Ongoing US-Israel military operations against Iran since February 2026, combined with the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, have heightened regime instability and fueled trader focus on potential internal challenges. IRGC factions exert significant influence amid ceasefire violations, disputes over Strait of Hormuz access, and continued protests met with executions and arrests through July 2026. These pressures, alongside economic strain and diplomatic negotiations, underpin the market's modest implied probabilities for a coup attempt by year-end, reflecting trader assessments of factional tensions and external leverage without confirmed plots. Scheduled diplomatic talks and any escalation in hostilities remain key near-term variables.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert$2,115,011 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
31. Dezember
12%
$2,115,011 Vol.
31. Dezember
$73,785 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Israel military operations against Iran since February 2026, combined with the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, have heightened regime instability and fueled trader focus on potential internal challenges. IRGC factions exert significant influence amid ceasefire violations, disputes over Strait of Hormuz access, and continued protests met with executions and arrests through July 2026. These pressures, alongside economic strain and diplomatic negotiations, underpin the market's modest implied probabilities for a coup attempt by year-end, reflecting trader assessments of factional tensions and external leverage without confirmed plots. Scheduled diplomatic talks and any escalation in hostilities remain key near-term variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volumen
$2,115,011Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Israel military operations against Iran since February 2026, combined with the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, have heightened regime instability and fueled trader focus on potential internal challenges. IRGC factions exert significant influence amid ceasefire violations, disputes over Strait of Hormuz access, and continued protests met with executions and arrests through July 2026. These pressures, alongside economic strain and diplomatic negotiations, underpin the market's modest implied probabilities for a coup attempt by year-end, reflecting trader assessments of factional tensions and external leverage without confirmed plots. Scheduled diplomatic talks and any escalation in hostilities remain key near-term variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$2,115,011Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Israel military operations against Iran since February 2026, combined with the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the subsequent leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, have heightened regime instability and fueled trader focus on potential internal challenges. IRGC factions exert significant influence amid ceasefire violations, disputes over Strait of Hormuz access, and continued protests met with executions and arrests through July 2026. These pressures, alongside economic strain and diplomatic negotiations, underpin the market's modest implied probabilities for a coup attempt by year-end, reflecting trader assessments of factional tensions and external leverage without confirmed plots. Scheduled diplomatic talks and any escalation in hostilities remain key near-term variables.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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