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icon for Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?

Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?

icon for Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?

Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?

$419,428 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026
Polymarket

$419,428 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for North Korea

North Korea

$37,206 Vol.

1%

icon for Cuba

Cuba

$50,742 Vol.

1%

icon for Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia

$40,641 Vol.

2%

icon for Lebanon

Lebanon

$66,882 Vol.

1%

icon for Afghanistan

Afghanistan

$18,533 Vol.

1%

icon for Iraq

Iraq

$35,188 Vol.

1%

icon for Pakistan

Pakistan

$8,791 Vol.

1%

icon for Syria

Syria

$14,085 Vol.

2%

icon for Venezuela

Venezuela

$87,843 Vol.

<1%

icon for Tunisia

Tunisia

$2,677 Vol.

2%

icon for Kuwait

Kuwait

$1,951 Vol.

1%

icon for Qatar

Qatar

$6,934 Vol.

1%

icon for Indonesia

Indonesia

$17,435 Vol.

2%

icon for Malaysia

Malaysia

$25,650 Vol.

2%

icon for Bangladesh

Bangladesh

$4,871 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Diplomatic momentum for new Israeli recognitions remains limited ahead of the June 30 deadline, with trader focus centered on whether Saudi Arabia, Qatar, or other holdouts advance normalization talks tied to the Abraham Accords. President Trump’s late-May statements intensified pressure on several Muslim-majority states to recognize Israel as part of broader Iran-related diplomacy, though any such moves would require alignment on Palestinian issues and face domestic constraints. Ongoing settlement expansions in the West Bank and Gaza tensions continue to shape regional positions, while countries like Pakistan have explicitly ruled out recognition without a two-state resolution. Historical patterns show new recognitions occur infrequently and typically follow extended negotiations rather than rapid shifts.

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$419,428
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 2:05 PM ET
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Diplomatic momentum for new Israeli recognitions remains limited ahead of the June 30 deadline, with trader focus centered on whether Saudi Arabia, Qatar, or other holdouts advance normalization talks tied to the Abraham Accords. President Trump’s late-May statements intensified pressure on several Muslim-majority states to recognize Israel as part of broader Iran-related diplomacy, though any such moves would require alignment on Palestinian issues and face domestic constraints. Ongoing settlement expansions in the West Bank and Gaza tensions continue to shape regional positions, while countries like Pakistan have explicitly ruled out recognition without a two-state resolution. Historical patterns show new recognitions occur infrequently and typically follow extended negotiations rather than rapid shifts.

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$419,428
End Date
Jun 30, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 20, 2025, 2:05 PM ET
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Bangladesh" at 4%, followed by "Saudi Arabia" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 4¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 4% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" has generated $419.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 20, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" is "Bangladesh" at just 4%, with "Saudi Arabia" close behind at 2%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.