**Trader consensus at 98% against an Iran coup attempt by June 30 reflects the regime’s recent consolidation of power following the February 2026 war and leadership transition.** Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination prompted a swift handover to his son Mojtaba via the Interim Leadership Council, with IRGC commanders, senior officials, and institutions pledging allegiance by early March. Internal factional tensions persist over U.S. negotiations and ceasefire terms, yet the security apparatus has maintained control amid ongoing protests and strikes through June. No verified military defections, large-scale unrest, or credible coup signals have emerged in the past month. With the deadline only weeks away, the short timeframe further lowers the likelihood of rapid internal overthrow. Realistic shifts would require unforeseen events such as sudden elite fractures, mass defections, or major external shocks disrupting the current power balance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$1,767,877 Объем
$1,767,877 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$1,767,877 Объем
$1,767,877 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus at 98% against an Iran coup attempt by June 30 reflects the regime’s recent consolidation of power following the February 2026 war and leadership transition.** Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination prompted a swift handover to his son Mojtaba via the Interim Leadership Council, with IRGC commanders, senior officials, and institutions pledging allegiance by early March. Internal factional tensions persist over U.S. negotiations and ceasefire terms, yet the security apparatus has maintained control amid ongoing protests and strikes through June. No verified military defections, large-scale unrest, or credible coup signals have emerged in the past month. With the deadline only weeks away, the short timeframe further lowers the likelihood of rapid internal overthrow. Realistic shifts would require unforeseen events such as sudden elite fractures, mass defections, or major external shocks disrupting the current power balance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Объем
$1,767,877Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Trader consensus at 98% against an Iran coup attempt by June 30 reflects the regime’s recent consolidation of power following the February 2026 war and leadership transition.** Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination prompted a swift handover to his son Mojtaba via the Interim Leadership Council, with IRGC commanders, senior officials, and institutions pledging allegiance by early March. Internal factional tensions persist over U.S. negotiations and ceasefire terms, yet the security apparatus has maintained control amid ongoing protests and strikes through June. No verified military defections, large-scale unrest, or credible coup signals have emerged in the past month. With the deadline only weeks away, the short timeframe further lowers the likelihood of rapid internal overthrow. Realistic shifts would require unforeseen events such as sudden elite fractures, mass defections, or major external shocks disrupting the current power balance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,769,533Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus at 98% against an Iran coup attempt by June 30 reflects the regime’s recent consolidation of power following the February 2026 war and leadership transition.** Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination prompted a swift handover to his son Mojtaba via the Interim Leadership Council, with IRGC commanders, senior officials, and institutions pledging allegiance by early March. Internal factional tensions persist over U.S. negotiations and ceasefire terms, yet the security apparatus has maintained control amid ongoing protests and strikes through June. No verified military defections, large-scale unrest, or credible coup signals have emerged in the past month. With the deadline only weeks away, the short timeframe further lowers the likelihood of rapid internal overthrow. Realistic shifts would require unforeseen events such as sudden elite fractures, mass defections, or major external shocks disrupting the current power balance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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