Canada's Liberal government under Prime Minister Mark Carney consolidated a majority in the House of Commons through by-election victories and floor crossings by April 2026, following the April 2025 federal election that initially produced a minority. This stability removes any immediate procedural pressure for dissolution, as the Canada Elections Act sets the next fixed polling date for October 15, 2029, and a majority allows the government to pass supply bills and maintain confidence without opposition support. Traders assign near-certain probability to no election call by June 30 because no credible catalyst—such as a lost confidence vote or strategic early dissolution—has emerged in recent weeks. A shift would require rapid deterioration in parliamentary arithmetic or unforeseen internal Liberal developments within the narrow window, both viewed as remote given current seat distribution and legislative calendar.