US and Israeli strikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz, Isfahan, and underground sites like Taleghan 2 through early 2026, have significantly degraded Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure, prompting trader consensus at 91% against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA reports from February confirm Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—enough for several bombs if further processed—but no evidence of weaponization or diversion, with breakout timelines estimated at 1-3 months amid ongoing verification challenges. US intelligence assessments reiterate Tehran has not restarted a bomb program, upholding the Supreme Leader's longstanding fatwa against nuclear arms despite new leadership under Mojtaba Khamenei. De-escalation signals, including indirect negotiations and war wind-down, reinforce low odds, though regime instability or undetected advances could alter trajectories ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$176,167 Vol.
$176,167 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$176,167 Vol.
$176,167 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli strikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz, Isfahan, and underground sites like Taleghan 2 through early 2026, have significantly degraded Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure, prompting trader consensus at 91% against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA reports from February confirm Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—enough for several bombs if further processed—but no evidence of weaponization or diversion, with breakout timelines estimated at 1-3 months amid ongoing verification challenges. US intelligence assessments reiterate Tehran has not restarted a bomb program, upholding the Supreme Leader's longstanding fatwa against nuclear arms despite new leadership under Mojtaba Khamenei. De-escalation signals, including indirect negotiations and war wind-down, reinforce low odds, though regime instability or undetected advances could alter trajectories ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$176,167End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli strikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz, Isfahan, and underground sites like Taleghan 2 through early 2026, have significantly degraded Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure, prompting trader consensus at 91% against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA reports from February confirm Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—enough for several bombs if further processed—but no evidence of weaponization or diversion, with breakout timelines estimated at 1-3 months amid ongoing verification challenges. US intelligence assessments reiterate Tehran has not restarted a bomb program, upholding the Supreme Leader's longstanding fatwa against nuclear arms despite new leadership under Mojtaba Khamenei. De-escalation signals, including indirect negotiations and war wind-down, reinforce low odds, though regime instability or undetected advances could alter trajectories ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$176,167End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli strikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities, including Natanz, Isfahan, and underground sites like Taleghan 2 through early 2026, have significantly degraded Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure, prompting trader consensus at 91% against a nuclear test before 2027. IAEA reports from February confirm Iran's 440kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium—enough for several bombs if further processed—but no evidence of weaponization or diversion, with breakout timelines estimated at 1-3 months amid ongoing verification challenges. US intelligence assessments reiterate Tehran has not restarted a bomb program, upholding the Supreme Leader's longstanding fatwa against nuclear arms despite new leadership under Mojtaba Khamenei. De-escalation signals, including indirect negotiations and war wind-down, reinforce low odds, though regime instability or undetected advances could alter trajectories ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions