Recent geopolitical tensions and elevated global oil prices have pushed South African headline inflation to 5.0% in June 2026 before easing to 4.3% in July, with transport costs as the dominant driver. The South African Reserve Bank has revised its 2026 average inflation forecast to 4.4% while hiking the repo rate to defend its 3% target, citing risks of second-round effects from fuel shocks. Trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.4–5.0% amid uncertainty over the rand, persistent energy prices, and upcoming data releases. This narrow distribution underscores the market’s assessment that further oil volatility or slower disinflation could push the annual average above 5%, while stabilization in commodity markets supports convergence toward the lower end of the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSouth Africa Annual Inflation 2026
South Africa Annual Inflation 2026
4.7-5.0% 36.7%
4.4-4.7% 32.4%
>5.0% 31.0%
3.5-3.8% 1.9%
$64,616 Vol.
$64,616 Vol.
Jan 19, 2027
<2.6%
1%
2.6-2.9%
1%
2.9-3.2%
1%
3.2-3.5%
1%
3.5-3.8%
2%
3.8-4.1%
1%
4.1-4.4%
2%
4.4-4.7%
32%
4.7-5.0%
37%
>5.0%
31%
4.7-5.0% 36.7%
4.4-4.7% 32.4%
>5.0% 31.0%
3.5-3.8% 1.9%
$64,616 Vol.
$64,616 Vol.
Jan 19, 2027
<2.6%
$1,823 Vol.
1%
2.6-2.9%
$2,238 Vol.
1%
2.9-3.2%
$1,937 Vol.
1%
3.2-3.5%
$1,969 Vol.
1%
3.5-3.8%
$2,191 Vol.
2%
3.8-4.1%
$3,830 Vol.
1%
4.1-4.4%
$4,126 Vol.
2%
4.4-4.7%
$22,063 Vol.
32%
4.7-5.0%
$9,496 Vol.
37%
>5.0%
$14,943 Vol.
31%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Recent geopolitical tensions and elevated global oil prices have pushed South African headline inflation to 5.0% in June 2026 before easing to 4.3% in July, with transport costs as the dominant driver. The South African Reserve Bank has revised its 2026 average inflation forecast to 4.4% while hiking the repo rate to defend its 3% target, citing risks of second-round effects from fuel shocks. Trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.4–5.0% amid uncertainty over the rand, persistent energy prices, and upcoming data releases. This narrow distribution underscores the market’s assessment that further oil volatility or slower disinflation could push the annual average above 5%, while stabilization in commodity markets supports convergence toward the lower end of the range.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Market Opened: Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Volume
$64,616End Date
Jan 21, 2027Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874Recent geopolitical tensions and elevated global oil prices have pushed South African headline inflation to 5.0% in June 2026 before easing to 4.3% in July, with transport costs as the dominant driver. The South African Reserve Bank has revised its 2026 average inflation forecast to 4.4% while hiking the repo rate to defend its 3% target, citing risks of second-round effects from fuel shocks. Trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.4–5.0% amid uncertainty over the rand, persistent energy prices, and upcoming data releases. This narrow distribution underscores the market’s assessment that further oil volatility or slower disinflation could push the annual average above 5%, while stabilization in commodity markets supports convergence toward the lower end of the range.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in South Africa over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Y/Y, % change), as reported by Statistics South Africa.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics South Africa report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Publications page (https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1859), selecting the report, and selecting “Key Findings (Summary)". The relevant figure will be the figure for annual consumer price inflation (Y/Y, %) in the relevant month. Changes in Statistics South Africa’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics South Africa Consumer Price Index report which reports inflation during 12-month periods to one decimal point (e.g. 3.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.statssa.gov.za/?page_id=1874
Volume
$64,616End Date
Jan 21, 2027Market Opened
Jan 26, 2026, 5:50 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent geopolitical tensions and elevated global oil prices have pushed South African headline inflation to 5.0% in June 2026 before easing to 4.3% in July, with transport costs as the dominant driver. The South African Reserve Bank has revised its 2026 average inflation forecast to 4.4% while hiking the repo rate to defend its 3% target, citing risks of second-round effects from fuel shocks. Trader-implied odds cluster tightly around 4.4–5.0% amid uncertainty over the rand, persistent energy prices, and upcoming data releases. This narrow distribution underscores the market’s assessment that further oil volatility or slower disinflation could push the annual average above 5%, while stabilization in commodity markets supports convergence toward the lower end of the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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