The closely matched probabilities around 45–50% for OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Mistral, and several Chinese labs reflect a fiercely competitive frontier where benchmark leadership shifts rapidly with each release cycle. Recent launches—including Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 topping agentic and coding evaluations, OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol holding strong on GPQA Diamond and overall composites, Meta’s Muse Spark 1.2 update, xAI’s Grok 4.6, and DeepSeek’s high-value V4-Flash—have kept relative standings fluid. Traders see limited differentiation through October because product timelines, safety constraints, and infrastructure scaling remain uncertain while gaps on key metrics like SWE-bench and Humanity’s Last Exam stay under a few percentage points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 41%
OpenAI 40%
Nvidia 38%
Z.ai 33%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
41%
OpenAI
40%
Nvidia
38%
Z.ai
33%
18%
StepFun
23%
Meituan
18%
Baidu
17%
Tencent
16%
MiniMax
15%
Moonshot
15%
Alibaba
14%
Xiaomi
14%
ByteDance
13%
DeepSeek
12%
Meta
12%
SpaceXAI
12%
Microsoft
12%
Mistral
3%
Amazon
3%
Thinky
49%
Anthropic 41%
OpenAI 40%
Nvidia 38%
Z.ai 33%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$0 Vol.
41%
OpenAI
$0 Vol.
40%
Nvidia
$0 Vol.
38%
Z.ai
$0 Vol.
33%
$33 Vol.
18%
StepFun
$0 Vol.
23%
Meituan
$0 Vol.
18%
Baidu
$0 Vol.
17%
Tencent
$0 Vol.
16%
MiniMax
$0 Vol.
15%
Moonshot
$0 Vol.
15%
Alibaba
$0 Vol.
14%
Xiaomi
$0 Vol.
14%
ByteDance
$0 Vol.
13%
DeepSeek
$0 Vol.
12%
Meta
$0 Vol.
12%
SpaceXAI
$0 Vol.
12%
Microsoft
$0 Vol.
12%
Mistral
$0 Vol.
3%
Amazon
$0 Vol.
3%
Thinky
$33 Vol.
49%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched probabilities around 45–50% for OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Mistral, and several Chinese labs reflect a fiercely competitive frontier where benchmark leadership shifts rapidly with each release cycle. Recent launches—including Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 topping agentic and coding evaluations, OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol holding strong on GPQA Diamond and overall composites, Meta’s Muse Spark 1.2 update, xAI’s Grok 4.6, and DeepSeek’s high-value V4-Flash—have kept relative standings fluid. Traders see limited differentiation through October because product timelines, safety constraints, and infrastructure scaling remain uncertain while gaps on key metrics like SWE-bench and Humanity’s Last Exam stay under a few percentage points.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Volume
$66End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".The closely matched probabilities around 45–50% for OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Mistral, and several Chinese labs reflect a fiercely competitive frontier where benchmark leadership shifts rapidly with each release cycle. Recent launches—including Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 topping agentic and coding evaluations, OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol holding strong on GPQA Diamond and overall composites, Meta’s Muse Spark 1.2 update, xAI’s Grok 4.6, and DeepSeek’s high-value V4-Flash—have kept relative standings fluid. Traders see limited differentiation through October because product timelines, safety constraints, and infrastructure scaling remain uncertain while gaps on key metrics like SWE-bench and Humanity’s Last Exam stay under a few percentage points.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$66End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities around 45–50% for OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Meta, Mistral, and several Chinese labs reflect a fiercely competitive frontier where benchmark leadership shifts rapidly with each release cycle. Recent launches—including Anthropic’s Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 topping agentic and coding evaluations, OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol holding strong on GPQA Diamond and overall composites, Meta’s Muse Spark 1.2 update, xAI’s Grok 4.6, and DeepSeek’s high-value V4-Flash—have kept relative standings fluid. Traders see limited differentiation through October because product timelines, safety constraints, and infrastructure scaling remain uncertain while gaps on key metrics like SWE-bench and Humanity’s Last Exam stay under a few percentage points.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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