OpenAI’s recent launch of GPT-6 Astra has fueled debate but not shifted trader consensus toward an official AGI declaration by year-end. President Greg Brockman called the model a potential marker of the AGI era and said he personally believes the threshold may have been crossed, citing strong performance on tasks like complex coding, math proofs, and agentic workflows. However, CEO Sam Altman has described AGI as a poorly defined term, and independent evaluations show lower scores on key benchmarks such as ARC-AGI-3 under neutral conditions. Prior safety pauses, internal timelines targeting automated researchers later in 2026 or 2028, and OpenAI’s own charter definition of outperforming humans at most economically valuable work all contribute to the 75% market-implied probability of no announcement before 2027. Upcoming capability disclosures and benchmark scrutiny remain key near-term catalysts.