Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?

Name: Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?
Start: 2025-11-20T19:15:28.634Z
End: 2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z

Jun 30

Dec 31

Jun 30

Dec 31

$419,428 Vol.

Jun 30, 2026

North Korea

$37,206 Vol.

Cuba

$50,742 Vol.

Saudi Arabia

$40,641 Vol.

Lebanon

$66,882 Vol.

Afghanistan

$18,533 Vol.

Iraq

$35,188 Vol.

Pakistan

$8,791 Vol.

Syria

$14,085 Vol.

Venezuela

$87,843 Vol.

<1%

Tunisia

$2,677 Vol.

Kuwait

$1,951 Vol.

Qatar

$6,934 Vol.

Indonesia

$17,435 Vol.

Malaysia

$25,650 Vol.

Bangladesh

$4,871 Vol.

$419,428 Vol.

North Korea

$37,206 Vol.

Cuba

$50,742 Vol.

Saudi Arabia

$40,641 Vol.

Lebanon

$66,882 Vol.

Afghanistan

$18,533 Vol.

Iraq

$35,188 Vol.

Pakistan

$8,791 Vol.

Syria

$14,085 Vol.

Venezuela

$87,843 Vol.

<1%

Tunisia

$2,677 Vol.

Kuwait

$1,951 Vol.

Qatar

$6,934 Vol.

Indonesia

$17,435 Vol.

Malaysia

$25,650 Vol.

Bangladesh

$4,871 Vol.

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Israel as a state between November 20, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31?

20%

Will Belgium recognize Palestine before 2027?

28%

Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?

14%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Bangladesh" at 4%, followed by "Saudi Arabia" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 4¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 4% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" has generated $419.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 20, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" is "Bangladesh" at just 4%, with "Saudi Arabia" close behind at 2%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $419.4K traded on “Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 4¢ for "Bangladesh" in the "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 4% chance that "Bangladesh" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 4¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 96¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 30, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" market has an active community of 13 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Note on Middle East Markets

Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?

Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?

Rules

Market Context

Rules

Market Context

Related

Comments (13)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?"?

What are the current odds for "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?"?

How will "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" be resolved?

Can I follow "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?"?

What does a price of 4¢ for "Bangladesh" mean?

When does the "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?" market close?

What are traders saying about "Which countries will recognize Israel by June 30?"?

What is Polymarket?