Recent diplomatic progress, including the June 14 memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States on a ceasefire extension and Strait of Hormuz reopening, has reinforced regime cohesion under IRGC leadership following the February 2026 conflict and Supreme Leader succession process. Internal factional tensions and earlier protest waves from late 2025 into early 2026 have not escalated into coordinated military challenges, while the regime maintains control amid post-war recovery and negotiations. With only two weeks remaining until the June 30 resolution deadline, traders assign 98.4% probability to "No" based on the absence of verifiable coup signals. Limited windows for disruption could still arise from sudden elite fractures, renewed mass demonstrations, or rapid shifts in external pressure.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$1,786,981 Vol.
$1,786,981 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Ja
$1,786,981 Vol.
$1,786,981 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic progress, including the June 14 memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States on a ceasefire extension and Strait of Hormuz reopening, has reinforced regime cohesion under IRGC leadership following the February 2026 conflict and Supreme Leader succession process. Internal factional tensions and earlier protest waves from late 2025 into early 2026 have not escalated into coordinated military challenges, while the regime maintains control amid post-war recovery and negotiations. With only two weeks remaining until the June 30 resolution deadline, traders assign 98.4% probability to "No" based on the absence of verifiable coup signals. Limited windows for disruption could still arise from sudden elite fractures, renewed mass demonstrations, or rapid shifts in external pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$1,786,981Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent diplomatic progress, including the June 14 memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States on a ceasefire extension and Strait of Hormuz reopening, has reinforced regime cohesion under IRGC leadership following the February 2026 conflict and Supreme Leader succession process. Internal factional tensions and earlier protest waves from late 2025 into early 2026 have not escalated into coordinated military challenges, while the regime maintains control amid post-war recovery and negotiations. With only two weeks remaining until the June 30 resolution deadline, traders assign 98.4% probability to "No" based on the absence of verifiable coup signals. Limited windows for disruption could still arise from sudden elite fractures, renewed mass demonstrations, or rapid shifts in external pressure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,786,990Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic progress, including the June 14 memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States on a ceasefire extension and Strait of Hormuz reopening, has reinforced regime cohesion under IRGC leadership following the February 2026 conflict and Supreme Leader succession process. Internal factional tensions and earlier protest waves from late 2025 into early 2026 have not escalated into coordinated military challenges, while the regime maintains control amid post-war recovery and negotiations. With only two weeks remaining until the June 30 resolution deadline, traders assign 98.4% probability to "No" based on the absence of verifiable coup signals. Limited windows for disruption could still arise from sudden elite fractures, renewed mass demonstrations, or rapid shifts in external pressure.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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