities near nuclear site
Iranian missiles struck the southern Israeli cities of Dimona and Arad near Israel's main nuclear research center, causing injuries and damage. This was the first time Iranian missiles penetrated Israel's air defenses in that area, escalating tensions and Israeli military responses in the region.
Israeli air defenses respond to Iranian missile attacks; no confirmed Israeli strikes on new countries
4 jumps to 37%6%
On March 31, 2026, Israeli air defense systems intercepted missiles launched from Iran targeting Israeli territory, with sirens activated over Jerusalem. No credible reports indicated Israeli strikes on countries other than Iran and Lebanon, reinforcing market confidence that strikes would be limited to these countries.
Israel strikes Houthi targets in Yemen in response to missile attacks
5 jumps to 15%5%
Israel launched airstrikes on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen, including the capital Sanaa and Hodeidah port, in retaliation for missile and drone attacks on Israel, expanding the conflict to Yemen's territory.
Yemen's Houthis Resume Attacks Against Israel, Joining the Regional Conflict
5 rises to 32%3%
The Houthis in Yemen launched ballistic missiles at Israel, prompting expectations of retaliatory Israeli airstrikes on Yemeni soil, which would increase the total count of struck countries.
Air Strikes Target PMF Headquarters at Kirkuk Airport in Iraq
5 drops to 23%8%
Airstrikes blamed on the US and Israel hit the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) headquarters in Kirkuk, Iraq, killing three fighters and two police officers. This further solidified Iraq as a confirmed target country.
Iranian missile strikes hit Israeli cities Arad and Dimona
4 jumps to 49%9%
On March 22, Iranian missiles struck Israeli cities Arad and Dimona, causing damage and casualties. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed to continue striking enemies on all fronts, but no credible reports indicated Israeli strikes on new foreign countries' soil, keeping market expectations stable.
Missiles strike Israeli cities Arad and Dimona after defense failure
4 surges to 49%28%
On March 22, missiles struck Israeli cities Arad and Dimona after Israeli air defenses failed to intercept them. Iranian media claimed these strikes were in response to Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, highlighting the ongoing tit-for-tat strikes and regional escalation.
Hezbollah fires rockets into Israel, prompting retaliatory Israeli strikes on Jordanian border outposts
7 jumps to 39%11%
Hezbollah’s rocket fire led Israel to strike a Jordanian border outpost, marking a new country being hit and causing a sharp price increase toward the 7‑country outcome.
Israel Strikes Syrian Government Infrastructure in Southern Syria
4 surges to 44%23%
The Israeli military conducted airstrikes on Syrian army camps and command centers in southern Syria, citing retaliation for attacks on Druze civilians. This reinforced Syria's status as a struck country.
Israel hits Jordanian border outpost after Hezbollah rocket fire
9 rises to 9%1%
Israel launched an air‑strike on a Jordanian border outpost after Hezbollah rockets crossed the border, marking the first Israeli strike inside Jordan.
Israel conducts airstrikes on Syrian government targets after Druze attacks
4 rises to 6%2%
In response to attacks on Druze civilians in southern Syria, Israel launched airstrikes on Syrian military infrastructure, marking an expansion of Israeli strikes into Syrian territory amid the broader regional conflict.
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iraqi militia bases amid Iran war
5 jumps to 20%5%
Israel and the US conducted airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, killing several fighters and escalating the conflict into Iraqi territory, marking Iraq as another country struck by Israel in 2026.
Israeli airstrikes target Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon amid regional conflict
4 surges to 37%18%
On March 15, 2026, Israeli warplanes conducted a series of airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah military structures, including towns such as Zibdin, Hanin, Kfar, Aita al-Shaab, and Yater. This marked a significant escalation in the conflict, confirming Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil and impacting market expectations for the number of countries struck.
