Iran’s political landscape features intense factional divisions between hardline elements favoring military escalation against the US and more pragmatic officials seeking negotiations, amplified by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s prolonged public absence since his March 2026 appointment following his father’s death. Hardliners, including Paydari Front lawmakers, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and associates of a “soft coup” or political coup by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining parliament, and bypassing supreme leader directives on issues like nuclear talks. Recent reports from mid-September 2026 detail rogue hardline actions, such as unauthorized attacks on commercial vessels, that derailed truce efforts and strengthened escalation advocates. These power struggles, set against ongoing US-Iran exchanges of strikes and economic pressures, form the core context for trader assessments of any coup-related outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran coup attempt by...?
Iran coup attempt by...?
$2,132,994 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
9%
$2,132,994 Vol.
December 31
$91,768 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s political landscape features intense factional divisions between hardline elements favoring military escalation against the US and more pragmatic officials seeking negotiations, amplified by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s prolonged public absence since his March 2026 appointment following his father’s death. Hardliners, including Paydari Front lawmakers, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and associates of a “soft coup” or political coup by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining parliament, and bypassing supreme leader directives on issues like nuclear talks. Recent reports from mid-September 2026 detail rogue hardline actions, such as unauthorized attacks on commercial vessels, that derailed truce efforts and strengthened escalation advocates. These power struggles, set against ongoing US-Iran exchanges of strikes and economic pressures, form the core context for trader assessments of any coup-related outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,132,994End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s political landscape features intense factional divisions between hardline elements favoring military escalation against the US and more pragmatic officials seeking negotiations, amplified by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s prolonged public absence since his March 2026 appointment following his father’s death. Hardliners, including Paydari Front lawmakers, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and associates of a “soft coup” or political coup by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining parliament, and bypassing supreme leader directives on issues like nuclear talks. Recent reports from mid-September 2026 detail rogue hardline actions, such as unauthorized attacks on commercial vessels, that derailed truce efforts and strengthened escalation advocates. These power struggles, set against ongoing US-Iran exchanges of strikes and economic pressures, form the core context for trader assessments of any coup-related outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,132,994End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s political landscape features intense factional divisions between hardline elements favoring military escalation against the US and more pragmatic officials seeking negotiations, amplified by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s prolonged public absence since his March 2026 appointment following his father’s death. Hardliners, including Paydari Front lawmakers, have publicly accused President Masoud Pezeshkian, Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and associates of a “soft coup” or political coup by elevating the Supreme National Security Council, sidelining parliament, and bypassing supreme leader directives on issues like nuclear talks. Recent reports from mid-September 2026 detail rogue hardline actions, such as unauthorized attacks on commercial vessels, that derailed truce efforts and strengthened escalation advocates. These power struggles, set against ongoing US-Iran exchanges of strikes and economic pressures, form the core context for trader assessments of any coup-related outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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