**Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 significantly degraded Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, damaging above-ground facilities and limiting access to underground sites.** IAEA inspectors withdrew in June 2025 and have not resumed full verification, while U.S. intelligence assessments through March 2026 indicate Iran has not resumed enriching uranium. Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remains largely inaccessible under rubble at struck sites, with officials stating no immediate recovery plans. A Pakistan-mediated ceasefire took effect in April 2026, followed by negotiations, though a lasting settlement on enrichment limits remains elusive. These developments, combined with the absence of confirmed weaponization activity or test preparations, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test is unlikely before 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoTeste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Teste nuclear iraniano antes de 2027?
Sim
$206,751 Vol.
$206,751 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
$206,751 Vol.
$206,751 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 significantly degraded Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, damaging above-ground facilities and limiting access to underground sites.** IAEA inspectors withdrew in June 2025 and have not resumed full verification, while U.S. intelligence assessments through March 2026 indicate Iran has not resumed enriching uranium. Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remains largely inaccessible under rubble at struck sites, with officials stating no immediate recovery plans. A Pakistan-mediated ceasefire took effect in April 2026, followed by negotiations, though a lasting settlement on enrichment limits remains elusive. These developments, combined with the absence of confirmed weaponization activity or test preparations, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test is unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Volume
$206,751Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 significantly degraded Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, damaging above-ground facilities and limiting access to underground sites.** IAEA inspectors withdrew in June 2025 and have not resumed full verification, while U.S. intelligence assessments through March 2026 indicate Iran has not resumed enriching uranium. Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remains largely inaccessible under rubble at struck sites, with officials stating no immediate recovery plans. A Pakistan-mediated ceasefire took effect in April 2026, followed by negotiations, though a lasting settlement on enrichment limits remains elusive. These developments, combined with the absence of confirmed weaponization activity or test preparations, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test is unlikely before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$206,751Data de Término
31 dez 2026Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent U.S. and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February–March 2026 significantly degraded Iran's uranium enrichment infrastructure at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, damaging above-ground facilities and limiting access to underground sites.** IAEA inspectors withdrew in June 2025 and have not resumed full verification, while U.S. intelligence assessments through March 2026 indicate Iran has not resumed enriching uranium. Iran's enriched uranium stockpile remains largely inaccessible under rubble at struck sites, with officials stating no immediate recovery plans. A Pakistan-mediated ceasefire took effect in April 2026, followed by negotiations, though a lasting settlement on enrichment limits remains elusive. These developments, combined with the absence of confirmed weaponization activity or test preparations, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear test is unlikely before 2027.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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