Israel executes over 7,600 strikes on Iran in 13 days
4 rises to 35%2%
By mid-March, Israel had conducted more than 7,600 strikes on Iranian targets, including nuclear and military sites, confirming the focus of Israeli strikes on Iranian soil. This high operational tempo supported market pricing favoring a lower number of countries struck, mainly Iran and Lebanon.
Israeli strike kills 12 medical workers in southern Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike targeted a health center run by Hezbollah's health arm in southern Lebanon, killing 12 medical workers. This marked one of the deadliest strikes in Lebanon since the war began, highlighting Israel's targeting of Hezbollah's civilian and military infrastructure. This event reinforced expectations of Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
Israel conducts over 7,600 strikes on Iran in 13 days
4 jumps to 41%7%
By March 13, Israel had executed more than 7,600 strikes on Iran, targeting nuclear and military sites. This intense campaign underscored Israel's focus on Iran but also suggested the possibility of strikes extending to other countries involved in the conflict, affecting market probabilities.
Israel says it has executed over 7,600 strikes on Iran in 13 days
4 surges to 61%16%
Israel announced it had carried out more than 7,600 strike sorties against Iran, intensifying the conflict and prompting speculation of further strikes on Iran’s regional allies, pushing the market back toward the highest‑probability outcome.
Iran‑backed Hezbollah fires 200 missiles and drones at Israel
4 jumps to 52%13%
Iran and Hezbollah launched a coordinated barrage of roughly 200 missiles and drones into Israel from Lebanese territory, raising expectations that Israel would retaliate against Lebanon and possibly other neighbouring states, nudging the market upward.
Iranian missile strikes hit Israeli cities Arad and Dimona
On March 22, Iranian missiles struck Israeli cities Arad and Dimona, indicating ongoing hostilities but no Israeli strikes on new countries. Israeli response remained focused on Iran, supporting the market's low count of countries struck by Israel.
Iranian missile strikes cause damage in Bahrain and other Gulf states
4 dips to 30%4%
Iran launched missile and drone strikes on Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE in retaliation, but there is no credible evidence Israel struck these countries. This regional escalation increased market uncertainty but did not shift expectations that Israel would strike multiple countries beyond Iran.
Hezbollah and Iran launch coordinated missile and drone attacks on Israel
4 jumps to 40%11%
On March 10-11, Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy, launched a massive coordinated missile and drone attack on Israel from Lebanon. Israel retaliated with strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs but did not conduct qualifying strikes on Lebanese soil, maintaining the market's focus on Iran as the only country struck by Israel.
Iranian drone strike damages building in Manama, Bahrain
4 jumps to 34%5%
On March 10, an Iranian drone strike caused damage in Manama, Bahrain, marking a strike on a country other than Iran or Israel. This event indicated the regional spread of the conflict and influenced market pricing toward Israel striking multiple countries, as Israel might respond to Iranian actions in Gulf states.
Israeli drone strike hits Manama, Bahrain, targeting military site
5 rises to 17%2%
On March 10, 2026, Israel conducted a drone strike in Manama, Bahrain, targeting alleged military infrastructure. This marked a strike on a country beyond Iran and Lebanon, influencing market expectations of the number of countries struck.
IDF confirms airstrikes on Iranian drone command headquarters
4 jumps to 34%14%
Israeli Defense Forces confirmed airstrikes targeting an IRGC Drone Command Headquarters in Iran, further degrading Iran's drone capabilities and reinforcing Israel's focus on Iranian military infrastructure during the conflict.
Israel strikes Syrian command centre after Druze attacks
8 rises to 8%1%
The Israeli Air Force bombed a command centre in southern Syria, its first acknowledged aerial strike on Syrian territory during the 2026 Iran‑War, adding a new country to the count.
Israeli airstrikes hit Iranian missile storage sites in Tehran
4 rises to 37%4%
Israeli air force conducted strikes targeting missile storage sites in Tehran, Iran, demonstrating Israel's continued focus on Iranian territory and military infrastructure. No reports indicated Israeli strikes on other countries' soil during this period.
