Ongoing military confrontations between Israel, the United States, and Iran—marked by direct strikes on nuclear and energy sites since February 2026—have produced only short-lived ceasefires and an interim June 2026 memorandum that collapsed in early July. Trader sentiment for a permanent bilateral peace deal remains constrained by unresolved core disputes over Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities, ballistic missile programs, and support for regional proxies, alongside Israeli demands for full dismantlement and withdrawal conditions in Lebanon and Gaza. Recent reports of planned U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and Iranian threats of retaliation against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz underscore the absence of durable de-escalation mechanisms. Any path to a comprehensive agreement would require verified compliance on nuclear limits, reopening of trade routes, and coordinated diplomatic pressure, none of which have advanced beyond preliminary talks mediated by third parties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIsrael x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
$12,174,976 Vol.
May 31, 2026
April 22
No
April 30
No
May 31
No
June 30
No
July 31
No
$12,174,976 Vol.
April 22
$156,667 Vol.
No
April 30
$157,948 Vol.
No
May 31
$2,700,982 Vol.
No
June 30
$8,533,781 Vol.
No
July 31
$625,598 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing military confrontations between Israel, the United States, and Iran—marked by direct strikes on nuclear and energy sites since February 2026—have produced only short-lived ceasefires and an interim June 2026 memorandum that collapsed in early July. Trader sentiment for a permanent bilateral peace deal remains constrained by unresolved core disputes over Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities, ballistic missile programs, and support for regional proxies, alongside Israeli demands for full dismantlement and withdrawal conditions in Lebanon and Gaza. Recent reports of planned U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and Iranian threats of retaliation against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz underscore the absence of durable de-escalation mechanisms. Any path to a comprehensive agreement would require verified compliance on nuclear limits, reopening of trade routes, and coordinated diplomatic pressure, none of which have advanced beyond preliminary talks mediated by third parties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Volume
$12,174,976End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing military confrontations between Israel, the United States, and Iran—marked by direct strikes on nuclear and energy sites since February 2026—have produced only short-lived ceasefires and an interim June 2026 memorandum that collapsed in early July. Trader sentiment for a permanent bilateral peace deal remains constrained by unresolved core disputes over Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities, ballistic missile programs, and support for regional proxies, alongside Israeli demands for full dismantlement and withdrawal conditions in Lebanon and Gaza. Recent reports of planned U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and Iranian threats of retaliation against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz underscore the absence of durable de-escalation mechanisms. Any path to a comprehensive agreement would require verified compliance on nuclear limits, reopening of trade routes, and coordinated diplomatic pressure, none of which have advanced beyond preliminary talks mediated by third parties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$12,174,976End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Ongoing military confrontations between Israel, the United States, and Iran—marked by direct strikes on nuclear and energy sites since February 2026—have produced only short-lived ceasefires and an interim June 2026 memorandum that collapsed in early July. Trader sentiment for a permanent bilateral peace deal remains constrained by unresolved core disputes over Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities, ballistic missile programs, and support for regional proxies, alongside Israeli demands for full dismantlement and withdrawal conditions in Lebanon and Gaza. Recent reports of planned U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and Iranian threats of retaliation against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz underscore the absence of durable de-escalation mechanisms. Any path to a comprehensive agreement would require verified compliance on nuclear limits, reopening of trade routes, and coordinated diplomatic pressure, none of which have advanced beyond preliminary talks mediated by third parties.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions