Recent disinflation in Mexico, with the annual rate falling to 3.12% in July 2026 from 3.37% in June—the lowest since 2020—has concentrated trader focus on the 3.50–3.99% bucket for the December 2026 year-over-year reading. Subdued energy and food prices, a stronger peso, and Banxico's policy stance supporting core inflation's return to the 2–4% target band have reinforced this positioning, consistent with consensus forecasts near 3.2–3.5%. Key swing factors include upcoming INEGI releases, potential shifts in U.S. demand or tariffs affecting imports, and volatility in global commodity markets that could push the outcome into adjacent 3.00–3.49% or 4.00–4.49% ranges before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3.50% to 3.99% 30.6%
3.00% to 3.49% 19.9%
4.00% to 4.49% 15%
4.50% to 4.99% 9%
$60,756 Vol.
$60,756 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
1%
2.50% to 2.99%
4%
3.00% to 3.49%
20%
3.50% to 3.99%
31%
4.00% to 4.49%
15%
4.50% to 4.99%
9%
5.00% to 5.49%
7%
5.50%+
2%
3.50% to 3.99% 30.6%
3.00% to 3.49% 19.9%
4.00% to 4.49% 15%
4.50% to 4.99% 9%
$60,756 Vol.
$60,756 Vol.
Jan 8, 2027
<2.50%
$1,053 Vol.
1%
2.50% to 2.99%
$4,887 Vol.
4%
3.00% to 3.49%
$27,423 Vol.
20%
3.50% to 3.99%
$3,469 Vol.
31%
4.00% to 4.49%
$10,632 Vol.
15%
4.50% to 4.99%
$4,745 Vol.
9%
5.00% to 5.49%
$2,242 Vol.
7%
5.50%+
$6,305 Vol.
2%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent disinflation in Mexico, with the annual rate falling to 3.12% in July 2026 from 3.37% in June—the lowest since 2020—has concentrated trader focus on the 3.50–3.99% bucket for the December 2026 year-over-year reading. Subdued energy and food prices, a stronger peso, and Banxico's policy stance supporting core inflation's return to the 2–4% target band have reinforced this positioning, consistent with consensus forecasts near 3.2–3.5%. Key swing factors include upcoming INEGI releases, potential shifts in U.S. demand or tariffs affecting imports, and volatility in global commodity markets that could push the outcome into adjacent 3.00–3.49% or 4.00–4.49% ranges before year-end resolution.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Market Opened: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$60,756End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent disinflation in Mexico, with the annual rate falling to 3.12% in July 2026 from 3.37% in June—the lowest since 2020—has concentrated trader focus on the 3.50–3.99% bucket for the December 2026 year-over-year reading. Subdued energy and food prices, a stronger peso, and Banxico's policy stance supporting core inflation's return to the 2–4% target band have reinforced this positioning, consistent with consensus forecasts near 3.2–3.5%. Key swing factors include upcoming INEGI releases, potential shifts in U.S. demand or tariffs affecting imports, and volatility in global commodity markets that could push the outcome into adjacent 3.00–3.49% or 4.00–4.49% ranges before year-end resolution.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$60,756End Date
Jan 8, 2027Market Opened
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent disinflation in Mexico, with the annual rate falling to 3.12% in July 2026 from 3.37% in June—the lowest since 2020—has concentrated trader focus on the 3.50–3.99% bucket for the December 2026 year-over-year reading. Subdued energy and food prices, a stronger peso, and Banxico's policy stance supporting core inflation's return to the 2–4% target band have reinforced this positioning, consistent with consensus forecasts near 3.2–3.5%. Key swing factors include upcoming INEGI releases, potential shifts in U.S. demand or tariffs affecting imports, and volatility in global commodity markets that could push the outcome into adjacent 3.00–3.49% or 4.00–4.49% ranges before year-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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