Recent August incidents, including three separate outages on August 24 alone affecting Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, Mythos 5 and related services across claude.ai, the API, Claude Code and Cowork, have highlighted persistent infrastructure strain from surging demand. Anthropic’s status page shows elevated errors and degraded performance recurring throughout the month, with 13 documented outage days by late August amid rapid model scaling and agentic workloads. Traders see these patterns—coupled with 99.6% uptime masking frequent partial disruptions—as pointing to continued moderate downtime in September, where 8-13 days emerges as the consensus range due to similar capacity pressures rather than full stabilization or major escalation. No major September-specific catalysts have shifted this view yet.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated8-10 34%
11-13 27%
5-7 24%
14+ 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<5
4%
5-7
24%
8-10
34%
11-13
27%
14+
7%
8-10 34%
11-13 27%
5-7 24%
14+ 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
<5
$0 Vol.
4%
5-7
$5 Vol.
24%
8-10
$5 Vol.
34%
11-13
$5 Vol.
27%
14+
$93 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent August incidents, including three separate outages on August 24 alone affecting Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, Mythos 5 and related services across claude.ai, the API, Claude Code and Cowork, have highlighted persistent infrastructure strain from surging demand. Anthropic’s status page shows elevated errors and degraded performance recurring throughout the month, with 13 documented outage days by late August amid rapid model scaling and agentic workloads. Traders see these patterns—coupled with 99.6% uptime masking frequent partial disruptions—as pointing to continued moderate downtime in September, where 8-13 days emerges as the consensus range due to similar capacity pressures rather than full stabilization or major escalation. No major September-specific catalysts have shifted this view yet.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ET
Volume
$108End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Recent August incidents, including three separate outages on August 24 alone affecting Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, Mythos 5 and related services across claude.ai, the API, Claude Code and Cowork, have highlighted persistent infrastructure strain from surging demand. Anthropic’s status page shows elevated errors and degraded performance recurring throughout the month, with 13 documented outage days by late August amid rapid model scaling and agentic workloads. Traders see these patterns—coupled with 99.6% uptime masking frequent partial disruptions—as pointing to continued moderate downtime in September, where 8-13 days emerges as the consensus range due to similar capacity pressures rather than full stabilization or major escalation. No major September-specific catalysts have shifted this view yet.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in September 2026 during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days that have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day of the specified month is finalized. If the final day of the specified month has not been finalized by the end of the 7th calendar date after the specified month (ET), this market will resolve based on the days that have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Volume
$108End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 6:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent August incidents, including three separate outages on August 24 alone affecting Claude Opus 5, Fable 5, Mythos 5 and related services across claude.ai, the API, Claude Code and Cowork, have highlighted persistent infrastructure strain from surging demand. Anthropic’s status page shows elevated errors and degraded performance recurring throughout the month, with 13 documented outage days by late August amid rapid model scaling and agentic workloads. Traders see these patterns—coupled with 99.6% uptime masking frequent partial disruptions—as pointing to continued moderate downtime in September, where 8-13 days emerges as the consensus range due to similar capacity pressures rather than full stabilization or major escalation. No major September-specific catalysts have shifted this view yet.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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