Iran’s political institutions have shown continuity under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and March succession, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintaining unified command and no verified large-scale defections or elite fractures. Security forces have contained protest activity despite economic pressures, while recent calibrated strikes and ongoing diplomatic negotiations through early June have not produced the sudden leadership vacuum or internal security shifts needed for a coup attempt. Traders reflect this structural resilience in the 97% “No” consensus, viewing a successful effort by the tight June 30 deadline as improbable absent abrupt external escalation or coordinated internal fractures.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$1,659,561 Объем
$1,659,561 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$1,659,561 Объем
$1,659,561 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s political institutions have shown continuity under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and March succession, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintaining unified command and no verified large-scale defections or elite fractures. Security forces have contained protest activity despite economic pressures, while recent calibrated strikes and ongoing diplomatic negotiations through early June have not produced the sudden leadership vacuum or internal security shifts needed for a coup attempt. Traders reflect this structural resilience in the 97% “No” consensus, viewing a successful effort by the tight June 30 deadline as improbable absent abrupt external escalation or coordinated internal fractures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Объем
$1,659,561Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s political institutions have shown continuity under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and March succession, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintaining unified command and no verified large-scale defections or elite fractures. Security forces have contained protest activity despite economic pressures, while recent calibrated strikes and ongoing diplomatic negotiations through early June have not produced the sudden leadership vacuum or internal security shifts needed for a coup attempt. Traders reflect this structural resilience in the 97% “No” consensus, viewing a successful effort by the tight June 30 deadline as improbable absent abrupt external escalation or coordinated internal fractures.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,659,771Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s political institutions have shown continuity under Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes and March succession, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps maintaining unified command and no verified large-scale defections or elite fractures. Security forces have contained protest activity despite economic pressures, while recent calibrated strikes and ongoing diplomatic negotiations through early June have not produced the sudden leadership vacuum or internal security shifts needed for a coup attempt. Traders reflect this structural resilience in the 97% “No” consensus, viewing a successful effort by the tight June 30 deadline as improbable absent abrupt external escalation or coordinated internal fractures.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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