Meta's Watermelon, the successor to the Muse Spark (Avocado) family released in April 2026, remains in training as of early September with no public launch date confirmed. Internal updates from Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang in July highlighted that the model had reached parity with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks despite still training and using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor. A late-August report cited internal documents targeting an October rollout for the model, which is expected to power consumer AI agents. The recent September 3 release of Muse Spark 1.3, which narrowed gaps with Anthropic and OpenAI systems in coding and agentic tasks, underscores Meta's iterative progress amid heavy infrastructure spending. Traders are weighing these verified capability signals and timeline hints against typical frontier model delays and the lack of independent benchmarks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
14%
October 31
62%
November 30
75%
$60 Vol.
September 30
$20 Vol.
14%
October 31
$0 Vol.
62%
November 30
$40 Vol.
75%
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's Watermelon, the successor to the Muse Spark (Avocado) family released in April 2026, remains in training as of early September with no public launch date confirmed. Internal updates from Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang in July highlighted that the model had reached parity with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks despite still training and using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor. A late-August report cited internal documents targeting an October rollout for the model, which is expected to power consumer AI agents. The recent September 3 release of Muse Spark 1.3, which narrowed gaps with Anthropic and OpenAI systems in coding and agentic tasks, underscores Meta's iterative progress amid heavy infrastructure spending. Traders are weighing these verified capability signals and timeline hints against typical frontier model delays and the lack of independent benchmarks.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
Volume
$60End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Meta's Watermelon, the successor to the Muse Spark (Avocado) family released in April 2026, remains in training as of early September with no public launch date confirmed. Internal updates from Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang in July highlighted that the model had reached parity with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks despite still training and using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor. A late-August report cited internal documents targeting an October rollout for the model, which is expected to power consumer AI agents. The recent September 3 release of Muse Spark 1.3, which narrowed gaps with Anthropic and OpenAI systems in coding and agentic tasks, underscores Meta's iterative progress amid heavy infrastructure spending. Traders are weighing these verified capability signals and timeline hints against typical frontier model delays and the lack of independent benchmarks.
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3). Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Meta, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$60End Date
Nov 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Meta's Watermelon, the successor to the Muse Spark (Avocado) family released in April 2026, remains in training as of early September with no public launch date confirmed. Internal updates from Chief AI Officer Alexandr Wang in July highlighted that the model had reached parity with OpenAI's GPT-5.5 on key benchmarks despite still training and using roughly 10x the compute of its predecessor. A late-August report cited internal documents targeting an October rollout for the model, which is expected to power consumer AI agents. The recent September 3 release of Muse Spark 1.3, which narrowed gaps with Anthropic and OpenAI systems in coding and agentic tasks, underscores Meta's iterative progress amid heavy infrastructure spending. Traders are weighing these verified capability signals and timeline hints against typical frontier model delays and the lack of independent benchmarks.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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