OpenAI’s September 1 blog post confirming that Astra, its next major large language model, has reached the company’s first “critical” cybersecurity capability threshold under the Preparedness Framework is the main driver behind the market’s heavy weighting toward an early-September release. The post stated that Astra can identify and exploit zero-day vulnerabilities without step-by-step human guidance, prompting additional safeguards and a temporary development pause after the July Hugging Face incident; OpenAI explicitly said it plans to make the model “available soon” with restricted advanced cyber features for select testers via Daybreak Blue. This official language, paired with resumed training workloads and benchmark outperformance versus GPT-5.6 Sol, has shifted trader consensus toward an imminent launch while leaving room for last-minute safety reviews or limited initial access that could push the date slightly later within September.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOpenAI's Astra released on...?
OpenAI's Astra released on...?
September 3 40.3%
No release by September 30 9%
On or prior to September 2 8.0%
September 13 5%
NEW
$21,338 Vol.
NEW
$21,338 Vol.
Sep 2, 2026
On or prior to September 2
26%
September 3
40%
September 4
2%
September 5
2%
September 6
2%
September 7
3%
September 8
3%
September 9
2%
September 10
2%
September 11
1%
September 12
1%
September 13
5%
September 14
1%
September 15
1%
September 16
1%
September 17
1%
September 18
1%
September 19
1%
September 20
1%
September 21
2%
September 22
1%
September 23
2%
September 24
2%
September 25
3%
September 26
2%
September 27
4%
September 28
3%
September 29
1%
September 30
1%
No release by September 30
9%
September 3 40.3%
No release by September 30 9%
On or prior to September 2 8.0%
September 13 5%
NEW
$21,338 Vol.
NEW
$21,338 Vol.
Sep 2, 2026
On or prior to September 2
$1,263 Vol.
26%
September 3
$1,330 Vol.
40%
September 4
$921 Vol.
2%
September 5
$526 Vol.
2%
September 6
$525 Vol.
2%
September 7
$520 Vol.
3%
September 8
$520 Vol.
3%
September 9
$520 Vol.
2%
September 10
$440 Vol.
2%
September 11
$733 Vol.
1%
September 12
$733 Vol.
1%
September 13
$657 Vol.
5%
September 14
$733 Vol.
1%
September 15
$950 Vol.
1%
September 16
$628 Vol.
1%
September 17
$452 Vol.
1%
September 18
$755 Vol.
1%
September 19
$755 Vol.
1%
September 20
$755 Vol.
1%
September 21
$462 Vol.
2%
September 22
$755 Vol.
1%
September 23
$462 Vol.
2%
September 24
$859 Vol.
2%
September 25
$462 Vol.
3%
September 26
$462 Vol.
2%
September 27
$939 Vol.
4%
September 28
$462 Vol.
3%
September 29
$755 Vol.
1%
September 30
$765 Vol.
1%
No release by September 30
$1,239 Vol.
9%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s September 1 blog post confirming that Astra, its next major large language model, has reached the company’s first “critical” cybersecurity capability threshold under the Preparedness Framework is the main driver behind the market’s heavy weighting toward an early-September release. The post stated that Astra can identify and exploit zero-day vulnerabilities without step-by-step human guidance, prompting additional safeguards and a temporary development pause after the July Hugging Face incident; OpenAI explicitly said it plans to make the model “available soon” with restricted advanced cyber features for select testers via Daybreak Blue. This official language, paired with resumed training workloads and benchmark outperformance versus GPT-5.6 Sol, has shifted trader consensus toward an imminent launch while leaving room for last-minute safety reviews or limited initial access that could push the date slightly later within September.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ET
Volume
$21,338End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.OpenAI’s September 1 blog post confirming that Astra, its next major large language model, has reached the company’s first “critical” cybersecurity capability threshold under the Preparedness Framework is the main driver behind the market’s heavy weighting toward an early-September release. The post stated that Astra can identify and exploit zero-day vulnerabilities without step-by-step human guidance, prompting additional safeguards and a temporary development pause after the July Hugging Face incident; OpenAI explicitly said it plans to make the model “available soon” with restricted advanced cyber features for select testers via Daybreak Blue. This official language, paired with resumed training workloads and benchmark outperformance versus GPT-5.6 Sol, has shifted trader consensus toward an imminent launch while leaving room for last-minute safety reviews or limited initial access that could push the date slightly later within September.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's "Astra" model, or a model confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement described above, is made available to the general public.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions) or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Products labeled as GPT-5.7, GPT-6, or similar will only count if they are confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement.
For this market to resolve according to a given date, the qualifying model (as defined above) must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$21,338End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Sep 1, 2026, 11:34 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s September 1 blog post confirming that Astra, its next major large language model, has reached the company’s first “critical” cybersecurity capability threshold under the Preparedness Framework is the main driver behind the market’s heavy weighting toward an early-September release. The post stated that Astra can identify and exploit zero-day vulnerabilities without step-by-step human guidance, prompting additional safeguards and a temporary development pause after the July Hugging Face incident; OpenAI explicitly said it plans to make the model “available soon” with restricted advanced cyber features for select testers via Daybreak Blue. This official language, paired with resumed training workloads and benchmark outperformance versus GPT-5.6 Sol, has shifted trader consensus toward an imminent launch while leaving room for last-minute safety reviews or limited initial access that could push the date slightly later within September.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions