Recent August Core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month—above the 0.2% consensus—pushing the three-month annualized pace higher and lifting market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16–17 FOMC meeting above 70%. This print, driven by shelter costs, airline fares, and services, followed softer July data and has narrowed the gap between trader expectations for September’s release and official guidance. With the September figure due in mid-October, probabilities cluster around 0.3% and 0.5% as markets weigh whether the August acceleration signals persistent underlying pressure or a temporary rebound amid stable 2.4% year-over-year core readings. Treasury yields and Fed funds futures embed this uncertainty, with upcoming labor data and central bank communications likely to refine the near-term path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0.3% 43%
0.1% 42%
0.2% 42%
0.5% 41%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
≤0.0%
28%
0.1%
42%
0.2%
42%
0.3%
43%
0.4%
38%
0.5%
41%
0.6%+
39%
0.3% 43%
0.1% 42%
0.2% 42%
0.5% 41%
NEW
NEW
Oct 14, 2026
≤0.0%
$0 Vol.
28%
0.1%
$0 Vol.
42%
0.2%
$0 Vol.
42%
0.3%
$0 Vol.
43%
0.4%
$0 Vol.
38%
0.5%
$0 Vol.
41%
0.6%+
$0 Vol.
39%
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August Core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month—above the 0.2% consensus—pushing the three-month annualized pace higher and lifting market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16–17 FOMC meeting above 70%. This print, driven by shelter costs, airline fares, and services, followed softer July data and has narrowed the gap between trader expectations for September’s release and official guidance. With the September figure due in mid-October, probabilities cluster around 0.3% and 0.5% as markets weigh whether the August acceleration signals persistent underlying pressure or a temporary rebound amid stable 2.4% year-over-year core readings. Treasury yields and Fed funds futures embed this uncertainty, with upcoming labor data and central bank communications likely to refine the near-term path.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 11:28 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 11:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.Recent August Core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month—above the 0.2% consensus—pushing the three-month annualized pace higher and lifting market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16–17 FOMC meeting above 70%. This print, driven by shelter costs, airline fares, and services, followed softer July data and has narrowed the gap between trader expectations for September’s release and official guidance. With the September figure due in mid-October, probabilities cluster around 0.3% and 0.5% as markets weigh whether the August acceleration signals persistent underlying pressure or a temporary rebound amid stable 2.4% year-over-year core readings. Treasury yields and Fed funds futures embed this uncertainty, with upcoming labor data and central bank communications likely to refine the near-term path.
This is a market about the one-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy in September 2026 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
This market will resolve to the one-month percentage change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers excluding food and energy (Core CPI-U) in September 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report (seasonally adjusted change from the preceding month).
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for September 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports core inflation (all items less food and energy) over 1-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure (the all items index excluding food and energy), not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 11:28 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August Core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month—above the 0.2% consensus—pushing the three-month annualized pace higher and lifting market-implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16–17 FOMC meeting above 70%. This print, driven by shelter costs, airline fares, and services, followed softer July data and has narrowed the gap between trader expectations for September’s release and official guidance. With the September figure due in mid-October, probabilities cluster around 0.3% and 0.5% as markets weigh whether the August acceleration signals persistent underlying pressure or a temporary rebound amid stable 2.4% year-over-year core readings. Treasury yields and Fed funds futures embed this uncertainty, with upcoming labor data and central bank communications likely to refine the near-term path.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions