Recent geopolitical tensions in West Asia, including the Iran conflict, have elevated crude oil and commodity prices, prompting the Reserve Bank of India to raise its FY2026-27 CPI inflation projection to 5.1% on June 5 from 4.6% previously, with quarterly paths reaching 5.9% in Q3. This outlook underpins the 73% market-implied probability on an annual 2026 print at or above 4.50%, as traders price in persistent supply-side pressures despite May 2026 CPI holding at 3.93%. Lower-range outcomes remain discounted given resilient food inflation and limited evidence of rapid disinflation. Key near-term catalysts include the June CPI release on July 13 and the RBI's next policy review, where further revisions could hinge on monsoon performance and global energy markets.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado4,50%+ 65%
3,75% a 4,49% 14.8%
3,00% a 3,74% 11.8%
<0,75% 4.5%
$61,716 Vol.
$61,716 Vol.
12 jan 2027
<0,75%
5%
0,75% a 1,49%
1%
1,50% a 2,24%
10%
2,25% a 2,99%
2%
3,00% a 3,74%
18%
3,75% a 4,49%
15%
4,50%+
65%
4,50%+ 65%
3,75% a 4,49% 14.8%
3,00% a 3,74% 11.8%
<0,75% 4.5%
$61,716 Vol.
$61,716 Vol.
12 jan 2027
<0,75%
$838 Vol.
5%
0,75% a 1,49%
$558 Vol.
1%
1,50% a 2,24%
$447 Vol.
10%
2,25% a 2,99%
$24,140 Vol.
2%
3,00% a 3,74%
$768 Vol.
18%
3,75% a 4,49%
$23,426 Vol.
15%
4,50%+
$11,538 Vol.
65%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent geopolitical tensions in West Asia, including the Iran conflict, have elevated crude oil and commodity prices, prompting the Reserve Bank of India to raise its FY2026-27 CPI inflation projection to 5.1% on June 5 from 4.6% previously, with quarterly paths reaching 5.9% in Q3. This outlook underpins the 73% market-implied probability on an annual 2026 print at or above 4.50%, as traders price in persistent supply-side pressures despite May 2026 CPI holding at 3.93%. Lower-range outcomes remain discounted given resilient food inflation and limited evidence of rapid disinflation. Key near-term catalysts include the June CPI release on July 13 and the RBI's next policy review, where further revisions could hinge on monsoon performance and global energy markets.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Mercado Aberto: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$61,716Data de Término
12 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdfRecent geopolitical tensions in West Asia, including the Iran conflict, have elevated crude oil and commodity prices, prompting the Reserve Bank of India to raise its FY2026-27 CPI inflation projection to 5.1% on June 5 from 4.6% previously, with quarterly paths reaching 5.9% in Q3. This outlook underpins the 73% market-implied probability on an annual 2026 print at or above 4.50%, as traders price in persistent supply-side pressures despite May 2026 CPI holding at 3.93%. Lower-range outcomes remain discounted given resilient food inflation and limited evidence of rapid disinflation. Key near-term catalysts include the June CPI release on July 13 and the RBI's next policy review, where further revisions could hinge on monsoon performance and global energy markets.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Volume
$61,716Data de Término
12 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent geopolitical tensions in West Asia, including the Iran conflict, have elevated crude oil and commodity prices, prompting the Reserve Bank of India to raise its FY2026-27 CPI inflation projection to 5.1% on June 5 from 4.6% previously, with quarterly paths reaching 5.9% in Q3. This outlook underpins the 73% market-implied probability on an annual 2026 print at or above 4.50%, as traders price in persistent supply-side pressures despite May 2026 CPI holding at 3.93%. Lower-range outcomes remain discounted given resilient food inflation and limited evidence of rapid disinflation. Key near-term catalysts include the June CPI release on July 13 and the RBI's next policy review, where further revisions could hinge on monsoon performance and global energy markets.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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