Anthropic’s most recent Haiku-tier model, Claude Haiku 4.5, launched in October 2025 and remains the active low-cost option as of September 2026. The company has skipped Haiku refreshes aligned with Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, Sonnet 5, Opus 5, and the September 1 debut of frontier models Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, creating uncertainty around the next iteration’s timing. Traders price this pattern against Anthropic’s typical cadence of following flagship releases with a faster, cheaper variant optimized for coding, computer use, and agentic tasks. No official timeline, earnings commentary, or deprecation notice has emerged to accelerate expectations, though any API updates or developer conferences could shift near-term probabilities for October or December resolution dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Oct 15, 2026
October 15
27%
October 31
61%
December 31
53%
$9,539 Vol.
October 15
$241 Vol.
27%
October 31
$987 Vol.
61%
December 31
$4,559 Vol.
53%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s most recent Haiku-tier model, Claude Haiku 4.5, launched in October 2025 and remains the active low-cost option as of September 2026. The company has skipped Haiku refreshes aligned with Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, Sonnet 5, Opus 5, and the September 1 debut of frontier models Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, creating uncertainty around the next iteration’s timing. Traders price this pattern against Anthropic’s typical cadence of following flagship releases with a faster, cheaper variant optimized for coding, computer use, and agentic tasks. No official timeline, earnings commentary, or deprecation notice has emerged to accelerate expectations, though any API updates or developer conferences could shift near-term probabilities for October or December resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 9:07 AM ET
Volume
$9,539End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 9:07 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Anthropic’s most recent Haiku-tier model, Claude Haiku 4.5, launched in October 2025 and remains the active low-cost option as of September 2026. The company has skipped Haiku refreshes aligned with Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, Sonnet 5, Opus 5, and the September 1 debut of frontier models Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, creating uncertainty around the next iteration’s timing. Traders price this pattern against Anthropic’s typical cadence of following flagship releases with a faster, cheaper variant optimized for coding, computer use, and agentic tasks. No official timeline, earnings commentary, or deprecation notice has emerged to accelerate expectations, though any API updates or developer conferences could shift near-term probabilities for October or December resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Claude Haiku model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Claude Haiku refers to a model by Anthropic explicitly named Haiku. Qualifying models include Claude Haiku 4.6, Claude Haiku 5.0, Haiku 5, or any other Haiku variants. Models under any other name, such as Sonnet, Opus, Fable, or Mythos, will not qualify, unless the model is explicitly and officially named Haiku by Anthropic.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$9,539End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 9:07 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s most recent Haiku-tier model, Claude Haiku 4.5, launched in October 2025 and remains the active low-cost option as of September 2026. The company has skipped Haiku refreshes aligned with Opus 4.6, Sonnet 4.6, Sonnet 5, Opus 5, and the September 1 debut of frontier models Fable 5.1 and Mythos 5.1, creating uncertainty around the next iteration’s timing. Traders price this pattern against Anthropic’s typical cadence of following flagship releases with a faster, cheaper variant optimized for coding, computer use, and agentic tasks. No official timeline, earnings commentary, or deprecation notice has emerged to accelerate expectations, though any API updates or developer conferences could shift near-term probabilities for October or December resolution dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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