Market icon
Tech·Big Tech

Which company has the best AI model end of May?

Market icon
Tech·Big Tech

Which company has the best AI model end of May?

Apr 30

May 31

Jun 30

Apr 30

May 31

Jun 30

Anthropic 77%

Google 31%

Mistral 23%

Amazon 22%

Polymarket
NEW

Anthropic 77%

Google 31%

Mistral 23%

Amazon 22%

Polymarket
NEW
Market icon

Anthropic

$20 Vol.

77%

Market icon

Google

$0 Vol.

31%

Market icon

Mistral

$0 Vol.

23%

Market icon

Amazon

$0 Vol.

22%

Market icon

DeepSeek

$0 Vol.

21%

Market icon

xAI

$0 Vol.

16%

Market icon

Microsoft

$0 Vol.

16%

Market icon

Z.ai

$0 Vol.

15%

Market icon

ByteDance

$0 Vol.

14%

Market icon

Meta

$0 Vol.

14%

Market icon

Moonshot

$0 Vol.

13%

Market icon

OpenAI

$0 Vol.

12%

Market icon

Alibaba

$0 Vol.

9%

Market icon

Meituan

$0 Vol.

9%

Market icon

Baidu

$0 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at a 74% implied probability to hold the top AI model by May 31, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6 and Mythos releases dominating benchmarks like SWE-Bench Pro (77.8% score, 20% ahead of GPT-5.4) and LMSYS Chatbot Arena. These large language models excel in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, bolstered by Anthropic's rapid scaling to $30B run-rate and infrastructure edge, positioning it far ahead in the competitive landscape against OpenAI, Google, and xAI. Challengers like Z.ai (GLM-5 series, open-sourced and beating GPT variants) at 25%, Microsoft (25.5%), Mistral (24%), and DeepSeek (23%) reflect credible threats from recent frontier releases, though gaps persist; watch for May announcements from Big Tech labs that could narrow the field before resolution.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$20
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Anthropic at a 74% implied probability to hold the top AI model by May 31, driven by its Claude Opus 4.6 and Mythos releases dominating benchmarks like SWE-Bench Pro (77.8% score, 20% ahead of GPT-5.4) and LMSYS Chatbot Arena. These large language models excel in coding, reasoning, and agentic tasks, bolstered by Anthropic's rapid scaling to $30B run-rate and infrastructure edge, positioning it far ahead in the competitive landscape against OpenAI, Google, and xAI. Challengers like Z.ai (GLM-5 series, open-sourced and beating GPT variants) at 25%, Microsoft (25.5%), Mistral (24%), and DeepSeek (23%) reflect credible threats from recent frontier releases, though gaps persist; watch for May announcements from Big Tech labs that could narrow the field before resolution.

This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.

Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.

Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$20
End Date
May 31, 2026
Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ranked primarily by their arena score at this market’s check time, with alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group used as a tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

Related

Market icon

Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?

26%
Market icon

Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

41%
Market icon

Will a dLLM be the top AI model before 2027?

11%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which company has the best AI model end of May?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Anthropic" at 78%, followed by "Google" at 31%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 78¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Which company has the best AI model end of May?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Apr 14, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Which company has the best AI model end of May?," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which company has the best AI model end of May?" is "Anthropic" at 78%, meaning the market assigns a 78% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Google" at 31%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which company has the best AI model end of May?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.