Iran’s post-February 2026 stabilization following U.S.-Israeli strikes and the March constitutional succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader underpins traders’ 97% consensus against a coup attempt by June 30. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has sustained institutional control through security operations amid protests and economic pressures, with reporting confirming no elite fractures, military defections, or command breakdowns in recent weeks. Tehran continues prioritizing diplomatic engagement with the United States on nuclear issues, the Strait of Hormuz, and Lebanon-related matters. A sudden external escalation, large-scale security force defections, or unexpected leadership vacuum could still alter the outlook before the deadline, though current conditions reflect sustained regime continuity.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$1,555,287 交易量
$1,555,287 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$1,555,287 交易量
$1,555,287 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-February 2026 stabilization following U.S.-Israeli strikes and the March constitutional succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader underpins traders’ 97% consensus against a coup attempt by June 30. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has sustained institutional control through security operations amid protests and economic pressures, with reporting confirming no elite fractures, military defections, or command breakdowns in recent weeks. Tehran continues prioritizing diplomatic engagement with the United States on nuclear issues, the Strait of Hormuz, and Lebanon-related matters. A sudden external escalation, large-scale security force defections, or unexpected leadership vacuum could still alter the outlook before the deadline, though current conditions reflect sustained regime continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
交易量
$1,555,287结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s post-February 2026 stabilization following U.S.-Israeli strikes and the March constitutional succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader underpins traders’ 97% consensus against a coup attempt by June 30. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has sustained institutional control through security operations amid protests and economic pressures, with reporting confirming no elite fractures, military defections, or command breakdowns in recent weeks. Tehran continues prioritizing diplomatic engagement with the United States on nuclear issues, the Strait of Hormuz, and Lebanon-related matters. A sudden external escalation, large-scale security force defections, or unexpected leadership vacuum could still alter the outlook before the deadline, though current conditions reflect sustained regime continuity.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,555,287结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 2:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s post-February 2026 stabilization following U.S.-Israeli strikes and the March constitutional succession of Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader underpins traders’ 97% consensus against a coup attempt by June 30. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has sustained institutional control through security operations amid protests and economic pressures, with reporting confirming no elite fractures, military defections, or command breakdowns in recent weeks. Tehran continues prioritizing diplomatic engagement with the United States on nuclear issues, the Strait of Hormuz, and Lebanon-related matters. A sudden external escalation, large-scale security force defections, or unexpected leadership vacuum could still alter the outlook before the deadline, though current conditions reflect sustained regime continuity.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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