OpenAI’s September 8 announcement of an AI-generated proof—using thousands of agents on an internal model more capable than GPT-6 Astra—has created a tight 52% “No” market on retraction by year-end. The company published a detailed write-up and Lean formalization showing a forced singularity in smooth Navier-Stokes flows, satisfying key Clay statements, while explicitly declining the Millennium Prize. However, the timing overlaps with parallel Euler-equation progress by Tristan Buckmaster and Levent Alpöge, sparking disputes over possible indirect data influence and credit. Independent mathematicians are now scrutinizing the public repository, with any discovered gaps in the vortex construction or formalization likely to trigger retraction pressure before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated48% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
48% chance
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s September 8 announcement of an AI-generated proof—using thousands of agents on an internal model more capable than GPT-6 Astra—has created a tight 52% “No” market on retraction by year-end. The company published a detailed write-up and Lean formalization showing a forced singularity in smooth Navier-Stokes flows, satisfying key Clay statements, while explicitly declining the Millennium Prize. However, the timing overlaps with parallel Euler-equation progress by Tristan Buckmaster and Levent Alpöge, sparking disputes over possible indirect data influence and credit. Independent mathematicians are now scrutinizing the public repository, with any discovered gaps in the vortex construction or formalization likely to trigger retraction pressure before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.OpenAI’s September 8 announcement of an AI-generated proof—using thousands of agents on an internal model more capable than GPT-6 Astra—has created a tight 52% “No” market on retraction by year-end. The company published a detailed write-up and Lean formalization showing a forced singularity in smooth Navier-Stokes flows, satisfying key Clay statements, while explicitly declining the Millennium Prize. However, the timing overlaps with parallel Euler-equation progress by Tristan Buckmaster and Levent Alpöge, sparking disputes over possible indirect data influence and credit. Independent mathematicians are now scrutinizing the public repository, with any discovered gaps in the vortex construction or formalization likely to trigger retraction pressure before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI retracts its Navier-Stokes solution between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OpenAI's Navier-Stokes solution refers to the Navier-Stokes solution that OpenAI announced on September 8, 2026 (https://openai.com/index/navier-stokes-solution/).
A qualifying retraction occurs when OpenAI officially and publicly states that the published proof was incorrect or does not solve the Navier-Stokes problem. Statements by any other party will not qualify. Revisions that do not retract the correctness of the initial proof as a solution to the Navier-Stokes problem will not qualify. Statements about the authorship, credit, or attribution of the result, or about whether it qualifies for the Millennium Prize, will not on their own qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s September 8 announcement of an AI-generated proof—using thousands of agents on an internal model more capable than GPT-6 Astra—has created a tight 52% “No” market on retraction by year-end. The company published a detailed write-up and Lean formalization showing a forced singularity in smooth Navier-Stokes flows, satisfying key Clay statements, while explicitly declining the Millennium Prize. However, the timing overlaps with parallel Euler-equation progress by Tristan Buckmaster and Levent Alpöge, sparking disputes over possible indirect data influence and credit. Independent mathematicians are now scrutinizing the public repository, with any discovered gaps in the vortex construction or formalization likely to trigger retraction pressure before December 31.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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