Recent monthly CPI readings around 1.2% year-on-year through May 2026, combined with persistent weak domestic demand and subdued food prices, have positioned the 1.1–1.5% annual outcome as the market favorite at 54% implied probability. Elevated energy and transport costs tied to Middle East supply disruptions have supported non-food inflation and producer prices, countering deflationary pressures from the property sector and overcapacity. Analyst forecasts cluster near 0.6–1.2% for the full year, reflecting cautious policy expectations ahead of potential stimulus or further data releases. The closely contested lower ranges underscore ongoing uncertainty from fluctuating pork prices and global commodity trends.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiChina Annual Inflation 2026
1.1 – 1.5% 56%
0.6 – 1.0% 19%
1.6 – 2.0% 15.2%
2.5%+ 7.2%
$44,388 Vol.
$44,388 Vol.
<-1.0%
24%
-0.9 – -0.5%
5%
-0.4 – 0.0%
3%
0.1 – 0.5%
5%
0.6 – 1.0%
19%
1.1 – 1.5%
52%
1.6 – 2.0%
15%
2.0-2.4%
5%
2.5%+
10%
1.1 – 1.5% 56%
0.6 – 1.0% 19%
1.6 – 2.0% 15.2%
2.5%+ 7.2%
$44,388 Vol.
$44,388 Vol.
<-1.0%
24%
-0.9 – -0.5%
5%
-0.4 – 0.0%
3%
0.1 – 0.5%
5%
0.6 – 1.0%
19%
1.1 – 1.5%
52%
1.6 – 2.0%
15%
2.0-2.4%
5%
2.5%+
10%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 21, 2026, 7:27 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly NBS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the NBS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), currently expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/), locating the table named "Consumer Price Indexes in December 2026", and finding the consumer price index figure in the column labeled "Growth Rate Y/Y (%)".
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly NBS CPI news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent monthly CPI readings around 1.2% year-on-year through May 2026, combined with persistent weak domestic demand and subdued food prices, have positioned the 1.1–1.5% annual outcome as the market favorite at 54% implied probability. Elevated energy and transport costs tied to Middle East supply disruptions have supported non-food inflation and producer prices, countering deflationary pressures from the property sector and overcapacity. Analyst forecasts cluster near 0.6–1.2% for the full year, reflecting cautious policy expectations ahead of potential stimulus or further data releases. The closely contested lower ranges underscore ongoing uncertainty from fluctuating pork prices and global commodity trends.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan