Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority of roughly 218-214 seats heading into the final weeks before the November 2026 midterms. Trader consensus at 98.7% on “No” reflects the structural barriers to any pre-election flip: vacancies from deaths or resignations have occurred but have not produced a net Democratic gain sufficient to reach 218 seats, and special elections capable of shifting control remain rare in such a short window. Historical precedent shows mid-term control changes through these mechanisms are exceptionally uncommon. Realistic scenarios that could still move odds include clustered Republican vacancies in competitive districts followed by Democratic special-election victories, or procedural disruptions that prevent the chamber from organizing, though both would require multiple rapid, low-probability events before Election Day.