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icon for Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner
World·Main Election

Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner

icon for Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner
World·Main Election

Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner

Gintautas Kindurys 44%

Ignotas Adomavičius 37%

Vladislav Kondratovič 27%

Viktor Voronin 21%

Polymarket
NEW

Gintautas Kindurys 44%

Ignotas Adomavičius 37%

Vladislav Kondratovič 27%

Viktor Voronin 21%

Polymarket
NEW
icon for Gintautas Kindurys

Gintautas Kindurys

$64 Vol.

44%

icon for Ignotas Adomavičius

Ignotas Adomavičius

$64 Vol.

37%

icon for Vladislav Kondratovič

Vladislav Kondratovič

$205 Vol.

27%

icon for Viktor Voronin

Viktor Voronin

$64 Vol.

21%

icon for Nikolajus Lebedevičius

Nikolajus Lebedevičius

$64 Vol.

18%

icon for Dalia Štraupaitė

Dalia Štraupaitė

$64 Vol.

13%

icon for Antanas Šakalis

Antanas Šakalis

$64 Vol.

11%

icon for Mėta Palauskaitė

Mėta Palauskaitė

$64 Vol.

9%

icon for Andrej Šildiajėv

Andrej Šildiajėv

$64 Vol.

8%

icon for Giedrius Dainys

Giedrius Dainys

$39 Vol.

7%

icon for Maksimas Paukštė

Maksimas Paukštė

$64 Vol.

7%

An early election for a member of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania in the single-member Northern Nalšia constituency (No. 52) is scheduled to take place on November 8, 2026. The by-election was triggered by the death of the incumbent member, Jevgenij Šuklin, on May 28, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the election in the Northern Nalšia constituency. If no candidate receives the required share of the vote in the first round, this market will resolve according to the result of the second round. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Lithuania (Vyriausioji rinkimų komisija, https://www.vrk.lt/).The 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election, scheduled for 8 November with a possible runoff on 22 November, follows the sudden death of incumbent Jevgenij Šuklin of the Liberals' Movement, who had won the seat in 2024. Gintautas Kindurys of the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union holds the narrowest lead in trader pricing after topping the 2024 first-round vote share in the constituency, though he fell short in the second round against Šuklin. A crowded field of more than two dozen candidates, including Mėta Palauskaitė for the Liberals, Vladislav Kondratovič for the Social Democrats, and several smaller-party or independent entrants, keeps implied probabilities clustered near even odds for most contenders. Lithuanian single-member district rules, which require a majority for outright victory or advance the top two to a runoff, sustain the tight contest absent major late endorsements, turnout shifts among rural or regional voters, or clearer polling signals on second-round transfers.

An early election for a member of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania in the single-member Northern Nalšia constituency (No. 52) is scheduled to take place on November 8, 2026. The by-election was triggered by the death of the incumbent member, Jevgenij Šuklin, on May 28, 2026.

This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the election in the Northern Nalšia constituency.

If no candidate receives the required share of the vote in the first round, this market will resolve according to the result of the second round.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Lithuania (Vyriausioji rinkimų komisija, https://www.vrk.lt/).An early election for a member of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania in the single-member Northern Nalšia constituency (No. 52) is scheduled to take place on November 8, 2026. The by-election was triggered by the death of the incumbent member, Jevgenij Šuklin, on May 28, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the election in the Northern Nalšia constituency. If no candidate receives the required share of the vote in the first round, this market will resolve according to the result of the second round. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Lithuania (Vyriausioji rinkimų komisija, https://www.vrk.lt/).
Volume
$820
End Date
Nov 8, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 10:07 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47de9d...
An early election for a member of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania in the single-member Northern Nalšia constituency (No. 52) is scheduled to take place on November 8, 2026. The by-election was triggered by the death of the incumbent member, Jevgenij Šuklin, on May 28, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the election in the Northern Nalšia constituency. If no candidate receives the required share of the vote in the first round, this market will resolve according to the result of the second round. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Lithuania (Vyriausioji rinkimų komisija, https://www.vrk.lt/).The 2026 Northern Nalšia district by-election, scheduled for 8 November with a possible runoff on 22 November, follows the sudden death of incumbent Jevgenij Šuklin of the Liberals' Movement, who had won the seat in 2024. Gintautas Kindurys of the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union holds the narrowest lead in trader pricing after topping the 2024 first-round vote share in the constituency, though he fell short in the second round against Šuklin. A crowded field of more than two dozen candidates, including Mėta Palauskaitė for the Liberals, Vladislav Kondratovič for the Social Democrats, and several smaller-party or independent entrants, keeps implied probabilities clustered near even odds for most contenders. Lithuanian single-member district rules, which require a majority for outright victory or advance the top two to a runoff, sustain the tight contest absent major late endorsements, turnout shifts among rural or regional voters, or clearer polling signals on second-round transfers.

An early election for a member of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania in the single-member Northern Nalšia constituency (No. 52) is scheduled to take place on November 8, 2026. The by-election was triggered by the death of the incumbent member, Jevgenij Šuklin, on May 28, 2026.

This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the election in the Northern Nalšia constituency.

If no candidate receives the required share of the vote in the first round, this market will resolve according to the result of the second round.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Lithuania (Vyriausioji rinkimų komisija, https://www.vrk.lt/).An early election for a member of the Seimas of the Republic of Lithuania in the single-member Northern Nalšia constituency (No. 52) is scheduled to take place on November 8, 2026. The by-election was triggered by the death of the incumbent member, Jevgenij Šuklin, on May 28, 2026. This market will resolve to the candidate who wins the election in the Northern Nalšia constituency. If no candidate receives the required share of the vote in the first round, this market will resolve according to the result of the second round. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on the official results as reported by the Central Electoral Commission of the Republic of Lithuania (Vyriausioji rinkimų komisija, https://www.vrk.lt/).
Volume
$820
End Date
Nov 8, 2026
Market Opened
Sep 23, 2026, 10:07 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47de9d...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ignotas Adomavičius" at 69%, followed by "Gintautas Kindurys" at 54%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 69¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 23, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner" is "Ignotas Adomavičius" at 69%, meaning the market assigns a 69% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Gintautas Kindurys" at 54%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Northern Nalšia District By-Election Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.