Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?

Ended: Apr 30

Dec 31

Ended: Apr 30

Dec 31

<1% chance

$23,430 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026

<1% chance

$23,430 Vol.

Apr 30, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government announces a full evacuation of the U.S. Embassy in Beirut, Lebanon, or a full evacuation of the embassy is otherwise confirmed by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A full evacuation announced within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual evacuation subsequently takes place within the timeframe. Announcements of a partial evacuation, where some staff are intended to remain, will not count. The resolution source will be official statements from the U.S. government, or a consensus of credible reporting confirming the evacuation of the embassy.

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by December 31?

14%

Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?

Will any country expel a U.S. ambassador by December 31?

34%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 0% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 0¢, the market collectively assigns a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?" has generated $23.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 24, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?" is 0% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 0% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $23.4K traded on “U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of "Yes" or "No" represents the market's implied probability. A "Yes" price of 0¢ for "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?" means traders collectively believe there is a 0% chance this event will happen. If you buy "Yes" at 0¢ and the event does happen, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 100¢ per share. If the event doesn't happen, those shares are worth $0.

The "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?" market has been resolved. The final result has been determined and the market is no longer open for trading. You can still review the historical odds, outcome probabilities, and comments on this page to see how predictions evolved over time.

The "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?" market has an active community of 15 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Note on Middle East Markets

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?

U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?

Rules

Market Context

Rules

Market Context

Related

Comments (15)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?" prediction market?

How much trading activity has "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?" generated on Polymarket?

How do I trade on "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?"?

What are the current odds for "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?"?

How will "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?" be resolved?

Can I follow "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?" without placing a trade?

Why are Polymarket's odds for "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?" considered reliable?

How do I start trading on "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?"?

What does a price of 0¢ for "Yes" mean?

When does the "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?" market close?

What are traders saying about "U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by April 30?"?

What is Polymarket?