South Africa’s 2026 annual inflation outlook remains closely contested among traders, with the three leading ranges (4.4-4.7%, >5.0%, and 4.7-5.0%) separated by just a few percentage points of implied probability. Persistent upside pressure from global energy shocks, including renewed fuel price increases tied to geopolitical tensions, has pushed the August CPI print to 4.4% year-over-year and prompted the SARB to hike its repo rate to 7.25% in September while flagging risks of readings above 5% later this year. Official and private forecasts cluster near 4.3-4.4% for the full-year average, supported by a resilient rand, contained food prices, and easing core goods inflation, yet services and energy components continue to present material upside risks. The next CPI release in October and the November MPC meeting will provide key data points that could shift the balance among these tightly grouped outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSouth Africa Annual Inflation 2026
South Africa Annual Inflation 2026
>5.0% 35.1%
4.4-4.7% 33.8%
4.7-5.0% 31.2%
4.1-4.4% 1.6%
$66,785 Vol.
$66,785 Vol.
Jan 19, 2027
<2.6%
1%
2.6-2.9%
1%
2.9-3.2%
1%
3.2-3.5%
1%
3.5-3.8%
1%
3.8-4.1%
1%
4.1-4.4%
2%
4.4-4.7%
34%
4.7-5.0%
31%
>5.0%
35%
>5.0% 35.1%
4.4-4.7% 33.8%
4.7-5.0% 31.2%
4.1-4.4% 1.6%
$66,785 Vol.
$66,785 Vol.
Jan 19, 2027
<2.6%
$1,994 Vol.
1%
2.6-2.9%
$2,389 Vol.
1%
2.9-3.2%
$2,089 Vol.
1%
3.2-3.5%
$2,140 Vol.
1%
3.5-3.8%
$2,363 Vol.
1%
3.8-4.1%
$4,002 Vol.
1%
4.1-4.4%
$4,655 Vol.
2%
4.4-4.7%
$22,350 Vol.
34%
4.7-5.0%
$9,688 Vol.
31%
>5.0%
$15,115 Vol.
35%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874South Africa’s 2026 annual inflation outlook remains closely contested among traders, with the three leading ranges (4.4-4.7%, >5.0%, and 4.7-5.0%) separated by just a few percentage points of implied probability. Persistent upside pressure from global energy shocks, including renewed fuel price increases tied to geopolitical tensions, has pushed the August CPI print to 4.4% year-over-year and prompted the SARB to hike its repo rate to 7.25% in September while flagging risks of readings above 5% later this year. Official and private forecasts cluster near 4.3-4.4% for the full-year average, supported by a resilient rand, contained food prices, and easing core goods inflation, yet services and energy components continue to present material upside risks. The next CPI release in October and the November MPC meeting will provide key data points that could shift the balance among these tightly grouped outcomes.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Market Opened: Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$66,785End Date
Jan 21, 2027Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874South Africa’s 2026 annual inflation outlook remains closely contested among traders, with the three leading ranges (4.4-4.7%, >5.0%, and 4.7-5.0%) separated by just a few percentage points of implied probability. Persistent upside pressure from global energy shocks, including renewed fuel price increases tied to geopolitical tensions, has pushed the August CPI print to 4.4% year-over-year and prompted the SARB to hike its repo rate to 7.25% in September while flagging risks of readings above 5% later this year. Official and private forecasts cluster near 4.3-4.4% for the full-year average, supported by a resilient rand, contained food prices, and easing core goods inflation, yet services and energy components continue to present material upside risks. The next CPI release in October and the November MPC meeting will provide key data points that could shift the balance among these tightly grouped outcomes.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Volume
$66,785End Date
Jan 21, 2027Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2f5e3684c...South Africa’s 2026 annual inflation outlook remains closely contested among traders, with the three leading ranges (4.4-4.7%, >5.0%, and 4.7-5.0%) separated by just a few percentage points of implied probability. Persistent upside pressure from global energy shocks, including renewed fuel price increases tied to geopolitical tensions, has pushed the August CPI print to 4.4% year-over-year and prompted the SARB to hike its repo rate to 7.25% in September while flagging risks of readings above 5% later this year. Official and private forecasts cluster near 4.3-4.4% for the full-year average, supported by a resilient rand, contained food prices, and easing core goods inflation, yet services and energy components continue to present material upside risks. The next CPI release in October and the November MPC meeting will provide key data points that could shift the balance among these tightly grouped outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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