Recent releases of advanced reasoning models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have kept Text Arena Math rankings fluid, with crowdsourced Elo scores showing tight clusters among frontier labs on competition-level problems. Anthropic's Claude variants hold early leads in math subcategories through extended chain-of-thought capabilities, yet OpenAI's GPT-5 iterations and Google's Gemini updates deliver comparable results on benchmarks like AIME and MATH, while Chinese labs such as Moonshot and Z.ai post strong open-weight showings. This parity, combined with rapid iteration cycles and benchmark saturation, leaves third place highly contested through October, hinging on the next wave of model drops and user voting shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
StepFun 35%
Microsoft 35%
Nvidia 35%
Google 30%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
StepFun
35%
Microsoft
35%
Nvidia
35%
30%
Z.ai
30%
Tencent
30%
Alibaba
23%
DeepSeek
28%
Xiaomi
27%
Meta
23%
Anthropic
22%
OpenAI
21%
Moonshot
22%
Amazon
13%
SpaceXAI
10%
MiniMax
8%
Meituan
8%
Bytedance
8%
Mistral
6%
Baidu
37%
StepFun 35%
Microsoft 35%
Nvidia 35%
Google 30%
NEW
NEW
Oct 31, 2026
StepFun
$10 Vol.
35%
Microsoft
$10 Vol.
35%
Nvidia
$10 Vol.
35%
$15 Vol.
30%
Z.ai
$39 Vol.
30%
Tencent
$39 Vol.
30%
Alibaba
$39 Vol.
23%
DeepSeek
$39 Vol.
28%
Xiaomi
$39 Vol.
27%
Meta
$39 Vol.
23%
Anthropic
$39 Vol.
22%
OpenAI
$39 Vol.
21%
Moonshot
$49 Vol.
22%
Amazon
$39 Vol.
13%
SpaceXAI
$39 Vol.
10%
MiniMax
$78 Vol.
8%
Meituan
$78 Vol.
8%
Bytedance
$79 Vol.
8%
Mistral
$81 Vol.
6%
Baidu
$39 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent releases of advanced reasoning models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have kept Text Arena Math rankings fluid, with crowdsourced Elo scores showing tight clusters among frontier labs on competition-level problems. Anthropic's Claude variants hold early leads in math subcategories through extended chain-of-thought capabilities, yet OpenAI's GPT-5 iterations and Google's Gemini updates deliver comparable results on benchmarks like AIME and MATH, while Chinese labs such as Moonshot and Z.ai post strong open-weight showings. This parity, combined with rapid iteration cycles and benchmark saturation, leaves third place highly contested through October, hinging on the next wave of model drops and user voting shifts.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ET
Volume
$841End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Recent releases of advanced reasoning models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have kept Text Arena Math rankings fluid, with crowdsourced Elo scores showing tight clusters among frontier labs on competition-level problems. Anthropic's Claude variants hold early leads in math subcategories through extended chain-of-thought capabilities, yet OpenAI's GPT-5 iterations and Google's Gemini updates deliver comparable results on benchmarks like AIME and MATH, while Chinese labs such as Moonshot and Z.ai post strong open-weight showings. This parity, combined with rapid iteration cycles and benchmark saturation, leaves third place highly contested through October, hinging on the next wave of model drops and user voting shifts.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$841End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 7:54 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent releases of advanced reasoning models from Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have kept Text Arena Math rankings fluid, with crowdsourced Elo scores showing tight clusters among frontier labs on competition-level problems. Anthropic's Claude variants hold early leads in math subcategories through extended chain-of-thought capabilities, yet OpenAI's GPT-5 iterations and Google's Gemini updates deliver comparable results on benchmarks like AIME and MATH, while Chinese labs such as Moonshot and Z.ai post strong open-weight showings. This parity, combined with rapid iteration cycles and benchmark saturation, leaves third place highly contested through October, hinging on the next wave of model drops and user voting shifts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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