Iran's ruling institutions have demonstrated continuity and cohesion since the February 2026 leadership transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, with Mojtaba Khamenei installed and IRGC-aligned structures retaining control amid the April ceasefire. Security forces have managed earlier protests without widespread defections, while recent diplomatic activity centers on nuclear and Strait of Hormuz talks rather than internal power struggles. This backdrop underpins trader consensus at 97.5% against a coup attempt by June 30. Late-stage elite fractures, renewed nationwide unrest, or abrupt external shocks remain the primary variables that could still shift the narrow remaining window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$1,555,287 Объем
$1,555,287 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$1,555,287 Объем
$1,555,287 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's ruling institutions have demonstrated continuity and cohesion since the February 2026 leadership transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, with Mojtaba Khamenei installed and IRGC-aligned structures retaining control amid the April ceasefire. Security forces have managed earlier protests without widespread defections, while recent diplomatic activity centers on nuclear and Strait of Hormuz talks rather than internal power struggles. This backdrop underpins trader consensus at 97.5% against a coup attempt by June 30. Late-stage elite fractures, renewed nationwide unrest, or abrupt external shocks remain the primary variables that could still shift the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Объем
$1,555,287Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's ruling institutions have demonstrated continuity and cohesion since the February 2026 leadership transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, with Mojtaba Khamenei installed and IRGC-aligned structures retaining control amid the April ceasefire. Security forces have managed earlier protests without widespread defections, while recent diplomatic activity centers on nuclear and Strait of Hormuz talks rather than internal power struggles. This backdrop underpins trader consensus at 97.5% against a coup attempt by June 30. Late-stage elite fractures, renewed nationwide unrest, or abrupt external shocks remain the primary variables that could still shift the narrow remaining window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,557,121Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's ruling institutions have demonstrated continuity and cohesion since the February 2026 leadership transition following Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death, with Mojtaba Khamenei installed and IRGC-aligned structures retaining control amid the April ceasefire. Security forces have managed earlier protests without widespread defections, while recent diplomatic activity centers on nuclear and Strait of Hormuz talks rather than internal power struggles. This backdrop underpins trader consensus at 97.5% against a coup attempt by June 30. Late-stage elite fractures, renewed nationwide unrest, or abrupt external shocks remain the primary variables that could still shift the narrow remaining window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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