Massive capital expenditures by hyperscalers continue to outpace monetization, fueling trader caution around an AI bubble. In early June 2026, Ray Dalio highlighted how the shift from wealth creation to realized returns could trigger a correction, echoing earlier warnings from economists and investors about trillions in data-center spending against OpenAI's roughly $25 billion annualized revenue and persistent losses. Competitive dynamics among OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft intensify pressure, with enterprise adoption lagging behind infrastructure buildouts and benchmarks showing limited productivity gains so far. Upcoming IPO filings for major AI labs could serve as key sentiment tests, while any acceleration in regulatory scrutiny or disappointing earnings might shift implied probabilities on timing of a burst.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa bulle de l'IA a éclaté par... ?
$2,873,478 Vol.
31 décembre 2026
26%
$2,873,478 Vol.
31 décembre 2026
26%
For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 19, 2025, 7:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have experienced an industry downturn once at least three of the following events have occurred within 90 days of this market's specified timeframe:
- NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
- iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) closing stock price is down 40% from its all-time high.
- OpenAI, Inc. or Anthropic PBC declares bankruptcy.
- OpenAI, Inc. is acquired.
- H100 rental price falls to $1.00 or lower for five consecutive days, as shown on the SiliconData Silicon Index at:
https://www.silicondata.com/products/silicon-index.
- Major AI Hardware Supplier Collapse: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM), ASML Holding N.V. (ASML), Broadcom Inc. (AVGO), Arista Networks, Inc. (ANET), or Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI), closing stock price is down 50% from its all-time high.
This market may resolve immediately once three conditions have been met within 90 days of the specified timeframe.
This market will not resolve to "Yes" until three conditions have been met, regardless of reporting of an industry downturn or similar claims.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the respective companies and listing exchanges; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Massive capital expenditures by hyperscalers continue to outpace monetization, fueling trader caution around an AI bubble. In early June 2026, Ray Dalio highlighted how the shift from wealth creation to realized returns could trigger a correction, echoing earlier warnings from economists and investors about trillions in data-center spending against OpenAI's roughly $25 billion annualized revenue and persistent losses. Competitive dynamics among OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft intensify pressure, with enterprise adoption lagging behind infrastructure buildouts and benchmarks showing limited productivity gains so far. Upcoming IPO filings for major AI labs could serve as key sentiment tests, while any acceleration in regulatory scrutiny or disappointing earnings might shift implied probabilities on timing of a burst.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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