Doug Ford maintains firm control over the Ontario Progressive Conservative Party as premier, with recent cabinet continuity and a September 2026 shuffle emphasizing stability amid U.S. trade tensions. Polling through mid-September shows the PCs leading at 42 percent support and Ford's approval recovering to around 31 percent, consistent with his public statements planning a fourth term and internal data projecting strong re-election prospects. No verified caucus revolt, formal challenge, or resignation signals have emerged in the past 30 days, supporting trader consensus on low near-term exit risk. Late developments such as a major ethics scandal, health event, or abrupt internal pressure could still shift dynamics before year-end, though current evidence indicates limited momentum for such changes.