IRGC claims missile and drone strikes on Israeli Defense Ministry and Ben Gurion Airport
5 jumps to 26%11%
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced missile and drone attacks on Israeli territory, heightening regional tensions and suggesting potential Israeli retaliatory strikes on multiple countries.
Israel launches a series of strikes on Syrian air bases from Lebanon
6 surges to 28%15%
Israel used drones and missiles launched from Lebanese territory to hit Syrian military installations, marking the first confirmed strike on a third country and pushing the market toward the highest country‑count outcomes.
Israel conducts over 1,600 strikes on Iran in four days
4 jumps to 34%7%
By March 4, Israel had conducted more than 1,600 strike sorties against Iran, focusing on missile and drone infrastructure. This demonstrated Israel's intense focus on Iranian territory and reinforced market confidence that Israel's strikes were concentrated in Iran rather than multiple countries.
Israeli Air Force conducts extensive airstrikes on Iran
4 jumps to 33%6%
The Israeli Air Force publicly released footage of F-16I jets flying to Iran and reported hundreds of sorties with over 5,000 bombs dropped during the conflict. This confirmed Israeli strikes on Iranian soil, significantly impacting market confidence in at least one foreign country being struck.
Israel conducts 1,600 strikes on Iran and Hezbollah in 4 days
4 jumps to 33%6%
By March 4, Israel had carried out 1,600 strike sorties against Iran and Hezbollah targets, demonstrating sustained military operations primarily focused on Iran and Lebanon. This reinforced market confidence that Israeli strikes would be concentrated in these two countries.
Israeli Forces Strike Iraqi Troops Near Secret Desert Outpost
4 jumps to 40%7%
To protect a clandestine military outpost in the western Iraqi desert, Israeli forces launched airstrikes against approaching Iraqi military regiments. This confirmed Iraq as another country struck by Israel.
Israel conducts over 1,600 strikes on Iran in four days
By March 4, Israel had conducted more than 1,600 strike sorties against Iran, focusing on missile and drone infrastructure. This confirmed Israel's operational focus on Iran and reinforced market expectations that strikes would be concentrated in one country.
Israel conducts drone strike on car in Yanouh, Lebanon, killing three including a child
5 drops to 23%8%
A drone strike in the Lebanese village of Yanouh killed three civilians, confirming another Israeli operation on Lebanese territory and reinforcing the market’s view that the count of struck countries remains low.
Israel launches airstrikes across Lebanon targeting Hezbollah
4 jumps to 40%11%
Following rocket and drone attacks from Lebanon, Israel initiated airstrikes on Hezbollah missile sites in southern Beirut, escalating the conflict and increasing expectations of strikes on multiple countries' soil.
Israel retaliates with airstrikes on Lebanon after Hezbollah rocket attacks
Following Hezbollah rocket attacks on Israel, Israeli forces conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, marking Israel's second country strike in 2026. This expanded the conflict geographically beyond Iran.
Israel escalates strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon
4 jumps to 37%13%
Following Iranian missile strikes on Israel, the Israel Defense Forces conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon, marking an expansion of Israeli strikes beyond Iran. This raised market expectations for Israel striking multiple countries, including Lebanon.
Israel strikes Hezbollah targets in Beirut after missile and drone attacks
4 jumps to 27%8%
Following missile and drone attacks by Hezbollah on Israel, Israeli forces conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut on March 2, 2026. This marked a significant Israeli strike on Lebanese soil, confirming Lebanon as one of the countries Israel struck in 2026.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on Israel and Gulf states
4 jumps to 33%6%
Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones targeting Israel and several Gulf countries including Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. These retaliatory strikes confirmed Israel's engagement with Iran and the regional scope of the conflict but did not indicate Israeli strikes on these countries.
