**Traders assign an 88% probability that Otzma Yehudit will not be effectively banned** from Israel's October 27 Knesset election because the disqualification petition filed by the Democrats party on September 14 lacks strong legal grounding and faces limited prospects at the Central Elections Committee and Supreme Court. The petition alleges racism and erosion of democratic institutions, but the Attorney General has indicated no legal basis for barring the list, and similar past efforts against parties with broad Jewish voter support have failed. Otzma Yehudit remains active, submitting its own petitions that contributed to recent committee votes disqualifying Ra'am, the Joint List, and candidates like Ofer Cassif and Sami Abu Shehadeh. These outcomes, subject to High Court review, reflect partisan maneuvering ahead of the vote rather than a viable path to exclude Ben-Gvir's slate. Upcoming committee hearings and court rulings within the short pre-election window are unlikely to alter this assessment absent major new evidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated12% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 27, 2026
12% chance
NEW
NEW
Oct 27, 2026
Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Otzma Yehudit is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Otzma Yehudit from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: Otzma Yehudit’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; Otzma Yehudit being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for Otzma Yehudit’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Otzma Yehudit is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by Otzma Yehudit to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of Otzma Yehudit will not qualify, provided Otzma Yehudit’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Otzma Yehudit, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and Otzma Yehudit; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Traders assign an 88% probability that Otzma Yehudit will not be effectively banned** from Israel's October 27 Knesset election because the disqualification petition filed by the Democrats party on September 14 lacks strong legal grounding and faces limited prospects at the Central Elections Committee and Supreme Court. The petition alleges racism and erosion of democratic institutions, but the Attorney General has indicated no legal basis for barring the list, and similar past efforts against parties with broad Jewish voter support have failed. Otzma Yehudit remains active, submitting its own petitions that contributed to recent committee votes disqualifying Ra'am, the Joint List, and candidates like Ofer Cassif and Sami Abu Shehadeh. These outcomes, subject to High Court review, reflect partisan maneuvering ahead of the vote rather than a viable path to exclude Ben-Gvir's slate. Upcoming committee hearings and court rulings within the short pre-election window are unlikely to alter this assessment absent major new evidence.
Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Otzma Yehudit is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Otzma Yehudit from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: Otzma Yehudit’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; Otzma Yehudit being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for Otzma Yehudit’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Otzma Yehudit is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by Otzma Yehudit to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of Otzma Yehudit will not qualify, provided Otzma Yehudit’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Otzma Yehudit, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and Otzma Yehudit; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Otzma Yehudit is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Otzma Yehudit from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: Otzma Yehudit’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; Otzma Yehudit being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for Otzma Yehudit’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Otzma Yehudit is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by Otzma Yehudit to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of Otzma Yehudit will not qualify, provided Otzma Yehudit’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Otzma Yehudit, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and Otzma Yehudit; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 23, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volume
$40End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Otzma Yehudit is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Otzma Yehudit from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: Otzma Yehudit’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; Otzma Yehudit being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for Otzma Yehudit’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Otzma Yehudit is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by Otzma Yehudit to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of Otzma Yehudit will not qualify, provided Otzma Yehudit’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Otzma Yehudit, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and Otzma Yehudit; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Traders assign an 88% probability that Otzma Yehudit will not be effectively banned** from Israel's October 27 Knesset election because the disqualification petition filed by the Democrats party on September 14 lacks strong legal grounding and faces limited prospects at the Central Elections Committee and Supreme Court. The petition alleges racism and erosion of democratic institutions, but the Attorney General has indicated no legal basis for barring the list, and similar past efforts against parties with broad Jewish voter support have failed. Otzma Yehudit remains active, submitting its own petitions that contributed to recent committee votes disqualifying Ra'am, the Joint List, and candidates like Ofer Cassif and Sami Abu Shehadeh. These outcomes, subject to High Court review, reflect partisan maneuvering ahead of the vote rather than a viable path to exclude Ben-Gvir's slate. Upcoming committee hearings and court rulings within the short pre-election window are unlikely to alter this assessment absent major new evidence.
Elections to the 26th Knesset are scheduled to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Otzma Yehudit is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Otzma Yehudit from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: Otzma Yehudit’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; Otzma Yehudit being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for Otzma Yehudit’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Otzma Yehudit is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by Otzma Yehudit to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of Otzma Yehudit will not qualify, provided Otzma Yehudit’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Otzma Yehudit, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and Otzma Yehudit; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Otzma Yehudit is effectively banned from participation in the 2026 Knesset election by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a ban means any official action by Israeli authorities that prevents Otzma Yehudit from contesting the 2026 Knesset election as a candidates’ list. This includes, but is not limited to: Otzma Yehudit’s candidates’ list being disqualified under Section 7A of Basic Law: The Knesset; being refused registration, removed from the ballot, or otherwise rendered ineligible to contest the election; Otzma Yehudit being forcibly dissolved or deregistered; or an official determination that votes cast for Otzma Yehudit’s list will not be counted or will be invalidated.
A decision of the Central Elections Committee will not by itself qualify. The disqualification must be final and operative for the 2026 Knesset election, meaning that it has been approved or upheld by the Supreme Court of Israel, or that the time for judicial review has expired without the decision being set aside. If the Supreme Court overturns, sets aside, or declines to approve the disqualification, or if Otzma Yehudit is otherwise reinstated and permitted to contest the election, this market will resolve to "No".
A decision by Otzma Yehudit to voluntarily withdraw from, boycott, or otherwise decline to contest the election will not qualify. The disqualification, withdrawal, arrest, or barring of individual candidates or officials of Otzma Yehudit will not qualify, provided Otzma Yehudit’s list remains eligible to contest the election.
Confirmation of a ban may come from an official announcement by the Israeli government, the Central Elections Committee, the Supreme Court of Israel, Otzma Yehudit, or an authorised representative thereof. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Confirmation must occur by October 27, 2026, 11:59 PM Israel time. If no such confirmation occurs by that time, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on official information from the Israeli government and Otzma Yehudit; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 27, 2026Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070be91...**Traders assign an 88% probability that Otzma Yehudit will not be effectively banned** from Israel's October 27 Knesset election because the disqualification petition filed by the Democrats party on September 14 lacks strong legal grounding and faces limited prospects at the Central Elections Committee and Supreme Court. The petition alleges racism and erosion of democratic institutions, but the Attorney General has indicated no legal basis for barring the list, and similar past efforts against parties with broad Jewish voter support have failed. Otzma Yehudit remains active, submitting its own petitions that contributed to recent committee votes disqualifying Ra'am, the Joint List, and candidates like Ofer Cassif and Sami Abu Shehadeh. These outcomes, subject to High Court review, reflect partisan maneuvering ahead of the vote rather than a viable path to exclude Ben-Gvir's slate. Upcoming committee hearings and court rulings within the short pre-election window are unlikely to alter this assessment absent major new evidence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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