Iran's ruling institutions have demonstrated continuity following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted a swift constitutional succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, with IRGC and senior officials pledging allegiance. Security forces contained earlier protests through arrests and crackdowns without producing defections or breakdowns in command structures. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations over nuclear issues, sanctions, and the Strait of Hormuz, alongside a fragile April ceasefire, reflect elite focus on diplomacy rather than internal power struggles that could precipitate a coup attempt. The narrow three-week window to June 30 further reinforces trader consensus against near-term disruption. Sudden elite fractures, renewed nationwide demonstrations, or major military escalation remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоТак
$1,558,651 Обс.
$1,558,651 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
Так
$1,558,651 Обс.
$1,558,651 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's ruling institutions have demonstrated continuity following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted a swift constitutional succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, with IRGC and senior officials pledging allegiance. Security forces contained earlier protests through arrests and crackdowns without producing defections or breakdowns in command structures. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations over nuclear issues, sanctions, and the Strait of Hormuz, alongside a fragile April ceasefire, reflect elite focus on diplomacy rather than internal power struggles that could precipitate a coup attempt. The narrow three-week window to June 30 further reinforces trader consensus against near-term disruption. Sudden elite fractures, renewed nationwide demonstrations, or major military escalation remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,558,651Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's ruling institutions have demonstrated continuity following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted a swift constitutional succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, with IRGC and senior officials pledging allegiance. Security forces contained earlier protests through arrests and crackdowns without producing defections or breakdowns in command structures. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations over nuclear issues, sanctions, and the Strait of Hormuz, alongside a fragile April ceasefire, reflect elite focus on diplomacy rather than internal power struggles that could precipitate a coup attempt. The narrow three-week window to June 30 further reinforces trader consensus against near-term disruption. Sudden elite fractures, renewed nationwide demonstrations, or major military escalation remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$1,558,651Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's ruling institutions have demonstrated continuity following the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli strikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted a swift constitutional succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, with IRGC and senior officials pledging allegiance. Security forces contained earlier protests through arrests and crackdowns without producing defections or breakdowns in command structures. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations over nuclear issues, sanctions, and the Strait of Hormuz, alongside a fragile April ceasefire, reflect elite focus on diplomacy rather than internal power struggles that could precipitate a coup attempt. The narrow three-week window to June 30 further reinforces trader consensus against near-term disruption. Sudden elite fractures, renewed nationwide demonstrations, or major military escalation remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання