Recent US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear-related facilities, including the Taleghan-2 site in March and strikes near Bushehr in early April, have inflicted significant damage, delaying any potential weaponization efforts and bolstering the 90.5% "No" trader consensus for a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA updates as of April 6 confirm no radiation leaks or shifts in program purpose, while US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's March testimony and a Congressional Research Service report on April 9 state Iran has not resumed high-level uranium enrichment or proliferation-sensitive activities. Ongoing sanctions, such as Treasury actions on April 21 targeting missile networks, further constrain capabilities, though diplomatic breakthroughs or undetected covert advances could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$176,293 Vol.
$176,293 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$176,293 Vol.
$176,293 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear-related facilities, including the Taleghan-2 site in March and strikes near Bushehr in early April, have inflicted significant damage, delaying any potential weaponization efforts and bolstering the 90.5% "No" trader consensus for a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA updates as of April 6 confirm no radiation leaks or shifts in program purpose, while US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's March testimony and a Congressional Research Service report on April 9 state Iran has not resumed high-level uranium enrichment or proliferation-sensitive activities. Ongoing sanctions, such as Treasury actions on April 21 targeting missile networks, further constrain capabilities, though diplomatic breakthroughs or undetected covert advances could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$176,293End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear-related facilities, including the Taleghan-2 site in March and strikes near Bushehr in early April, have inflicted significant damage, delaying any potential weaponization efforts and bolstering the 90.5% "No" trader consensus for a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA updates as of April 6 confirm no radiation leaks or shifts in program purpose, while US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's March testimony and a Congressional Research Service report on April 9 state Iran has not resumed high-level uranium enrichment or proliferation-sensitive activities. Ongoing sanctions, such as Treasury actions on April 21 targeting missile networks, further constrain capabilities, though diplomatic breakthroughs or undetected covert advances could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$176,293End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear-related facilities, including the Taleghan-2 site in March and strikes near Bushehr in early April, have inflicted significant damage, delaying any potential weaponization efforts and bolstering the 90.5% "No" trader consensus for a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA updates as of April 6 confirm no radiation leaks or shifts in program purpose, while US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard's March testimony and a Congressional Research Service report on April 9 state Iran has not resumed high-level uranium enrichment or proliferation-sensitive activities. Ongoing sanctions, such as Treasury actions on April 21 targeting missile networks, further constrain capabilities, though diplomatic breakthroughs or undetected covert advances could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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