Iran’s post-February 2026 stabilization after U.S.-Israeli strikes and the March succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader underpins traders’ 96.4% consensus that no coup attempt will occur by June 30. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has sustained institutional control through security operations amid ongoing protests and economic pressures, with reporting confirming no elite fractures, military defections, or command breakdowns in recent weeks. Tehran continues diplomatic engagement with the United States on nuclear issues, the Strait of Hormuz, and Lebanon-related matters. A sudden external escalation, large-scale security force defections, or unexpected leadership vacuum could still shift conditions before the deadline, though current dynamics reflect sustained regime continuity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$1,557,121 Объем
$1,557,121 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$1,557,121 Объем
$1,557,121 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-February 2026 stabilization after U.S.-Israeli strikes and the March succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader underpins traders’ 96.4% consensus that no coup attempt will occur by June 30. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has sustained institutional control through security operations amid ongoing protests and economic pressures, with reporting confirming no elite fractures, military defections, or command breakdowns in recent weeks. Tehran continues diplomatic engagement with the United States on nuclear issues, the Strait of Hormuz, and Lebanon-related matters. A sudden external escalation, large-scale security force defections, or unexpected leadership vacuum could still shift conditions before the deadline, though current dynamics reflect sustained regime continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
Объем
$1,557,121Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-February 2026 stabilization after U.S.-Israeli strikes and the March succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader underpins traders’ 96.4% consensus that no coup attempt will occur by June 30. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has sustained institutional control through security operations amid ongoing protests and economic pressures, with reporting confirming no elite fractures, military defections, or command breakdowns in recent weeks. Tehran continues diplomatic engagement with the United States on nuclear issues, the Strait of Hormuz, and Lebanon-related matters. A sudden external escalation, large-scale security force defections, or unexpected leadership vacuum could still shift conditions before the deadline, though current dynamics reflect sustained regime continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$1,557,121Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s post-February 2026 stabilization after U.S.-Israeli strikes and the March succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader underpins traders’ 96.4% consensus that no coup attempt will occur by June 30. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has sustained institutional control through security operations amid ongoing protests and economic pressures, with reporting confirming no elite fractures, military defections, or command breakdowns in recent weeks. Tehran continues diplomatic engagement with the United States on nuclear issues, the Strait of Hormuz, and Lebanon-related matters. A sudden external escalation, large-scale security force defections, or unexpected leadership vacuum could still shift conditions before the deadline, though current dynamics reflect sustained regime continuity.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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