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icon for Israel x Hisbollah dauerhafter Friedensvertrag bis...?
Geopolitik·Iran

Israel x Hisbollah dauerhafter Friedensvertrag bis...?

icon for Israel x Hisbollah dauerhafter Friedensvertrag bis...?
Geopolitik·Iran

Israel x Hisbollah dauerhafter Friedensvertrag bis...?

$9,986,534 Vol.

31. Mai 2026
Polymarket

$9,986,534 Vol.

Polymarket

26. April

$77,082 Vol.

Nein

31. Mai

$1,631,784 Vol.

Nein

15. Juni

$3,245,622 Vol.

Nein

30. Juni

$3,796,433 Vol.

Nein

31. Juli

$1,235,612 Vol.

Nein

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s July 22, 2026, White House meeting with President Trump marked the clearest recent diplomatic signal, with Aoun pledging to end all hostilities with Israel “forever” and disarm Hezbollah as part of efforts toward a permanent agreement. U.S.-facilitated talks, building on the March-April 2026 ceasefire understanding between Israel and Lebanon, focus on mutual recognition of sovereignty, border security arrangements, and withdrawal of non-state armed groups. These negotiations remain tied to broader U.S.-Iran diplomacy, where Tehran has linked Lebanese outcomes to any wider regional memorandum. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing verification of Hezbollah disarmament commitments and the durability of the existing ceasefire amid historical precedent for fragile border truces.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.

A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:

- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.

- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.

The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$9,986,534
Enddatum
31. Mai 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s July 22, 2026, White House meeting with President Trump marked the clearest recent diplomatic signal, with Aoun pledging to end all hostilities with Israel “forever” and disarm Hezbollah as part of efforts toward a permanent agreement. U.S.-facilitated talks, building on the March-April 2026 ceasefire understanding between Israel and Lebanon, focus on mutual recognition of sovereignty, border security arrangements, and withdrawal of non-state armed groups. These negotiations remain tied to broader U.S.-Iran diplomacy, where Tehran has linked Lebanese outcomes to any wider regional memorandum. Trader sentiment reflects ongoing verification of Hezbollah disarmament commitments and the durability of the existing ceasefire amid historical precedent for fragile border truces.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify.

A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:

- Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.

- Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.

The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$9,986,534
Enddatum
31. Mai 2026
Markt eröffnet
Apr 16, 2026, 7:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel and Hezbollah agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the 10-day ceasefire agreement announced on April 16, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - Israel and Hezbollah each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both Israel and Hezbollah provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The inclusion of Israel and Hezbollah in a qualifying peace deal between multiple parties will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel and Hezbollah; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein

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Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Israel x Hisbollah dauerhafter Friedensvertrag bis...?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 5 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „26. April" mit 0%, gefolgt von „31. Mai" mit 0%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 0¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 0% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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