Iran launches missiles and drones at five Gulf states in retaliation for Israeli‑US attacks
4 surges to 61%19%
Iran fired missiles and drones at several Gulf states – Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain – in retaliation for the Israeli‑US strikes. The market rallied sharply as the possibility of Israeli strikes on those countries’ territories grew.
Israel and US launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran
6 plunges to 4%43%
On February 28, 2026, Israel and the US began a joint military operation striking Iranian nuclear and military facilities, marking the start of intense Israeli airstrikes on Iran. This large-scale operation set the stage for the conflict and influenced market expectations that Israel's strikes would focus on Iran.
US and Israel Launch Coordinated Military Strikes on Targets Across Iran
4 jumps to 39%10%
The United States and Israel initiated Operation Epic Fury and Operation Roaring Lion, launching massive airstrikes against Iranian leadership, nuclear facilities, and military infrastructure, which officially expanded the list of struck countries.
Israel and US launch joint airstrikes on Iran, initiating 2026 Iran war
4 rises to 50%2%
On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States began coordinated airstrikes across Iran targeting military and nuclear facilities, marking the start of the 2026 Iran war. This major escalation set the stage for Israel's military actions in the region and influenced market expectations of strikes on Iran.
Israel and US launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran initiating 2026 Iran war
4 drops to 43%5%
On 28 February 2026, Israel and the United States launched extensive airstrikes across Iran targeting military and nuclear sites, marking the start of the 2026 Iran war. This operation set the stage for Israel's primary strike focus on Iranian territory throughout 2026.
US and Israel conduct joint military strikes on Iran
4 rises to 50%2%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iranian nuclear and military sites, marking the start of the 2026 Iran war. This event confirmed Israeli strikes on Iranian soil, directly impacting the market's assessment of the number of countries Israel would strike.
US and Israel launch joint military strikes on Iran
4 plunges to 28%20%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel began coordinated military strikes on Iran, initiating the 2026 Iran war. This large-scale operation involved missiles, drones, and fighter jets targeting Iranian military and nuclear facilities, setting the stage for extensive Israeli airstrikes in the region and influencing market expectations of Israeli strikes on multiple countries.
US and Israel begin joint air strikes on Iran, sparking regional war
4 plunges to 4%44%
The United States and Israel launched a joint air campaign against Iran, marking the start of the 2026 Iran‑Israel war. The market sharply fell as traders expected the conflict to stay largely confined to Iran and Israel, reducing the likelihood of strikes on third‑party states.
Israel and U.S. begin joint air strikes on Iran
7 rises to 7%2%
Israel and the United States launched coordinated air‑strike missions against targets inside Iran, marking the first Israeli strike on Iranian soil in 2026. The operation was publicly presented as “Operation Roaring Lion” by Israel and counted as a strike on a new foreign country.
Israel and US launch coordinated missile strikes on Iran
5 plunges to 15%32%
On 28 February 2026, Israel and the United States launched joint missile attacks on multiple locations in Iran, marking the start of Operation Roaring Lion and Operation Epic Fury. This significant military action against Iranian territory influenced market expectations about the number of countries Israel would strike.
US and Israel Launch Massive Joint Airstrikes on Iran
4 dips to 33%3%
The United States and Israel initiated Operation Epic Fury / Roaring Lion, launching hundreds of strikes across Iran. This marked the official entry of Iran as a directly struck country in 2026, causing major shifts in the market.
US and Israel launch coordinated military strikes on Iran
4 plunges to 28%20%
On February 27-28, 2026, the US and Israel initiated Operation Epic Fury, conducting extensive missile and drone strikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities. This marked the start of a large-scale Israeli air campaign focused on Iranian territory, setting the stage for the high volume of strikes reported in the following weeks.
U.S. President Trump expected to announce Board of Peace for Gaza
5 dips to 13%2%
Anticipation of a diplomatic breakthrough in Gaza reduced expectations of further cross‑border strikes, pulling the market down as traders saw less incentive for Israel to open new fronts.
