The US Constitution requires House members to face voters every two years, establishing a fixed schedule for midterm elections that has held without interruption since the nation's founding. Traders assign a 96.9% probability to the 2026 contests occurring on schedule because no legislation, executive action, or court ruling has emerged to alter or delay the November timeline, and historical precedent shows elections proceed even during major crises. This skin-in-the-game consensus aligns with base rates for federal voting cycles. Late developments such as a declared national emergency, widespread infrastructure failure, or unforeseen legal challenges could theoretically shift timing, though such outcomes remain remote given institutional checks and the absence of current indicators.