**Geopolitical and regulatory hurdles, amplified by CXMT’s placement on the Pentagon’s 1260H Chinese military companies list, are the main factors keeping the “No” outcome at 78.5% implied probability.** Apple has conducted technical qualification testing of CXMT LPDDR DRAM for iPhones and MacBooks intended for the China market and has lobbied the Trump administration for assurances against Entity List placement or other curbs. However, US lawmakers have warned of national-security risks, capacity remains constrained as CXMT prioritizes domestic customers such as Huawei and Xiaomi, and the supplier has declined Apple’s requests for discounted pricing. These barriers—combined with ongoing US-China tensions—have limited progress beyond exploratory talks and testing, leaving any meaningful 2026 commercial purchases uncertain despite the broader DRAM supply squeeze driven by AI demand.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated22% chance
$20,801 Vol.
$20,801 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
22% chance
$20,801 Vol.
$20,801 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Geopolitical and regulatory hurdles, amplified by CXMT’s placement on the Pentagon’s 1260H Chinese military companies list, are the main factors keeping the “No” outcome at 78.5% implied probability.**
Apple has conducted technical qualification testing of CXMT LPDDR DRAM for iPhones and MacBooks intended for the China market and has lobbied the Trump administration for assurances against Entity List placement or other curbs. However, US lawmakers have warned of national-security risks, capacity remains constrained as CXMT prioritizes domestic customers such as Huawei and Xiaomi, and the supplier has declined Apple’s requests for discounted pricing. These barriers—combined with ongoing US-China tensions—have limited progress beyond exploratory talks and testing, leaving any meaningful 2026 commercial purchases uncertain despite the broader DRAM supply squeeze driven by AI demand.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Volume
$20,801End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.**Geopolitical and regulatory hurdles, amplified by CXMT’s placement on the Pentagon’s 1260H Chinese military companies list, are the main factors keeping the “No” outcome at 78.5% implied probability.**
Apple has conducted technical qualification testing of CXMT LPDDR DRAM for iPhones and MacBooks intended for the China market and has lobbied the Trump administration for assurances against Entity List placement or other curbs. However, US lawmakers have warned of national-security risks, capacity remains constrained as CXMT prioritizes domestic customers such as Huawei and Xiaomi, and the supplier has declined Apple’s requests for discounted pricing. These barriers—combined with ongoing US-China tensions—have limited progress beyond exploratory talks and testing, leaving any meaningful 2026 commercial purchases uncertain despite the broader DRAM supply squeeze driven by AI demand.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$20,801End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Geopolitical and regulatory hurdles, amplified by CXMT’s placement on the Pentagon’s 1260H Chinese military companies list, are the main factors keeping the “No” outcome at 78.5% implied probability.** Apple has conducted technical qualification testing of CXMT LPDDR DRAM for iPhones and MacBooks intended for the China market and has lobbied the Trump administration for assurances against Entity List placement or other curbs. However, US lawmakers have warned of national-security risks, capacity remains constrained as CXMT prioritizes domestic customers such as Huawei and Xiaomi, and the supplier has declined Apple’s requests for discounted pricing. These barriers—combined with ongoing US-China tensions—have limited progress beyond exploratory talks and testing, leaving any meaningful 2026 commercial purchases uncertain despite the broader DRAM supply squeeze driven by AI demand.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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