Recent delays in Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro launch, originally targeted for June after its May I/O announcement and then shifted to July, have left the flagship large language model still in partner testing as of mid-August 2026. Traders see this pattern of tweaks for improved agentic performance and reasoning as the main driver behind the close spread between a September release and no release by month-end. Google has shipped lighter Flash variants instead while confirming Gemini 4 training has started, underscoring internal prioritization and competitive pressure from rivals like OpenAI and Anthropic. Key swing factors include any official confirmation of readiness or further slips before key developer events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNo release by September 30 30%
September 10 27%
September 29 18%
September 23 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
On or prior to September 1
11%
September 2
15%
September 3
9%
September 4
11%
September 5
14%
September 6
11%
September 7
13%
September 8
14%
September 9
14%
September 10
27%
September 11
13%
September 12
14%
September 13
14%
September 14
14%
September 15
13%
September 16
14%
September 17
14%
September 18
14%
September 19
13%
September 20
15%
September 21
11%
September 22
13%
September 23
17%
September 24
14%
September 25
10%
September 26
15%
September 27
14%
September 28
14%
September 29
18%
September 30
13%
No release by September 30
30%
No release by September 30 30%
September 10 27%
September 29 18%
September 23 17%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
On or prior to September 1
$11 Vol.
11%
September 2
$8 Vol.
15%
September 3
$8 Vol.
9%
September 4
$8 Vol.
11%
September 5
$8 Vol.
14%
September 6
$8 Vol.
11%
September 7
$8 Vol.
13%
September 8
$8 Vol.
14%
September 9
$8 Vol.
14%
September 10
$8 Vol.
27%
September 11
$8 Vol.
13%
September 12
$8 Vol.
14%
September 13
$8 Vol.
14%
September 14
$8 Vol.
14%
September 15
$8 Vol.
13%
September 16
$8 Vol.
14%
September 17
$8 Vol.
14%
September 18
$8 Vol.
14%
September 19
$8 Vol.
13%
September 20
$8 Vol.
15%
September 21
$8 Vol.
11%
September 22
$8 Vol.
13%
September 23
$8 Vol.
17%
September 24
$8 Vol.
14%
September 25
$8 Vol.
10%
September 26
$8 Vol.
15%
September 27
$8 Vol.
14%
September 28
$8 Vol.
14%
September 29
$8 Vol.
18%
September 30
$8 Vol.
13%
No release by September 30
$16 Vol.
30%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent delays in Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro launch, originally targeted for June after its May I/O announcement and then shifted to July, have left the flagship large language model still in partner testing as of mid-August 2026. Traders see this pattern of tweaks for improved agentic performance and reasoning as the main driver behind the close spread between a September release and no release by month-end. Google has shipped lighter Flash variants instead while confirming Gemini 4 training has started, underscoring internal prioritization and competitive pressure from rivals like OpenAI and Anthropic. Key swing factors include any official confirmation of readiness or further slips before key developer events.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Volume
$259End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent delays in Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro launch, originally targeted for June after its May I/O announcement and then shifted to July, have left the flagship large language model still in partner testing as of mid-August 2026. Traders see this pattern of tweaks for improved agentic performance and reasoning as the main driver behind the close spread between a September release and no release by month-end. Google has shipped lighter Flash variants instead while confirming Gemini 4 training has started, underscoring internal prioritization and competitive pressure from rivals like OpenAI and Anthropic. Key swing factors include any official confirmation of readiness or further slips before key developer events.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$259End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent delays in Google's Gemini 3.5 Pro launch, originally targeted for June after its May I/O announcement and then shifted to July, have left the flagship large language model still in partner testing as of mid-August 2026. Traders see this pattern of tweaks for improved agentic performance and reasoning as the main driver behind the close spread between a September release and no release by month-end. Google has shipped lighter Flash variants instead while confirming Gemini 4 training has started, underscoring internal prioritization and competitive pressure from rivals like OpenAI and Anthropic. Key swing factors include any official confirmation of readiness or further slips before key developer events.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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