**OpenAI models have driven recent FrontierMath progress, with GPT-5.4 Pro eliciting the first AI solution to an open research problem in March 2026.** Epoch AI’s benchmark features hundreds of unpublished, research-level math problems that typically require expert mathematicians hours or days; tiers 1–3 now see top models solving over 40 percent, while the harder tier 4 set sits above 30 percent. Claude Opus 4.6 and Gemini variants remain competitive but trail on the most difficult problems. A June 2026 dataset update corrected errors and expanded tier 4, sharpening evaluation standards. Traders focus on the next verified solve of an open or tier-4 problem before the August 31 resolution window, with model releases, benchmark contamination risks, and independent verification serving as key swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
50%
September 30
53%
$20 Vol.
August 31
$20 Vol.
50%
September 30
$0 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.**OpenAI models have driven recent FrontierMath progress, with GPT-5.4 Pro eliciting the first AI solution to an open research problem in March 2026.** Epoch AI’s benchmark features hundreds of unpublished, research-level math problems that typically require expert mathematicians hours or days; tiers 1–3 now see top models solving over 40 percent, while the harder tier 4 set sits above 30 percent. Claude Opus 4.6 and Gemini variants remain competitive but trail on the most difficult problems. A June 2026 dataset update corrected errors and expanded tier 4, sharpening evaluation standards. Traders focus on the next verified solve of an open or tier-4 problem before the August 31 resolution window, with model releases, benchmark contamination risks, and independent verification serving as key swing factors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Volume
$20End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.**OpenAI models have driven recent FrontierMath progress, with GPT-5.4 Pro eliciting the first AI solution to an open research problem in March 2026.** Epoch AI’s benchmark features hundreds of unpublished, research-level math problems that typically require expert mathematicians hours or days; tiers 1–3 now see top models solving over 40 percent, while the harder tier 4 set sits above 30 percent. Claude Opus 4.6 and Gemini variants remain competitive but trail on the most difficult problems. A June 2026 dataset update corrected errors and expanded tier 4, sharpening evaluation standards. Traders focus on the next verified solve of an open or tier-4 problem before the August 31 resolution window, with model releases, benchmark contamination risks, and independent verification serving as key swing factors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Epoch AI marks at least one additional FrontierMath: Open Problems problem as “Solved,” or otherwise officially states that such a problem has been solved, between market creation and the specified date 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.
Any problems that Epoch AI already classified as solved before market issuance will not qualify for resolution. Only problems newly classified by Epoch AI as solved after market issuance may qualify. If Epoch AI adds new problems to FrontierMath: Open Problems after market creation, those problems will be considered for resolution.
This market will resolve solely based on Epoch AI’s classification or official determination that a qualifying problem has been solved, regardless of the degree of artificial intelligence involvement. A verifier-accepted submission, publicly posted solution, partial result, or third-party claim will not qualify on its own unless Epoch AI recognizes the problem as solved.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Epoch AI, including https://epoch.ai/frontiermath/open-problems.
Volume
$20End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**OpenAI models have driven recent FrontierMath progress, with GPT-5.4 Pro eliciting the first AI solution to an open research problem in March 2026.** Epoch AI’s benchmark features hundreds of unpublished, research-level math problems that typically require expert mathematicians hours or days; tiers 1–3 now see top models solving over 40 percent, while the harder tier 4 set sits above 30 percent. Claude Opus 4.6 and Gemini variants remain competitive but trail on the most difficult problems. A June 2026 dataset update corrected errors and expanded tier 4, sharpening evaluation standards. Traders focus on the next verified solve of an open or tier-4 problem before the August 31 resolution window, with model releases, benchmark contamination risks, and independent verification serving as key swing factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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