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icon for Iran Nuke before 2027?
Politics·Iran

Iran Nuke before 2027?

icon for Iran Nuke before 2027?
Politics·Iran

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

5% chance
Polymarket

$1,280,040 Vol.

5% chance
Polymarket

$1,280,040 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Military strikes by the US and Israel in June 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, destroying most installed centrifuges and rendering sites inoperable while entombing hundreds of kilograms of 60% enriched uranium in collapsed tunnels. IAEA inspectors have had no access to key sites since February 2026, confirming no ongoing enrichment or verifiable weaponization activity, with the program described as dormant or in hibernation. These developments underpin trader consensus at 95% against an Iranian nuclear device before 2027. Remaining uncertainties include potential recovery of limited surviving centrifuges or clandestine extraction of stockpiles, though analysts assess both as requiring far longer than the current four-month window absent major undetected shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$1,280,040
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Military strikes by the US and Israel in June 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, destroying most installed centrifuges and rendering sites inoperable while entombing hundreds of kilograms of 60% enriched uranium in collapsed tunnels. IAEA inspectors have had no access to key sites since February 2026, confirming no ongoing enrichment or verifiable weaponization activity, with the program described as dormant or in hibernation. These developments underpin trader consensus at 95% against an Iranian nuclear device before 2027. Remaining uncertainties include potential recovery of limited surviving centrifuges or clandestine extraction of stockpiles, though analysts assess both as requiring far longer than the current four-month window absent major undetected shifts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$1,280,040
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran Nuke before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 5% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 5¢, the market collectively assigns a 5% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran Nuke before 2027?" has generated $1.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran Nuke before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Iran Nuke before 2027?" is 5% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 5% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Iran Nuke before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.