RBI projections and recent data releases anchor trader sentiment around the 4.50%+ outcome for India’s 2026 annual CPI inflation, currently carrying a 75.5% implied probability. The central bank has lifted its FY27 forecast to 5.1% from prior estimates near 4.6%, citing elevated energy and food prices linked to Middle East tensions and a weaker monsoon outlook, while core inflation is expected near 4.4%. May 2026 CPI printed at 3.93%, up from 3.48% in April, reflecting sequential acceleration within the 2-6% target band. With policy rates held at 5.25% and upcoming releases plus commodity volatility as key swing factors, markets price in a high likelihood that the full-year average settles above 4.50% rather than reverting to the sub-3% levels seen earlier in 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено4,50%+ 71%
От 3,75% до 4,49% 14.8%
От 3,00% до 3,74% 11.8%
<0,75% 2.7%
$61,716 Объем
$61,716 Объем
<0,75%
3%
0,75% до 1,49%
1%
1,50% до 2,24%
2%
2,25% – 2,99%
2%
От 3,00% до 3,74%
8%
От 3,75% до 4,49%
15%
4,50%+
71%
4,50%+ 71%
От 3,75% до 4,49% 14.8%
От 3,00% до 3,74% 11.8%
<0,75% 2.7%
$61,716 Объем
$61,716 Объем
<0,75%
3%
0,75% до 1,49%
1%
1,50% до 2,24%
2%
2,25% – 2,99%
2%
От 3,00% до 3,74%
8%
От 3,75% до 4,49%
15%
4,50%+
71%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...RBI projections and recent data releases anchor trader sentiment around the 4.50%+ outcome for India’s 2026 annual CPI inflation, currently carrying a 75.5% implied probability. The central bank has lifted its FY27 forecast to 5.1% from prior estimates near 4.6%, citing elevated energy and food prices linked to Middle East tensions and a weaker monsoon outlook, while core inflation is expected near 4.4%. May 2026 CPI printed at 3.93%, up from 3.48% in April, reflecting sequential acceleration within the 2-6% target band. With policy rates held at 5.25% and upcoming releases plus commodity volatility as key swing factors, markets price in a high likelihood that the full-year average settles above 4.50% rather than reverting to the sub-3% levels seen earlier in 2026.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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