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icon for Спроба перевороту в Ірані до 30 червня?

Спроба перевороту в Ірані до 30 червня?

icon for Спроба перевороту в Ірані до 30 червня?

Спроба перевороту в Ірані до 30 червня?

Так

3% шанс
Polymarket

$1,558,651 Обс.

Так

3% шанс
Polymarket

$1,558,651 Обс.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's ruling institutions have demonstrated continuity following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted a swift constitutional succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, with IRGC and senior officials pledging allegiance. Security forces contained earlier protests through arrests and crackdowns without producing defections or breakdowns in command structures. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations over nuclear issues, sanctions, and the Strait of Hormuz, alongside a fragile April ceasefire, reflect elite focus on diplomacy rather than internal power struggles that could precipitate a coup attempt. The narrow three-week window to June 30 further reinforces trader consensus against near-term disruption. Sudden elite fractures, renewed nationwide demonstrations, or major military escalation remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before the deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.

Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$1,558,651
Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's ruling institutions have demonstrated continuity following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted a swift constitutional succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, with IRGC and senior officials pledging allegiance. Security forces contained earlier protests through arrests and crackdowns without producing defections or breakdowns in command structures. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations over nuclear issues, sanctions, and the Strait of Hormuz, alongside a fragile April ceasefire, reflect elite focus on diplomacy rather than internal power struggles that could precipitate a coup attempt. The narrow three-week window to June 30 further reinforces trader consensus against near-term disruption. Sudden elite fractures, renewed nationwide demonstrations, or major military escalation remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before the deadline.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.

Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$1,558,651
Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026
Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify. Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Спроба перевороту в Ірані до 30 червня?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 2 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «Спроба перевороту в Ірані до 30 червня?» з 3%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Спроба перевороту в Ірані до 30 червня?» згенерував $1.6 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Jan 6, 2026. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Спроба перевороту в Ірані до 30 червня?», перегляньте 2 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Це відкритий ринок. Поточний лідер для «Спроба перевороту в Ірані до 30 червня?» — «Спроба перевороту в Ірані до 30 червня?» лише з 3%. Жоден результат не має впевненої більшості — трейдери вважають це дуже невизначеним.

Правила вирішення для «Спроба перевороту в Ірані до 30 червня?» точно визначають, що має статися для оголошення переможця — включаючи офіційні джерела даних. Ви можете переглянути повні критерії вирішення в розділі «Правила» на цій сторінці. Рекомендуємо уважно прочитати правила перед торгівлею.