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icon for Next Mythos-Class Model released on…?
Tech·AI

Next Mythos-Class Model released on…?

icon for Next Mythos-Class Model released on…?
Tech·AI

Next Mythos-Class Model released on…?

September 10 44%

September 27 44%

September 26 41%

September 18 33%

Polymarket
NEW

September 10 44%

September 27 44%

September 26 41%

September 18 33%

Polymarket
NEW

On or prior to August 25

$0 Vol.

22%

August 26

$0 Vol.

14%

August 27

$0 Vol.

19%

August 28

$0 Vol.

22%

August 29

$0 Vol.

8%

August 30

$0 Vol.

6%

August 31

$0 Vol.

22%

September 1

$0 Vol.

21%

September 2

$0 Vol.

22%

September 3

$0 Vol.

24%

September 4

$0 Vol.

22%

September 5

$0 Vol.

22%

September 6

$0 Vol.

16%

September 7

$0 Vol.

24%

September 8

$0 Vol.

23%

September 9

$0 Vol.

15%

September 10

$0 Vol.

44%

September 11

$0 Vol.

22%

September 12

$0 Vol.

22%

September 13

$0 Vol.

14%

September 14

$0 Vol.

24%

September 15

$0 Vol.

16%

September 16

$0 Vol.

22%

September 17

$0 Vol.

22%

September 18

$0 Vol.

33%

September 19

$0 Vol.

16%

September 20

$0 Vol.

23%

September 21

$0 Vol.

22%

September 22

$0 Vol.

15%

September 23

$0 Vol.

14%

September 24

$0 Vol.

26%

September 25

$0 Vol.

22%

September 26

$0 Vol.

41%

September 27

$0 Vol.

44%

September 28

$0 Vol.

22%

September 29

$0 Vol.

22%

September 30

$0 Vol.

15%

No release by September 30

$0 Vol.

22%

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Anthropic’s rapid cadence on Mythos-class frontier models, combined with its August 2026 internal “Model 2” disclosure, is positioning early September as the leading window for the next public release.** The company shipped its first widely available Mythos-tier model (Claude Fable 5, with the restricted Mythos 5 variant) on June 9, 2026, after earlier restricted previews, then restored broader access by early July following U.S. regulatory adjustments. Traders see the internal Model 2—described in Anthropic’s mid-August risk report as a modest but measurable improvement over Mythos 5 on coding, research, and agentic tasks—as evidence of ongoing training and evaluation progress that typically precedes a public rollout. This aligns with Anthropic’s pattern of iterating every 4–8 weeks on high-capability systems while refining safety classifiers for cybersecurity and biology risks. Market-implied odds cluster highest around September 1–3 (37% and 27%) and mid-September dates (25–26%), reflecting expectations of a near-term announcement once post-release monitoring and safeguards stabilize. Lower probabilities for late September or “no release by September 30” (around 15–22.5%) acknowledge that timelines can slip due to regulatory reviews, benchmark validation, or competitive timing against OpenAI and Google releases. The closely contested probabilities underscore trader caution around the exact public availability date for the next Mythos-class system.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public.

Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 7:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.**Anthropic’s rapid cadence on Mythos-class frontier models, combined with its August 2026 internal “Model 2” disclosure, is positioning early September as the leading window for the next public release.** The company shipped its first widely available Mythos-tier model (Claude Fable 5, with the restricted Mythos 5 variant) on June 9, 2026, after earlier restricted previews, then restored broader access by early July following U.S. regulatory adjustments. Traders see the internal Model 2—described in Anthropic’s mid-August risk report as a modest but measurable improvement over Mythos 5 on coding, research, and agentic tasks—as evidence of ongoing training and evaluation progress that typically precedes a public rollout. This aligns with Anthropic’s pattern of iterating every 4–8 weeks on high-capability systems while refining safety classifiers for cybersecurity and biology risks. Market-implied odds cluster highest around September 1–3 (37% and 27%) and mid-September dates (25–26%), reflecting expectations of a near-term announcement once post-release monitoring and safeguards stabilize. Lower probabilities for late September or “no release by September 30” (around 15–22.5%) acknowledge that timelines can slip due to regulatory reviews, benchmark validation, or competitive timing against OpenAI and Google releases. The closely contested probabilities underscore trader caution around the exact public availability date for the next Mythos-class system.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public.

Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution.

A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0
End Date
Sep 30, 2026
Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 7:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Mythos-class model is made available to the general public. Any model whose official name includes "Mythos," or that Anthropic officially describes as a "Mythos-class" model or similar, will qualify for this market's resolution. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Next Mythos-Class Model released on…?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 38 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "September 10" at 44%, followed by "September 27" at 44%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Next Mythos-Class Model released on…?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Aug 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Next Mythos-Class Model released on…?," browse the 38 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Next Mythos-Class Model released on…?" is "September 10" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "September 27" at 44%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Next Mythos-Class Model released on…?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.