Apple’s efforts to source DRAM from China’s CXMT face steep regulatory and capacity barriers that explain the 76% market-implied probability against purchases occurring in 2026. The company has lobbied the Trump administration since June for assurances that CXMT, listed on the Pentagon’s 1260H military companies roster, will avoid the stricter Commerce Entity List, while testing chips for potential limited use in China-market devices amid AI-driven shortages. However, CXMT’s fabs operate near 95% utilization with output largely committed through 2027, leaving minimal room for new large-scale customers, and Beijing appears focused on domestic needs. Political opposition from U.S. lawmakers and the risk of sudden licensing requirements further reduce the likelihood of meaningful volume purchases before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated24% chance
$21,395 Vol.
$21,395 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
24% chance
$21,395 Vol.
$21,395 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple’s efforts to source DRAM from China’s CXMT face steep regulatory and capacity barriers that explain the 76% market-implied probability against purchases occurring in 2026. The company has lobbied the Trump administration since June for assurances that CXMT, listed on the Pentagon’s 1260H military companies roster, will avoid the stricter Commerce Entity List, while testing chips for potential limited use in China-market devices amid AI-driven shortages. However, CXMT’s fabs operate near 95% utilization with output largely committed through 2027, leaving minimal room for new large-scale customers, and Beijing appears focused on domestic needs. Political opposition from U.S. lawmakers and the risk of sudden licensing requirements further reduce the likelihood of meaningful volume purchases before year-end.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volume
$21,395End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple’s efforts to source DRAM from China’s CXMT face steep regulatory and capacity barriers that explain the 76% market-implied probability against purchases occurring in 2026. The company has lobbied the Trump administration since June for assurances that CXMT, listed on the Pentagon’s 1260H military companies roster, will avoid the stricter Commerce Entity List, while testing chips for potential limited use in China-market devices amid AI-driven shortages. However, CXMT’s fabs operate near 95% utilization with output largely committed through 2027, leaving minimal room for new large-scale customers, and Beijing appears focused on domestic needs. Political opposition from U.S. lawmakers and the risk of sudden licensing requirements further reduce the likelihood of meaningful volume purchases before year-end.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$21,395End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s efforts to source DRAM from China’s CXMT face steep regulatory and capacity barriers that explain the 76% market-implied probability against purchases occurring in 2026. The company has lobbied the Trump administration since June for assurances that CXMT, listed on the Pentagon’s 1260H military companies roster, will avoid the stricter Commerce Entity List, while testing chips for potential limited use in China-market devices amid AI-driven shortages. However, CXMT’s fabs operate near 95% utilization with output largely committed through 2027, leaving minimal room for new large-scale customers, and Beijing appears focused on domestic needs. Political opposition from U.S. lawmakers and the risk of sudden licensing requirements further reduce the likelihood of meaningful volume purchases before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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