Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, damaging facilities and rendering much of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried. IAEA inspectors withdrew in June 2025 and have not returned, while U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations, including reported U.S. demands for facility dismantlement and material removal, combined with sanctions and reconstruction constraints at affected sites, have limited Iran's capacity for rapid weaponization or testing. These verified military and diplomatic pressures underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTeste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Teste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Sim
$207,018 Vol.
$207,018 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$207,018 Vol.
$207,018 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, damaging facilities and rendering much of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried. IAEA inspectors withdrew in June 2025 and have not returned, while U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations, including reported U.S. demands for facility dismantlement and material removal, combined with sanctions and reconstruction constraints at affected sites, have limited Iran's capacity for rapid weaponization or testing. These verified military and diplomatic pressures underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$207,018Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, damaging facilities and rendering much of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried. IAEA inspectors withdrew in June 2025 and have not returned, while U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations, including reported U.S. demands for facility dismantlement and material removal, combined with sanctions and reconstruction constraints at affected sites, have limited Iran's capacity for rapid weaponization or testing. These verified military and diplomatic pressures underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$207,018Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in June 2025 and February 2026 targeted key Iranian enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, damaging facilities and rendering much of the enriched uranium stockpile inaccessible or buried. IAEA inspectors withdrew in June 2025 and have not returned, while U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Iran has not resumed uranium enrichment. Ongoing diplomatic negotiations, including reported U.S. demands for facility dismantlement and material removal, combined with sanctions and reconstruction constraints at affected sites, have limited Iran's capacity for rapid weaponization or testing. These verified military and diplomatic pressures underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test remains unlikely before 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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