Israel warns of imminent strikes on two villages in eastern Bekaa Valley
Israel’s Arabic‑language spokesman posted warnings that the military would strike two villages in the Bekaa Valley, signaling a likely upcoming operation on Lebanese soil and prompting market participants to lower expectations for higher country counts.
Israel Strikes Four Syria-Lebanon Border Crossings
4 rises to 37%4%
Israel launched airstrikes targeting four border crossings on the Syria-Lebanon border, alleging they were used by Hezbollah to smuggle weapons. This early action confirmed strikes on both Lebanese and Syrian territory.
Israel conducts drone strike on a Hamas ally in southern Lebanon
5 jumps to 15%8%
An Israeli drone killed three people, including a child, in the village of Yanouh, targeting a local official linked to Hamas. The incident suggested Israel might expand strikes to other neighboring states, lifting the market again.
Israel announces temporary ceasefire on Lebanon front after U.N. pressure
5 plunges to 7%21%
Following a U.N. resolution urging restraint, Israel halted major air operations in Lebanon for a week, causing the market to drop as the likelihood of new foreign strike targets fell.
Israel launches strikes in Gaza testing ceasefire, killing 24
Israel launched airstrikes against Hamas militants in Gaza, testing the ceasefire and killing at least 24 people. This continued military activity influenced market views on Israel's strike patterns and potential targets in 2026.
Israel strikes a Hezbollah‑run health centre in Burj Qalaouiyah, Lebanon
5 surges to 28%22%
A drone strike hit a Hezbollah‑affiliated medical facility, killing 12 health workers. Targeting civilian‑linked Hezbollah infrastructure heightened concerns of broader regional strikes, nudging prices upward again.
Experts warn of potential Israeli strikes on Iran in 2026
8 plunges to 2%48%
European diplomats and analysts indicated Israel might strike Iran again in 2026 if uranium enrichment activities resume, shaping market expectations about the number of countries Israel could target.
Israel launches new wave of air attacks on Lebanon, straining fragile truce
10 drops to 0%5%
Israel carried out multiple waves of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah special operations training compounds, maintaining near-daily pressure on the ceasefire.
Israel intensifies air attacks on Lebanon, straining fragile truce
6 dips to 3%2%
Israel launched a new wave of air attacks on Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, raising fears of expanded military campaign. This escalation increased the likelihood of strikes on Lebanese soil in 2026.
Israel approves $35 billion defense budget for 2026 despite ceasefire
7 plunges to 2%42%
Israel's cabinet approved a substantial defense budget increase for 2026, signaling continued military preparedness and potential for strikes beyond current ceasefire agreements. This budget approval affected market sentiment about the likelihood of multiple country strikes.
Israel launches airstrikes in Gaza amid ceasefire violations
4 drops to 10%8%
Israel launched airstrikes against Hamas militants in Gaza in response to ceasefire violations, killing multiple Palestinians. These strikes reinforced the ongoing conflict in Gaza, affecting market expectations for strikes in Palestinian territories.
Israel strikes southern Lebanon after first direct talks in decades
6 dips to 3%4%
Less than a day after holding direct civilian-envoy talks, Israel launched new airstrikes in southern Lebanon, citing ceasefire violations by Hezbollah.
Israeli weapons makers showcase new tech after two years of war
9 plunges to 4%42%
Israel revealed new military technologies including drones and laser defense systems, focusing on defense and surveillance rather than offensive strikes on multiple countries. This reinforced market expectations of limited Israeli strikes abroad in 2026.
Israel plans to deploy Iron Beam laser defense system by year-end
8 plunges to 2%48%
Israel announced deployment of the Iron Beam laser system to intercept missiles and drones, emphasizing defensive capabilities amid ongoing conflict but not indicating new offensive strikes on foreign soil. This contributed to market consensus of fewer Israeli strikes abroad.
