Trader consensus heavily favors no coup attempt in China before 2027, with "No" implying 96.4% probability, driven by Xi Jinping's unchallenged dominance over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army via ongoing anti-corruption purges. Recent sentencing of former defense ministers Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu to suspended death penalties for corruption—announced in early May 2026—highlights preemptive crackdowns quashing potential military dissent, as seen in prior 2026 dismissals of senior PLA generals amid nuclear leak probes. Absent verified leadership challenges or factional upheavals, these actions reinforce institutional stability. Realistic shifts could stem from economic collapse sparking elite defections, PLA operational failures in a Taiwan contingency, or Xi's sudden health crisis, though structural loyalty oaths and surveillance minimize such risks through 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$126,892 Vol.
$126,892 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$126,892 Vol.
$126,892 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no coup attempt in China before 2027, with "No" implying 96.4% probability, driven by Xi Jinping's unchallenged dominance over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army via ongoing anti-corruption purges. Recent sentencing of former defense ministers Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu to suspended death penalties for corruption—announced in early May 2026—highlights preemptive crackdowns quashing potential military dissent, as seen in prior 2026 dismissals of senior PLA generals amid nuclear leak probes. Absent verified leadership challenges or factional upheavals, these actions reinforce institutional stability. Realistic shifts could stem from economic collapse sparking elite defections, PLA operational failures in a Taiwan contingency, or Xi's sudden health crisis, though structural loyalty oaths and surveillance minimize such risks through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$126,892End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors no coup attempt in China before 2027, with "No" implying 96.4% probability, driven by Xi Jinping's unchallenged dominance over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army via ongoing anti-corruption purges. Recent sentencing of former defense ministers Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu to suspended death penalties for corruption—announced in early May 2026—highlights preemptive crackdowns quashing potential military dissent, as seen in prior 2026 dismissals of senior PLA generals amid nuclear leak probes. Absent verified leadership challenges or factional upheavals, these actions reinforce institutional stability. Realistic shifts could stem from economic collapse sparking elite defections, PLA operational failures in a Taiwan contingency, or Xi's sudden health crisis, though structural loyalty oaths and surveillance minimize such risks through 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$126,892End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no coup attempt in China before 2027, with "No" implying 96.4% probability, driven by Xi Jinping's unchallenged dominance over the Chinese Communist Party and People's Liberation Army via ongoing anti-corruption purges. Recent sentencing of former defense ministers Wei Fenghe and Li Shangfu to suspended death penalties for corruption—announced in early May 2026—highlights preemptive crackdowns quashing potential military dissent, as seen in prior 2026 dismissals of senior PLA generals amid nuclear leak probes. Absent verified leadership challenges or factional upheavals, these actions reinforce institutional stability. Realistic shifts could stem from economic collapse sparking elite defections, PLA operational failures in a Taiwan contingency, or Xi's sudden health crisis, though structural loyalty oaths and surveillance minimize such risks through 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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