**Recent energy price surges tied to the Middle East conflict have kept euro-area inflation elevated, with the August HICP rising to 3.3% and the ECB’s September projections showing 3.0% average inflation for 2026.** The Governing Council responded by hiking the deposit facility rate 25 basis points to 2.50% on September 10, its second increase this year, while signaling that decisions remain data-dependent amid upside risks to prices from gas and electricity costs. At the same time, the euro-area economy has shown resilience, with growth projections revised higher and no clear signs of broad second-round effects yet emerging. This combination leaves traders closely divided between expecting no further move or one additional 25-basis-point hike by December, as the balance between persistent energy-driven inflation pressures and the uncertain growth outlook continues to shift with incoming data and geopolitical developments. Upcoming inflation releases and the October meeting could widen the gap between these scenarios.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated25 bps increase 38%
No change 27%
25 bps decrease 17%
50+ bps decrease 14%
NEW
NEW
Dec 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
14%
25 bps decrease
17%
No change
27%
25 bps increase
38%
50+ bps increase
13%
25 bps increase 38%
No change 27%
25 bps decrease 17%
50+ bps decrease 14%
NEW
NEW
Dec 17, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$25 Vol.
14%
25 bps decrease
$5 Vol.
17%
No change
$5 Vol.
27%
25 bps increase
$50 Vol.
38%
50+ bps increase
$26 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Recent energy price surges tied to the Middle East conflict have kept euro-area inflation elevated, with the August HICP rising to 3.3% and the ECB’s September projections showing 3.0% average inflation for 2026.** The Governing Council responded by hiking the deposit facility rate 25 basis points to 2.50% on September 10, its second increase this year, while signaling that decisions remain data-dependent amid upside risks to prices from gas and electricity costs.
At the same time, the euro-area economy has shown resilience, with growth projections revised higher and no clear signs of broad second-round effects yet emerging. This combination leaves traders closely divided between expecting no further move or one additional 25-basis-point hike by December, as the balance between persistent energy-driven inflation pressures and the uncertain growth outlook continues to shift with incoming data and geopolitical developments. Upcoming inflation releases and the October meeting could widen the gap between these scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 6:12 PM ET
Volume
$111End Date
Dec 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Recent energy price surges tied to the Middle East conflict have kept euro-area inflation elevated, with the August HICP rising to 3.3% and the ECB’s September projections showing 3.0% average inflation for 2026.** The Governing Council responded by hiking the deposit facility rate 25 basis points to 2.50% on September 10, its second increase this year, while signaling that decisions remain data-dependent amid upside risks to prices from gas and electricity costs.
At the same time, the euro-area economy has shown resilience, with growth projections revised higher and no clear signs of broad second-round effects yet emerging. This combination leaves traders closely divided between expecting no further move or one additional 25-basis-point hike by December, as the balance between persistent energy-driven inflation pressures and the uncertain growth outlook continues to shift with incoming data and geopolitical developments. Upcoming inflation releases and the October meeting could widen the gap between these scenarios.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the deposit facility rate resulting from the December 2026 meeting of the European Central Bank, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the European Central Bank, including the statement or release from its December 2026 meeting, scheduled for December 16-17, 2026, as listed on the official European Central Bank calendar (https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the European Central Bank's December 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volume
$111End Date
Dec 17, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 6:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent energy price surges tied to the Middle East conflict have kept euro-area inflation elevated, with the August HICP rising to 3.3% and the ECB’s September projections showing 3.0% average inflation for 2026.** The Governing Council responded by hiking the deposit facility rate 25 basis points to 2.50% on September 10, its second increase this year, while signaling that decisions remain data-dependent amid upside risks to prices from gas and electricity costs. At the same time, the euro-area economy has shown resilience, with growth projections revised higher and no clear signs of broad second-round effects yet emerging. This combination leaves traders closely divided between expecting no further move or one additional 25-basis-point hike by December, as the balance between persistent energy-driven inflation pressures and the uncertain growth outlook continues to shift with incoming data and geopolitical developments. Upcoming inflation releases and the October meeting could widen the gap between these scenarios.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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