President Donald Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield underground activity by those states, remains the primary driver of trader attention. Energy Department officials quickly clarified that planned activities center on subcritical experiments and non-explosive system tests at the Nevada National Security Site, consistent with the ongoing Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program. Full-yield explosive tests would require 24–36 months of preparation and face technical, legal, and diplomatic hurdles, with internal planning documents referencing execution of the broader directive by the end of 2028. No explosive test has occurred since 1992, and recent lab certifications continue to affirm stockpile reliability without such detonations. Scheduled Senate hearings and budget deliberations on related National Nuclear Security Administration funding could provide near-term clarity on timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.S. nuclear test by...?
U.S. nuclear test by...?
$795,287 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30, 2026
1%
December 31, 2026
5%
$795,287 Vol.
September 30, 2026
$57,555 Vol.
1%
December 31, 2026
$76,920 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield underground activity by those states, remains the primary driver of trader attention. Energy Department officials quickly clarified that planned activities center on subcritical experiments and non-explosive system tests at the Nevada National Security Site, consistent with the ongoing Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program. Full-yield explosive tests would require 24–36 months of preparation and face technical, legal, and diplomatic hurdles, with internal planning documents referencing execution of the broader directive by the end of 2028. No explosive test has occurred since 1992, and recent lab certifications continue to affirm stockpile reliability without such detonations. Scheduled Senate hearings and budget deliberations on related National Nuclear Security Administration funding could provide near-term clarity on timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$795,287End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Donald Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield underground activity by those states, remains the primary driver of trader attention. Energy Department officials quickly clarified that planned activities center on subcritical experiments and non-explosive system tests at the Nevada National Security Site, consistent with the ongoing Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program. Full-yield explosive tests would require 24–36 months of preparation and face technical, legal, and diplomatic hurdles, with internal planning documents referencing execution of the broader directive by the end of 2028. No explosive test has occurred since 1992, and recent lab certifications continue to affirm stockpile reliability without such detonations. Scheduled Senate hearings and budget deliberations on related National Nuclear Security Administration funding could provide near-term clarity on timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$795,287End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Donald Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear weapons testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield underground activity by those states, remains the primary driver of trader attention. Energy Department officials quickly clarified that planned activities center on subcritical experiments and non-explosive system tests at the Nevada National Security Site, consistent with the ongoing Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program. Full-yield explosive tests would require 24–36 months of preparation and face technical, legal, and diplomatic hurdles, with internal planning documents referencing execution of the broader directive by the end of 2028. No explosive test has occurred since 1992, and recent lab certifications continue to affirm stockpile reliability without such detonations. Scheduled Senate hearings and budget deliberations on related National Nuclear Security Administration funding could provide near-term clarity on timelines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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