The tightly bunched market-implied odds around 12–18% for leaders like Nvidia, Microsoft, DeepSeek, Google, and OpenAI underscore intense uncertainty over which lab will claim second place in Text Arena Math benchmarks by late October. Traders are weighing recent model releases and capability demonstrations in mathematical reasoning, where factors such as specialized training datasets, chain-of-thought enhancements, and large language model scale continue to shift relative performance. Competitive positioning among frontier labs remains fluid, with no single player showing decisive separation on public leaderboards. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new model drops, benchmark updates, and developer conference announcements that could quickly alter sentiment before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMicrosoft 13%
SpaceXAI 12%
Google 11%
Moonshot 11%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Microsoft
13%
SpaceXAI
12%
11%
Moonshot
11%
Baidu
10%
Z.ai
10%
Nvidia
10%
Tencent
10%
MiniMax
9%
StepFun
9%
Meta
9%
OpenAI
8%
Xiaomi
8%
Anthropic
8%
Alibaba
7%
Meituan
7%
Amazon
7%
ByteDance
7%
DeepSeek
5%
Mistral
5%
Microsoft 13%
SpaceXAI 12%
Google 11%
Moonshot 11%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Microsoft
$27 Vol.
13%
SpaceXAI
$27 Vol.
12%
$27 Vol.
11%
Moonshot
$32 Vol.
11%
Baidu
$32 Vol.
10%
Z.ai
$27 Vol.
10%
Nvidia
$27 Vol.
10%
Tencent
$27 Vol.
10%
MiniMax
$32 Vol.
9%
StepFun
$27 Vol.
9%
Meta
$32 Vol.
9%
OpenAI
$22 Vol.
8%
Xiaomi
$32 Vol.
8%
Anthropic
$62 Vol.
8%
Alibaba
$62 Vol.
7%
Meituan
$72 Vol.
7%
Amazon
$96 Vol.
7%
ByteDance
$60 Vol.
7%
DeepSeek
$27 Vol.
5%
Mistral
$62 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The tightly bunched market-implied odds around 12–18% for leaders like Nvidia, Microsoft, DeepSeek, Google, and OpenAI underscore intense uncertainty over which lab will claim second place in Text Arena Math benchmarks by late October. Traders are weighing recent model releases and capability demonstrations in mathematical reasoning, where factors such as specialized training datasets, chain-of-thought enhancements, and large language model scale continue to shift relative performance. Competitive positioning among frontier labs remains fluid, with no single player showing decisive separation on public leaderboards. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new model drops, benchmark updates, and developer conference announcements that could quickly alter sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ET
Volume
$810End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The tightly bunched market-implied odds around 12–18% for leaders like Nvidia, Microsoft, DeepSeek, Google, and OpenAI underscore intense uncertainty over which lab will claim second place in Text Arena Math benchmarks by late October. Traders are weighing recent model releases and capability demonstrations in mathematical reasoning, where factors such as specialized training datasets, chain-of-thought enhancements, and large language model scale continue to shift relative performance. Competitive positioning among frontier labs remains fluid, with no single player showing decisive separation on public leaderboards. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new model drops, benchmark updates, and developer conference announcements that could quickly alter sentiment before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$810End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:53 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tightly bunched market-implied odds around 12–18% for leaders like Nvidia, Microsoft, DeepSeek, Google, and OpenAI underscore intense uncertainty over which lab will claim second place in Text Arena Math benchmarks by late October. Traders are weighing recent model releases and capability demonstrations in mathematical reasoning, where factors such as specialized training datasets, chain-of-thought enhancements, and large language model scale continue to shift relative performance. Competitive positioning among frontier labs remains fluid, with no single player showing decisive separation on public leaderboards. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new model drops, benchmark updates, and developer conference announcements that could quickly alter sentiment before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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