Doug Ford secured a third consecutive majority government for Ontario’s Progressive Conservatives in the February 2025 snap election and has publicly affirmed his intent to seek a fourth mandate. Recent polling shows the PCs maintaining a lead despite periodic dips in personal popularity, while internal party discussions remain focused on policy priorities such as energy infrastructure rather than leadership transition. Speculation about potential successors exists in media and among some caucus members, yet no formal challenge or caucus revolt has materialized. A July 2026 expense scandal prompted one ministerial resignation and repayment commitments, but it has not triggered broader calls for Ford’s removal. Traders therefore assign an implied 78% probability that he will remain leader through year-end, reflecting his entrenched position and the absence of imminent institutional or electoral pressures.