U.S.‑brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon reduce immediate strike risk
5 dips to 6%4%
Direct diplomatic talks, mediated by the United States, were held in Beirut, leading both sides to pause large‑scale air operations. The market retreated sharply as traders expected fewer new foreign strike targets.
Israel conducts airstrike in southern Lebanon killing civilians
5 dips to 7%2%
An Israeli strike in the village of Habboush near Nabatiyeh killed six civilians, reinforcing the perception that Israel is expanding its campaign into Lebanon and further confirming Lebanon as a target country.
Israel kills 13 in Syria airstrikes following failed ground incursion
9 plunges to 5%41%
Israeli forces launched deadly airstrikes on the Syrian town of Beit Jinn after local residents resisted a ground military incursion, marking a significant escalation in Syria.
IDF announces reservist duty changes amid regional tensions
6 plunges to 3%44%
The IDF announced reservists would serve less but train more in 2026, reflecting a recalibration of military readiness amid ongoing tensions with neighbors including Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and Qatar. This influenced market expectations about Israel's military engagement scope.
Israel conducts airstrikes in southern Lebanon after first direct talks in decades
5 plunges to 7%40%
Israel launched airstrikes in southern Lebanon shortly after historic direct talks with Lebanon, signaling continued military pressure despite diplomatic efforts. This event affected market views on the number of countries Israel might strike, reinforcing Lebanon as a likely target.
Israel kills top Hezbollah official in first attack on Beirut in months
11 plunges to 6%41%
An Israeli airstrike in Beirut's southern suburbs killed Hezbollah's chief of staff, Haitham Ali al-Tabtabai, raising fears of a major escalation despite the ceasefire.
Israel kills top Hezbollah official in Beirut airstrike
6 dips to 5%2%
Israel conducted an airstrike in southern Beirut targeting a senior Hezbollah official, killing him despite a ceasefire. This action underscored Israel's willingness to strike Lebanese territory, influencing market pricing for strikes in Lebanon.
Israel strikes multiple sites in southern and eastern Lebanon, including Sidon
5 plunges to 9%38%
The Israeli Air Force hit a commercial building in Sidon and other locations in the Bekaa Valley, marking the first confirmed strike on Lebanese territory in the analysis window and adding Lebanon to the count of countries targeted.
Israeli airstrikes kill 33 in Gaza amid ceasefire tensions
4 plunges to 18%30%
Israeli airstrikes in Gaza killed 33 people, including civilians, marking a serious escalation since the ceasefire. This violence underscored ongoing conflict risks and influenced market expectations about Israel's military actions in 2026, particularly regarding strikes outside Gaza.
Israeli airstrike kills 13 in Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon
6 dips to 7%3%
An Israeli drone strike targeted a Hamas training compound in the Ein el-Hilweh refugee camp near Sidon, Lebanon, killing 13 people. This marked a significant escalation in Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil, impacting market expectations for strikes in Lebanon.
Israel Aerospace Industries delivers Arrow 3 missile system to Germany
6 plunges to 5%42%
Israel completed delivery of the Arrow 3 missile defense system to Germany ahead of schedule, highlighting Israel's focus on defense exports and missile defense rather than offensive strikes on multiple countries. This reinforced market expectations of limited Israeli strikes abroad.
Israel conducts large‑scale airstrikes on southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah sites
5 plunges to 10%37%
Israel launched dozens of drone and missile strikes on villages in southern Lebanon, killing at least ten people. The escalation raised fears of further strikes beyond Lebanon, pushing the market toward higher country‑count outcomes.
Israel warns US of potential Iranian missile strike disguised as drill
4 plunges to 18%30%
Israel issued warnings to the US about Iran possibly using a missile launch drill as cover for an actual strike, raising regional tensions but not indicating Israeli offensive strikes on multiple countries. This heightened alert contributed to market uncertainty but did not support expectations of many Israeli strikes abroad.
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