Ongoing military confrontations between Israel, the United States, and Iran—marked by direct strikes on nuclear and energy sites since February 2026—have produced only short-lived ceasefires and an interim June 2026 memorandum that collapsed in early July. Trader sentiment for a permanent bilateral peace deal remains constrained by unresolved core disputes over Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities, ballistic missile programs, and support for regional proxies, alongside Israeli demands for full dismantlement and withdrawal conditions in Lebanon and Gaza. Recent reports of planned U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and Iranian threats of retaliation against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz underscore the absence of durable de-escalation mechanisms. Any path to a comprehensive agreement would require verified compliance on nuclear limits, reopening of trade routes, and coordinated diplomatic pressure, none of which have advanced beyond preliminary talks mediated by third parties.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertIsrael x Iran dauerhafter Friedensvertrag bis...?
Israel x Iran dauerhafter Friedensvertrag bis...?
$12,174,976 Vol.
31. Mai 2026
22. April
Nein
30. April
Nein
31. Mai
Nein
30. Juni
Nein
31. Juli
Nein
$12,174,976 Vol.
22. April
$156,667 Vol.
Nein
30. April
$157,948 Vol.
Nein
31. Mai
$2,700,982 Vol.
Nein
30. Juni
$8,533,781 Vol.
Nein
31. Juli
$625,598 Vol.
Nein
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing military confrontations between Israel, the United States, and Iran—marked by direct strikes on nuclear and energy sites since February 2026—have produced only short-lived ceasefires and an interim June 2026 memorandum that collapsed in early July. Trader sentiment for a permanent bilateral peace deal remains constrained by unresolved core disputes over Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities, ballistic missile programs, and support for regional proxies, alongside Israeli demands for full dismantlement and withdrawal conditions in Lebanon and Gaza. Recent reports of planned U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and Iranian threats of retaliation against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz underscore the absence of durable de-escalation mechanisms. Any path to a comprehensive agreement would require verified compliance on nuclear limits, reopening of trade routes, and coordinated diplomatic pressure, none of which have advanced beyond preliminary talks mediated by third parties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Volumen
$12,174,976Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing military confrontations between Israel, the United States, and Iran—marked by direct strikes on nuclear and energy sites since February 2026—have produced only short-lived ceasefires and an interim June 2026 memorandum that collapsed in early July. Trader sentiment for a permanent bilateral peace deal remains constrained by unresolved core disputes over Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities, ballistic missile programs, and support for regional proxies, alongside Israeli demands for full dismantlement and withdrawal conditions in Lebanon and Gaza. Recent reports of planned U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and Iranian threats of retaliation against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz underscore the absence of durable de-escalation mechanisms. Any path to a comprehensive agreement would require verified compliance on nuclear limits, reopening of trade routes, and coordinated diplomatic pressure, none of which have advanced beyond preliminary talks mediated by third parties.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Iran agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of a previously announced ceasefire agreement), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- Israel and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both Israel and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The inclusion of Israel and Iran in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Israel and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$12,174,976Enddatum
31. Mai 2026Markt eröffnet
Apr 16, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Ongoing military confrontations between Israel, the United States, and Iran—marked by direct strikes on nuclear and energy sites since February 2026—have produced only short-lived ceasefires and an interim June 2026 memorandum that collapsed in early July. Trader sentiment for a permanent bilateral peace deal remains constrained by unresolved core disputes over Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities, ballistic missile programs, and support for regional proxies, alongside Israeli demands for full dismantlement and withdrawal conditions in Lebanon and Gaza. Recent reports of planned U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and Iranian threats of retaliation against shipping in the Strait of Hormuz underscore the absence of durable de-escalation mechanisms. Any path to a comprehensive agreement would require verified compliance on nuclear limits, reopening of trade routes, and coordinated diplomatic pressure, none of which have advanced beyond preliminary talks mediated by third parties.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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