Iran’s Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience following the February–March 2026 conflict and the rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader, with security forces and the IRGC maintaining control amid protests and economic strain. Traders price a coup attempt by June 30 at just 3.2 percent because no verified factional split or coordinated military challenge has emerged in recent months, consistent with the regime’s historical capacity to suppress dissent through appointments, surveillance, and force. While internal divisions between hard-liners and moderates persist and post-war economic pressures continue, these factors have not produced the coordinated action needed for an attempt within the narrow remaining window. Late developments such as large-scale defections or sudden leadership vacuums could theoretically alter the outlook, though current evidence points to continuity through the end of June.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডহ্যাঁ
$1,587,880 Vol.
$1,587,880 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
হ্যাঁ
$1,587,880 Vol.
$1,587,880 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience following the February–March 2026 conflict and the rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader, with security forces and the IRGC maintaining control amid protests and economic strain. Traders price a coup attempt by June 30 at just 3.2 percent because no verified factional split or coordinated military challenge has emerged in recent months, consistent with the regime’s historical capacity to suppress dissent through appointments, surveillance, and force. While internal divisions between hard-liners and moderates persist and post-war economic pressures continue, these factors have not produced the coordinated action needed for an attempt within the narrow remaining window. Late developments such as large-scale defections or sudden leadership vacuums could theoretically alter the outlook, though current evidence points to continuity through the end of June.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
ভলিউম
$1,587,880শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience following the February–March 2026 conflict and the rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader, with security forces and the IRGC maintaining control amid protests and economic strain. Traders price a coup attempt by June 30 at just 3.2 percent because no verified factional split or coordinated military challenge has emerged in recent months, consistent with the regime’s historical capacity to suppress dissent through appointments, surveillance, and force. While internal divisions between hard-liners and moderates persist and post-war economic pressures continue, these factors have not produced the coordinated action needed for an attempt within the narrow remaining window. Late developments such as large-scale defections or sudden leadership vacuums could theoretically alter the outlook, though current evidence points to continuity through the end of June.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$1,587,880শেষ তারিখ
Jun 30, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s Islamic Republic has demonstrated institutional resilience following the February–March 2026 conflict and the rapid succession to Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader, with security forces and the IRGC maintaining control amid protests and economic strain. Traders price a coup attempt by June 30 at just 3.2 percent because no verified factional split or coordinated military challenge has emerged in recent months, consistent with the regime’s historical capacity to suppress dissent through appointments, surveillance, and force. While internal divisions between hard-liners and moderates persist and post-war economic pressures continue, these factors have not produced the coordinated action needed for an attempt within the narrow remaining window. Late developments such as large-scale defections or sudden leadership vacuums could theoretically alter the outlook, though current evidence points to continuity through the end of June.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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