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icon for AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

icon for AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

89% tsansa
Polymarket

$103,431 Vol.

89% tsansa
Polymarket

$103,431 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Rapid gains in frontier AI reasoning capabilities explain the 79.5% market-implied odds for an AI model reaching 90% on FrontierMath before 2027. Top models have climbed from under 2% accuracy in late 2024 to 25-48% on Epoch AI’s tiers by mid-2026, driven by improved chain-of-thought, tool integration with code interpreters, and larger-scale training. Recent releases such as OpenAI’s o-series and GPT-5 variants, alongside Google’s Gemini updates, demonstrate accelerating progress on unpublished research-level problems. Traders expect continued scaling and architectural refinements through 2026 developer cycles to close the remaining gap, though benchmark updates and potential plateaus introduce residual uncertainty.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$103,431
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Rapid gains in frontier AI reasoning capabilities explain the 79.5% market-implied odds for an AI model reaching 90% on FrontierMath before 2027. Top models have climbed from under 2% accuracy in late 2024 to 25-48% on Epoch AI’s tiers by mid-2026, driven by improved chain-of-thought, tool integration with code interpreters, and larger-scale training. Recent releases such as OpenAI’s o-series and GPT-5 variants, alongside Google’s Gemini updates, demonstrate accelerating progress on unpublished research-level problems. Traders expect continued scaling and architectural refinements through 2026 developer cycles to close the remaining gap, though benchmark updates and potential plateaus introduce residual uncertainty.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$103,431
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Nov 12, 2025, 5:15 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng "Yes" o "No" shares batay sa kung naniniwala silang mangyayari ang event na ito. Ang kasalukuyang crowd-sourced probability ay 89% para sa "Yes." Halimbawa, kung ang "Yes" ay naka-presyo sa 89¢, ang market ay kolektibong nagtatakda ng 89% na tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" ay naka-generate ng $103.4K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Nov 12, 2025. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?," piliin lang kung naniniwala ka na ang sagot ay "Yes" o "No." Ang bawat panig ay may kasalukuyang presyo na sumasalamin sa implied probability ng market. Ilagay ang iyong halaga at i-click ang "Trade." Kung bibili ka ng "Yes" shares at na-resolve ang outcome bilang "Yes," nagbabayad ang bawat share ng $1. Kung na-resolve bilang "No," ang iyong "Yes" shares ay nagkakahalaga ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang probability para sa "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" ay 89% para sa "Yes." Ibig sabihin nito na kasalukuyang naniniwala ang Polymarket crowd na may 89% tsansa na mangyayari ang event na ito. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time batay sa actual trades, na nagbibigay ng patuloy na ina-update na signal kung ano ang inaasahan ng market na mangyayari.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.