The Islamic Republic's leadership transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination has consolidated under Mojtaba Khamenei, with the IRGC and senior officials pledging allegiance by early March. This stability, reinforced by security force deployments during earlier protests and the shift to U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks culminating in a June 14 memorandum of understanding, leaves little room for a successful coup attempt before June 30. Traders price the "No" outcome near certainty because the regime's command structure shows no verified internal fractures capable of rapid overthrow, and external diplomatic focus has reduced immediate domestic upheaval risks. A factional IRGC split, leadership health event, or sudden protest surge tied to negotiation setbacks could still shift probabilities, though such developments lack supporting indicators in the current two-week window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$1,784,292 Vol.
$1,784,292 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Ja
$1,784,292 Vol.
$1,784,292 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Islamic Republic's leadership transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination has consolidated under Mojtaba Khamenei, with the IRGC and senior officials pledging allegiance by early March. This stability, reinforced by security force deployments during earlier protests and the shift to U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks culminating in a June 14 memorandum of understanding, leaves little room for a successful coup attempt before June 30. Traders price the "No" outcome near certainty because the regime's command structure shows no verified internal fractures capable of rapid overthrow, and external diplomatic focus has reduced immediate domestic upheaval risks. A factional IRGC split, leadership health event, or sudden protest surge tied to negotiation setbacks could still shift probabilities, though such developments lack supporting indicators in the current two-week window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$1,784,292Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The Islamic Republic's leadership transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination has consolidated under Mojtaba Khamenei, with the IRGC and senior officials pledging allegiance by early March. This stability, reinforced by security force deployments during earlier protests and the shift to U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks culminating in a June 14 memorandum of understanding, leaves little room for a successful coup attempt before June 30. Traders price the "No" outcome near certainty because the regime's command structure shows no verified internal fractures capable of rapid overthrow, and external diplomatic focus has reduced immediate domestic upheaval risks. A factional IRGC split, leadership health event, or sudden protest surge tied to negotiation setbacks could still shift probabilities, though such developments lack supporting indicators in the current two-week window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,784,292Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Islamic Republic's leadership transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's February 2026 assassination has consolidated under Mojtaba Khamenei, with the IRGC and senior officials pledging allegiance by early March. This stability, reinforced by security force deployments during earlier protests and the shift to U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks culminating in a June 14 memorandum of understanding, leaves little room for a successful coup attempt before June 30. Traders price the "No" outcome near certainty because the regime's command structure shows no verified internal fractures capable of rapid overthrow, and external diplomatic focus has reduced immediate domestic upheaval risks. A factional IRGC split, leadership health event, or sudden protest surge tied to negotiation setbacks could still shift probabilities, though such developments lack supporting indicators in the current two-week window.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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