EU sanctions packages and German government policy under Chancellor Friedrich Merz have effectively blocked any restart of Nord Stream flows, reinforced by binding regulations phasing out Russian pipeline gas imports by late 2027. The 2022 sabotage left most lines damaged, while the intact Nord Stream 2 branch faces certification barriers, U.S. sanctions, and explicit opposition from Berlin despite Russian offers to resume supplies. Europe’s diversification to LNG and alternative pipelines has further reduced reliance. With only months remaining before 2027, these structural and political constraints drive the 96% trader consensus on “No.” A rapid Ukraine peace agreement or major sanctions reversal could theoretically enable activation of the intact line, though such shifts appear unlikely in the near term.