Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly 10 days—pointing to a mid-September target around the 12th—serves as the dominant catalyst shaping trader consensus on the Polymarket. This follows the August 12 release of the smaller 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6 and incorporates supplemental training on unique SpaceX data for improved real-world engineering performance. Market-implied odds remain tightly clustered across September 10–18 dates because xAI timelines have historically slipped even after founder updates, while competitive pressure from other labs adds uncertainty. Traders are monitoring for official model ID, benchmarks, or API availability that could confirm or shift the window before month-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSeptember 18 43%
September 10 42%
September 25 42%
September 16 42%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
41%
September 10
42%
September 11
40%
September 12
17%
September 13
22%
September 14
39%
September 15
41%
September 16
42%
September 17
41%
September 18
43%
September 19
38%
September 20
42%
September 21
40%
September 22
39%
September 23
42%
September 24
39%
September 25
42%
September 26
38%
September 27
39%
September 28
39%
September 29
39%
September 30
39%
No release by September 30
38%
September 18 43%
September 10 42%
September 25 42%
September 16 42%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
On or prior to September 9
$0 Vol.
41%
September 10
$0 Vol.
42%
September 11
$0 Vol.
40%
September 12
$317 Vol.
17%
September 13
$55 Vol.
22%
September 14
$0 Vol.
39%
September 15
$0 Vol.
41%
September 16
$0 Vol.
42%
September 17
$0 Vol.
41%
September 18
$0 Vol.
43%
September 19
$0 Vol.
38%
September 20
$0 Vol.
42%
September 21
$0 Vol.
40%
September 22
$0 Vol.
39%
September 23
$0 Vol.
42%
September 24
$0 Vol.
39%
September 25
$0 Vol.
42%
September 26
$0 Vol.
38%
September 27
$0 Vol.
39%
September 28
$0 Vol.
39%
September 29
$0 Vol.
39%
September 30
$0 Vol.
39%
No release by September 30
$0 Vol.
38%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly 10 days—pointing to a mid-September target around the 12th—serves as the dominant catalyst shaping trader consensus on the Polymarket. This follows the August 12 release of the smaller 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6 and incorporates supplemental training on unique SpaceX data for improved real-world engineering performance. Market-implied odds remain tightly clustered across September 10–18 dates because xAI timelines have historically slipped even after founder updates, while competitive pressure from other labs adds uncertainty. Traders are monitoring for official model ID, benchmarks, or API availability that could confirm or shift the window before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ET
Volume
$372End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly 10 days—pointing to a mid-September target around the 12th—serves as the dominant catalyst shaping trader consensus on the Polymarket. This follows the August 12 release of the smaller 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6 and incorporates supplemental training on unique SpaceX data for improved real-world engineering performance. Market-implied odds remain tightly clustered across September 10–18 dates because xAI timelines have historically slipped even after founder updates, while competitive pressure from other labs adds uncertainty. Traders are monitoring for official model ID, benchmarks, or API availability that could confirm or shift the window before month-end resolution.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.7+) is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.7 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or grok-4.6-high would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.7 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.7, such as Grok 4.6 (released August 12, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$372End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 8:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s September 2 announcement that Grok 4.7 would launch in roughly 10 days—pointing to a mid-September target around the 12th—serves as the dominant catalyst shaping trader consensus on the Polymarket. This follows the August 12 release of the smaller 1.5-trillion-parameter Grok 4.6 and incorporates supplemental training on unique SpaceX data for improved real-world engineering performance. Market-implied odds remain tightly clustered across September 10–18 dates because xAI timelines have historically slipped even after founder updates, while competitive pressure from other labs adds uncertainty. Traders are monitoring for official model ID, benchmarks, or API availability that could confirm or shift the window before month-end resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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