Traders assign a 92.5% probability against any new country joining the Abraham Accords by October 31 because the short window leaves little room for completed diplomatic agreements amid ongoing regional conditions. Saudi Arabia remains the most discussed potential signatory, yet Riyadh continues to condition normalization on a credible pathway toward Palestinian statehood, a stance reiterated in recent exchanges over a proposed U.S. civil nuclear cooperation agreement. No other major candidates have advanced to formal talks or met procedural thresholds in the past month, while earlier momentum from Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession has not produced follow-on commitments. The absence of imminent bilateral announcements or U.S.-brokered breakthroughs within the resolution period underpins the current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated8% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
8% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 92.5% probability against any new country joining the Abraham Accords by October 31 because the short window leaves little room for completed diplomatic agreements amid ongoing regional conditions. Saudi Arabia remains the most discussed potential signatory, yet Riyadh continues to condition normalization on a credible pathway toward Palestinian statehood, a stance reiterated in recent exchanges over a proposed U.S. civil nuclear cooperation agreement. No other major candidates have advanced to formal talks or met procedural thresholds in the past month, while earlier momentum from Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession has not produced follow-on commitments. The absence of imminent bilateral announcements or U.S.-brokered breakthroughs within the resolution period underpins the current market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
Volume
$794End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 92.5% probability against any new country joining the Abraham Accords by October 31 because the short window leaves little room for completed diplomatic agreements amid ongoing regional conditions. Saudi Arabia remains the most discussed potential signatory, yet Riyadh continues to condition normalization on a credible pathway toward Palestinian statehood, a stance reiterated in recent exchanges over a proposed U.S. civil nuclear cooperation agreement. No other major candidates have advanced to formal talks or met procedural thresholds in the past month, while earlier momentum from Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession has not produced follow-on commitments. The absence of imminent bilateral announcements or U.S.-brokered breakthroughs within the resolution period underpins the current market pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any country not already a part of the Abraham Accords formally signs a normalization agreement with Israel under the framework of the Abraham Accords by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
A formal signing refers to an official agreement between Israel and another country that is publicly acknowledged by both governments and clearly attributed to the Abraham Accords or their continuation. Such a signing will qualify regardless of whether a country had an established diplomatic relationship with Israel predating this event; their becoming a signatory of the Abraham Accords qualifies as normalizing relations under the framework of that agreement.
For the purposes of this market, Somaliland will count as a country.
Countries already part of the Abraham Accords as of market creation—including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan—will not count.
The resolution source will be official government statements, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$794End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 92.5% probability against any new country joining the Abraham Accords by October 31 because the short window leaves little room for completed diplomatic agreements amid ongoing regional conditions. Saudi Arabia remains the most discussed potential signatory, yet Riyadh continues to condition normalization on a credible pathway toward Palestinian statehood, a stance reiterated in recent exchanges over a proposed U.S. civil nuclear cooperation agreement. No other major candidates have advanced to formal talks or met procedural thresholds in the past month, while earlier momentum from Kazakhstan’s 2025 accession has not produced follow-on commitments. The absence of imminent bilateral announcements or U.S.-brokered breakthroughs within the resolution period underpins the current market pricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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