The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei underpins the 98.5% trader consensus against a coup attempt by June 30. Rapid leadership succession to Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC-aligned figures like Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, combined with intensified domestic repression including mass arrests and executions amid wartime conditions, has limited visible elite fractures or organized opposition momentum. Recent calibrated military actions, such as the June 8 drone incident downing a U.S. helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, and the June 14 memorandum of understanding set for signing on June 19 reflect a focus on external negotiations over internal upheaval. While a sudden collapse in the emerging diplomatic track or coordinated protests could theoretically create openings before the deadline, the regime's security apparatus and current trajectory toward de-escalation make such shifts improbable in the narrow window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$1,787,838 Vol.
$1,787,838 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Ja
$1,787,838 Vol.
$1,787,838 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei underpins the 98.5% trader consensus against a coup attempt by June 30. Rapid leadership succession to Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC-aligned figures like Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, combined with intensified domestic repression including mass arrests and executions amid wartime conditions, has limited visible elite fractures or organized opposition momentum. Recent calibrated military actions, such as the June 8 drone incident downing a U.S. helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, and the June 14 memorandum of understanding set for signing on June 19 reflect a focus on external negotiations over internal upheaval. While a sudden collapse in the emerging diplomatic track or coordinated protests could theoretically create openings before the deadline, the regime's security apparatus and current trajectory toward de-escalation make such shifts improbable in the narrow window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$1,787,838Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei underpins the 98.5% trader consensus against a coup attempt by June 30. Rapid leadership succession to Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC-aligned figures like Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, combined with intensified domestic repression including mass arrests and executions amid wartime conditions, has limited visible elite fractures or organized opposition momentum. Recent calibrated military actions, such as the June 8 drone incident downing a U.S. helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, and the June 14 memorandum of understanding set for signing on June 19 reflect a focus on external negotiations over internal upheaval. While a sudden collapse in the emerging diplomatic track or coordinated protests could theoretically create openings before the deadline, the regime's security apparatus and current trajectory toward de-escalation make such shifts improbable in the narrow window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,787,838Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime's demonstrated resilience following the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei underpins the 98.5% trader consensus against a coup attempt by June 30. Rapid leadership succession to Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC-aligned figures like Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, combined with intensified domestic repression including mass arrests and executions amid wartime conditions, has limited visible elite fractures or organized opposition momentum. Recent calibrated military actions, such as the June 8 drone incident downing a U.S. helicopter near the Strait of Hormuz, and the June 14 memorandum of understanding set for signing on June 19 reflect a focus on external negotiations over internal upheaval. While a sudden collapse in the emerging diplomatic track or coordinated protests could theoretically create openings before the deadline, the regime's security apparatus and current trajectory toward de-escalation make such shifts improbable in the narrow window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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