The Federal Reserve’s unanimous September 16 decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%, its first hike since 2023, combined with the Summary of Economic Projections, forms the core driver of the 81.5% market-implied odds for at least one additional increase before year-end. Officials marked up their median year-end 2026 rate forecast to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants projecting further tightening amid headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in August and core measures remaining above the 2% target. Elevated energy prices stemming from geopolitical tensions, alongside tariff effects and resilient growth, have kept inflation risks tilted upward. Key near-term catalysts include the October 27-28 and December 8-9 FOMC meetings, where incoming CPI and labor data will shape whether the committee delivers the additional quarter-point move now embedded in the dot plot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated81% chance
NEW
$18,223 Vol.
NEW
$18,223 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
81% chance
NEW
$18,223 Vol.
NEW
$18,223 Vol.
Dec 8, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve’s unanimous September 16 decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%, its first hike since 2023, combined with the Summary of Economic Projections, forms the core driver of the 81.5% market-implied odds for at least one additional increase before year-end. Officials marked up their median year-end 2026 rate forecast to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants projecting further tightening amid headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in August and core measures remaining above the 2% target. Elevated energy prices stemming from geopolitical tensions, alongside tariff effects and resilient growth, have kept inflation risks tilted upward. Key near-term catalysts include the October 27-28 and December 8-9 FOMC meetings, where incoming CPI and labor data will shape whether the committee delivers the additional quarter-point move now embedded in the dot plot.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$18,223End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve’s unanimous September 16 decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%, its first hike since 2023, combined with the Summary of Economic Projections, forms the core driver of the 81.5% market-implied odds for at least one additional increase before year-end. Officials marked up their median year-end 2026 rate forecast to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants projecting further tightening amid headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in August and core measures remaining above the 2% target. Elevated energy prices stemming from geopolitical tensions, alongside tariff effects and resilient growth, have kept inflation risks tilted upward. Key near-term catalysts include the October 27-28 and December 8-9 FOMC meetings, where incoming CPI and labor data will shape whether the committee delivers the additional quarter-point move now embedded in the dot plot.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,223End Date
Dec 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve’s unanimous September 16 decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%, its first hike since 2023, combined with the Summary of Economic Projections, forms the core driver of the 81.5% market-implied odds for at least one additional increase before year-end. Officials marked up their median year-end 2026 rate forecast to 4.1%, with 16 of 18 participants projecting further tightening amid headline CPI at 3.4% year-over-year in August and core measures remaining above the 2% target. Elevated energy prices stemming from geopolitical tensions, alongside tariff effects and resilient growth, have kept inflation risks tilted upward. Key near-term catalysts include the October 27-28 and December 8-9 FOMC meetings, where incoming CPI and labor data will shape whether the committee delivers the additional quarter-point move now embedded in the dot plot.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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