Xi Jinping’s ongoing consolidation of authority through extensive military purges and loyalty-focused appointments has sustained tight centralized control within the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army, leaving no verified coordinated effort by state actors to seize power. Recent high-level removals, including senior Central Military Commission figures investigated for discipline violations, reflect internal anti-corruption and rectification campaigns rather than successful factional challenges, with state media and independent reporting showing continued Politburo alignment and absence of public instability signals into mid-2026. Traders assign “No” a 96% implied probability because the opaque system has absorbed prior rumors without producing the coordinated military or security force action required for market resolution. Late-breaking developments such as a sudden leadership health crisis, major economic shock, or unprecedented elite defection could still alter this trajectory before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$154,872 Vol.
$154,872 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
4% chance
$154,872 Vol.
$154,872 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s ongoing consolidation of authority through extensive military purges and loyalty-focused appointments has sustained tight centralized control within the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army, leaving no verified coordinated effort by state actors to seize power. Recent high-level removals, including senior Central Military Commission figures investigated for discipline violations, reflect internal anti-corruption and rectification campaigns rather than successful factional challenges, with state media and independent reporting showing continued Politburo alignment and absence of public instability signals into mid-2026. Traders assign “No” a 96% implied probability because the opaque system has absorbed prior rumors without producing the coordinated military or security force action required for market resolution. Late-breaking developments such as a sudden leadership health crisis, major economic shock, or unprecedented elite defection could still alter this trajectory before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$154,872End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Xi Jinping’s ongoing consolidation of authority through extensive military purges and loyalty-focused appointments has sustained tight centralized control within the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army, leaving no verified coordinated effort by state actors to seize power. Recent high-level removals, including senior Central Military Commission figures investigated for discipline violations, reflect internal anti-corruption and rectification campaigns rather than successful factional challenges, with state media and independent reporting showing continued Politburo alignment and absence of public instability signals into mid-2026. Traders assign “No” a 96% implied probability because the opaque system has absorbed prior rumors without producing the coordinated military or security force action required for market resolution. Late-breaking developments such as a sudden leadership health crisis, major economic shock, or unprecedented elite defection could still alter this trajectory before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in China at any point between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Chinese government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Chinese government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$154,872End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Xi Jinping’s ongoing consolidation of authority through extensive military purges and loyalty-focused appointments has sustained tight centralized control within the Chinese Communist Party and People’s Liberation Army, leaving no verified coordinated effort by state actors to seize power. Recent high-level removals, including senior Central Military Commission figures investigated for discipline violations, reflect internal anti-corruption and rectification campaigns rather than successful factional challenges, with state media and independent reporting showing continued Politburo alignment and absence of public instability signals into mid-2026. Traders assign “No” a 96% implied probability because the opaque system has absorbed prior rumors without producing the coordinated military or security force action required for market resolution. Late-breaking developments such as a sudden leadership health crisis, major economic shock, or unprecedented elite defection could still alter this trajectory before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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