Traders assign a 98.4% probability against an Iranian coup attempt by June 30 due to the regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict that began in February. The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei triggered an orderly interim leadership council and transition process toward Mojtaba Khamenei, with IRGC elements under commanders like Ahmad Vahidi consolidating influence amid internal factional jockeying. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, including a June 14 memorandum of understanding for a 60-day ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening, have shifted focus to diplomacy rather than domestic upheaval. Earlier 2026 rumors of attempts by figures like Hassan Rouhani failed to materialize into sustained challenges. With only two weeks remaining and no verified recent plots or mass unrest reported, the market reflects the absence of credible catalysts for a rapid overthrow effort before the resolution window closes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$1,786,981 Vol.
$1,786,981 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Ja
$1,786,981 Vol.
$1,786,981 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 98.4% probability against an Iranian coup attempt by June 30 due to the regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict that began in February. The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei triggered an orderly interim leadership council and transition process toward Mojtaba Khamenei, with IRGC elements under commanders like Ahmad Vahidi consolidating influence amid internal factional jockeying. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, including a June 14 memorandum of understanding for a 60-day ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening, have shifted focus to diplomacy rather than domestic upheaval. Earlier 2026 rumors of attempts by figures like Hassan Rouhani failed to materialize into sustained challenges. With only two weeks remaining and no verified recent plots or mass unrest reported, the market reflects the absence of credible catalysts for a rapid overthrow effort before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Volumen
$1,786,981Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 98.4% probability against an Iranian coup attempt by June 30 due to the regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict that began in February. The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei triggered an orderly interim leadership council and transition process toward Mojtaba Khamenei, with IRGC elements under commanders like Ahmad Vahidi consolidating influence amid internal factional jockeying. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, including a June 14 memorandum of understanding for a 60-day ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening, have shifted focus to diplomacy rather than domestic upheaval. Earlier 2026 rumors of attempts by figures like Hassan Rouhani failed to materialize into sustained challenges. With only two weeks remaining and no verified recent plots or mass unrest reported, the market reflects the absence of credible catalysts for a rapid overthrow effort before the resolution window closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$1,786,981Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 98.4% probability against an Iranian coup attempt by June 30 due to the regime's demonstrated resilience following the 2026 U.S.-Israel conflict that began in February. The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei triggered an orderly interim leadership council and transition process toward Mojtaba Khamenei, with IRGC elements under commanders like Ahmad Vahidi consolidating influence amid internal factional jockeying. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations, including a June 14 memorandum of understanding for a 60-day ceasefire and Strait of Hormuz reopening, have shifted focus to diplomacy rather than domestic upheaval. Earlier 2026 rumors of attempts by figures like Hassan Rouhani failed to materialize into sustained challenges. With only two weeks remaining and no verified recent plots or mass unrest reported, the market reflects the absence of credible catalysts for a rapid overthrow effort before the resolution window closes.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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