Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Iran nuclear test before 2027?
Politics·Nuclear

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

icon for Iran nuclear test before 2027?
Politics·Nuclear

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

5% chance
Polymarket

$258,465 Vol.

5% chance
Polymarket

$258,465 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.International scrutiny intensified in early September 2026 when the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council over unresolved safeguards issues and restricted inspector access, following earlier U.S. and Israeli strikes that damaged key enrichment sites. Satellite imagery shows ongoing construction at the Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz, yet no verified uranium enrichment resumption or weaponization steps have occurred amid a June 2026 memorandum reaffirming no nuclear weapons pursuit. Traders assign 95.4% probability to no nuclear test before 2027, reflecting the program's degraded infrastructure, persistent diplomatic pressure, and Iran's public emphasis on peaceful activities. A sudden escalation in regional tensions or verified breakout capability could still shift this consensus before the end of 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$258,465
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.International scrutiny intensified in early September 2026 when the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council over unresolved safeguards issues and restricted inspector access, following earlier U.S. and Israeli strikes that damaged key enrichment sites. Satellite imagery shows ongoing construction at the Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz, yet no verified uranium enrichment resumption or weaponization steps have occurred amid a June 2026 memorandum reaffirming no nuclear weapons pursuit. Traders assign 95.4% probability to no nuclear test before 2027, reflecting the program's degraded infrastructure, persistent diplomatic pressure, and Iran's public emphasis on peaceful activities. A sudden escalation in regional tensions or verified breakout capability could still shift this consensus before the end of 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.

Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.

The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield. Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution. Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran. The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$258,465
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Related

icon for Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?

Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?

6%
icon for Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?

Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?

6%
icon for Iran Nuke before 2027?

Iran Nuke before 2027?

6%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran nuclear test before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 5% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 5¢, the market collectively assigns a 5% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran nuclear test before 2027?" has generated $258.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran nuclear test before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Iran nuclear test before 2027?" is 5% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 5% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Iran nuclear test before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.